Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

#261 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:48 am

If it stays beneath 15°N, I think it may very well miss the trough and go clear for the islands. If it moves north, it will hit it and follow Florence and Gordon.

x-y-no · #262 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:51 am

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS turns "Helene" northward between 40W-45W. I really don't see anything to carry this storm all the way to the Caribbean yet.

Yeah ... never even makes it as far as 50W ...

I don't think I buy quite that quick a recurvature. I'm betting on something between 55W and 60W as her furthest west.

sma10 · #263 Postby **sma10** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:If it stays beneath 15°N, I think it may very well miss the trough and go clear for the islands. If it moves north, it will hit it and follow Florence and Gordon.

Even if it stays below 15N, how do you see it going into the islands without a ridge in place?

#264 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:57 am

sma10 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it stays beneath 15°N, I think it may very well miss the trough and go clear for the islands. If it moves north, it will hit it and follow Florence and Gordon.

Even if it stays below 15N, how do you see it going into the islands without a ridge in place?

Too far south for the ridge to come into play.

#265 Postby **AJC3** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
sma10 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it stays beneath 15°N, I think it may very well miss the trough and go clear for the islands. If it moves north, it will hit it and follow Florence and Gordon.

Even if it stays below 15N, how do you see it going into the islands without a ridge in place?

Too far south for the ridge to come into play.

What you're saying doesn't make meteorological sense. Without a strong deep layer ridge to the north, you can't have deep layer easterlies to push a system westward. For a given longitude, if there isn't a strong ridge to the north, once the system reaches said longitude, it has no choice but to slow it's forward speed and acquire a more poleward component of motion.

If you're saying that the globals aren't forecasting a strong enough ridge in the central-west Atlantic in 5 days, then you might have an argument (although it would be one that I would strongly take issue with).

#266 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:12 pm

I'm really leaning towards a fish here BEFORE it reaches the islands. Why?

1) There appears to be no strong ridge for it to move past 50W. This fact is based on the global models and now the latest GFS run.
2) It's deepening and will want to go poleward, any weakness to the north will allow a turn.

My prediction is that the NHC will show more of a curvature around 50W in the next advisory. The only thing that prevented them to say it will recurve before the islands was the GFS which is now showing a recurve in the 12Z and yet again another 2006 storm is history.

DESTRUCTION5 · #267 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'm really leaning towards a fish here BEFORE it reaches the islands. Why?

1) There appears to be no strong ridge for it to move past 50W. This fact is based on the global models and now the latest GFS run.
2) It's deepening and will want to go poleward, any weakness to the north will allow a turn.

My prediction is that the NHC will show more of a curvature around 50W in the next advisory. The only thing that prevented them to say it will recurve before the islands was the GFS which is now showing a recurve in the 12Z and yet again another 2006 storm is history.

Not over to Its over...When i see a center intilized correctly and the models come into good agreement 36-48hrs before recurve time then I'll give the Fish Signal...For now...All I can say is Things change

Derek Ortt · #268 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:19 pm

GFS may not have initialized the UL to the NW, which is moving WNW

That said, recurvature at 55 to 60W seems like a safe bet. The recurvature near 40 idea seems out in right field

Derek Ortt · #269 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:19 pm

also,

NASA forgot to load dropsondes on board their flight this morning. There was supposed to be many more drops than how many actually occurred

#270 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:22 pm

Nice work NASA, hope it is not the same crew that loads toilet paper on the shuttle.

Weatherfreak000 · #271 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:23 pm

Wow we're definitely rolling now, just wonder if any home grown systems will start popping up. It appears this year is definitely favoring Deep Atlantic Development.

I have to give my hat to the mets who early on said this would likely be a fish year. Nice going guys, your getting amazing at this.

DESTRUCTION5 · #272 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:23 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Nice work NASA, hope it is not the same crew that loads toilet paper on the shuttle.

LMAO...Excuse me while i get some windex for my screen..

mike815 · #273 Postby **mike815** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:23 pm

Well u can say fish all day but im not given up on it things change and its got a long way to go. Maybe it will still have a chance. At least go more further west geez.

#274 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:24 pm

how about the next wave off Africa. Lets start a discussion it and open a new thread?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

#275 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:how about the next wave off Africa. Lets start a discussion it and open a new thread?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

Settle down gatorcane, there is plenty going on now. It looks good, but it also looks to be three days out yet.

#276 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:29 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
gatorcane wrote:how about the next wave off Africa. Lets start a discussion it and open a new thread?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

Settle down gatorcane, there is plenty going on now. It looks good, but it also looks to be three days out yet.

it would be nice to see something that moves west longer than 2-3 days this year. Seems like everything goes fishing or northbound.

All that strong ridging in the early part of the summer is a faint memory it looks like, of course the SAL was too strong then anyway.

#277 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:32 pm

I hear you my friend gatorcane, your enthusiasm in commendable. I totally agree, something to track would be nice. It is the ole catch 22, give me a long tracking intense cane that threatens no land mass.

#278 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:33 pm

Lowpressure wrote:I hear you my friend gatorcane, your enthusiasm in commendable. I totally agree, something to track would be nice. It is the ole catch 22, give me a long tracking intense cane that threatens no land mass.

Even if it this system would move west all the way to getting to just before the Bahamas and curves away would at least be something interesting to track..... 8-)

flhurricaneguy · #279 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:37 pm

i agree with you also gatorcane, but i am also glad to see we were sparred this year.

#280 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:41 pm

if you think about it, its the high number of ULLs that dominate the Atlantic this year. If they don't shear a system to bits, then they tear down subtropical ridges to allow storms to curve quicker. There is big one right now that is weakening the big subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and helping Gordon escape - and should keep this system curving once reachign 50W (since ridge won't be there anymore)

Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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