Any JB thoughts on this season and TS Helene so far

Extremeweatherguy · #21 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:52 pm

From 10am this morning he said..

-Florence will hit the Maritimes tomorrow.

-He now expects Gordon to turn out to sea instead of threatening the Bahamas.

-He thinks the disturbance (upgraded to TD 8 this afternoon) will challenge the central Atlantic trof next week.

-He thinks the wave near 40W could be a Caribbean to Gulf player in the long run.

-Eastern ridge, western trough to develop over the next few weeks.

-He thinks that hurricane season is not at all done for the USA.

..And that is basically all he said regarding the tropics today.

#22 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:55 pm

Thanks EWG! Just like that daily would be nice.

#23 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:56 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Fish, maybe Bermuda!

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... e&partner=

That's not JB's thoughts.

JB would not be involved in determining Accuweather's forecast?? I thought he was there severe weather/ tropics expert??

#24 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:58 pm

Just stop. Thoughts have been posted move on please.

rainstorm · #25 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:58 pm

wow, thats alot of thoughts

#26 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:09 pm

I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

sfwx · #27 Postby **sfwx** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:15 pm

Good stuff Mike! ( You forgot to mention that it may be a Cat. 5 before it dissipates, if it dissipates)

#28 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:16 pm

Mr. Watlins of course we care about your forecast but we can get it for free! :lol:

#29 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:18 pm

MWatkins wrote:I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

Mike excellent forecast I'm sure it will verify and it already has.

MiamiensisWx · #30 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:20 pm

MWatkins wrote:I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

Sounds like a high-confidence forecast. What are the chances of it going off the grid?

x-y-no · #31 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:22 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
MWatkins wrote:I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

Sounds like a high-confidence forecast. What are the chances of it going off the grid?

I guess it could go straight up and become space weather! :lol:

Website · #32 Postby **Brent** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:34 pm

MWatkins wrote:I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

Extremeweatherguy · #33 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:02 pm

I decided to move this post to the US weather thread..."Houston front thread".

#34 Postby **fci** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:00 am

x-y-no wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:
MWatkins wrote:I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

Sounds like a high-confidence forecast. What are the chances of it going off the grid?

I guess it could go straight up and become space weather!

Then we will page Jim Hughes!
:roflmao:

Derecho · #35 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:25 am

senorpepr wrote:That is correct... we are not to bash JB. Discussions about him and his forecasts are fine... but NOT BASHING.

One of the strangest idiosyncracies of the moderation of this site is the obsession with the term "Bashing."

Never quite certain whether it refers to any criticism of any kind (often seems to be enforced that way) and actually I've never seen an adequate argument for why there's anything wrong with "bashing" anyway.

#36 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:04 am

MWatkins wrote:I know no one really cares about my forecast path for TD8...but here it is...and this forecast has a nearly 100% chance of verifying!

It will be some place on this map in 5 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/AT_Track_chart.pdf

Since there is always a chance it could dissipate...my forecast may not verify.

MW

Are you sure? What models did you use? I will be checking your verification in 4 days to see if your right...if you are, you should start up your own website

mitchell · #37 Postby **mitchell** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:52 am

Bailey1777 wrote:Honestly I like to hear many trains of thought. I for one would love a thread where we could get a glimpse of J.B.'s thoughts without comments just his thoughts.

Today -
Lance armstrong and drug testing

Bush One after winning gulf war correctly predicted 1992 election loss

Chinese Government covers up cyclone "carnage"

Articles on Global warming leave out counter-agruments

#38 Postby **fci** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:23 am

Derecho wrote:
senorpepr wrote:That is correct... we are not to bash JB. Discussions about him and his forecasts are fine... but NOT BASHING.

One of the strangest idiosyncracies of the moderation of this site is the obsession with the term "Bashing."

Never quite certain whether it refers to any criticism of any kind (often seems to be enforced that way) and actually I've never seen an adequate argument for why there's anything wrong with "bashing" anyway.

I also dislike the use of the term "bashing". It has many definitions on this site and others ranging from :

- Any critical statements or qustioning about agencies, forecast services, Pro Mets or Mods.
Actually not reallly "bashing" to me but there is no place for any criticism of the aforementioned on this site. Which is valid to me given the audience this site has and what the owners of this site want this site to be. It is their prerogative and as members we must adhere to. I believe this site to be give and take about Weather and not a place for debate but more for opinions and thougths backed up by reasoning. If you think their policy and stance on this is wrong, start up your own site!

- Disagreement between members that becomes "personal"
I think this kind of behavior IS "bashing".
You can disagree with something someone posts (as long as it is NOT someone from the aforementioned list) but you cannot get "Personal" and attack them. Attack their opinions and shoot them down or refute them with fact but do not get personal. Phrases like "you're an idiot", "you're stupid" can be interpreted as "bashing"

So, IMO; one should not "bash" and it has no place on this board.
Neither definition I listed above is permissable in my opinion.

Please don't "bash" me for my definitions of "bashing".

weatherwoman · #39 Postby **weatherwoman** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:28 am

who ever it was that said we shouldnt talk about jb or how ever they told me was a mod but i dont know who they pm me and told me that they had to take the topic off i didnt question them.

#40 Postby **fci** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:49 am

weatherwoman wrote:who ever it was that said we shouldnt talk about jb or how ever they told me was a mod but i dont know who they pm me and told me that they had to take the topic off i didnt question them.

So check your Inbox and see who sent you the PM.
You have 2 Mods in this thread telling you that discussing JB is not forbidden but we have to keep the discussion civilized and not bash him.
It's a fair requirement as I noted in my above post.
See who sent you the PM and then PM Southerngale with who it was.

Any JB thoughts on this season and TS Helene so far

Who is online