Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Derek Ortt]

That early recurve may only be valid if Gordon does stall

[jusforsean]

anyone ever compare the directions that models have taken based on actual landfalls, ex. everytime theres a xyz landfall, the nogaps doesnt pick it up and visa versa ???? like the GFDL is great with north carolina lanfalls (for example) just wonder if any particular model or models are more prone or sensitive to certian areas of the globe for one reason or another??

[CrazyC83]

Bermudians looking at the 5 day outlook for TD8 must be starting to say to themselves, "Not again!"

Not to mention the fact such could easily be a major, possibly a Category 4, hurricane...

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the TD now it appears that it's going through some growing pains. Since it is not as well defined as it was earlier it may end up missing the trough at 45 west and continue moving west. This may bode bad for the Islands because, the system will move in the low level flow rather than move poleward if it were a stronger system. The trough that is going to set up in the west coast will prove to eventually scoot out TD8/Helene. How far west will it make before that time?

Perhaps your scenario Derek will work out better for TD8 in the future as the wave over africa will lend support and cut off the dry air intrusion into the system.

[cycloneye]

12/2330 UTC 12.4N 23.9W T1.5/2.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


No Helene tonight.

[gatorcane]

I agree, if it stays weak westward it goes - if Gordon does not stall westward it goes...

suddenly I am not so gunhoe on recurvature just yet

[Bgator]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2006 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 11:58:39 N Lon : 24:45:59 W (12N 24.8W)


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt

Different set of T-Numbers.....

[Damar91]

It's amazing what only a couple of hours can do for some peoples opinion about these fickle storms.

[Stratusxpeye]

It's amazing what only a couple of hours can do for some peoples opinion about these fickle storms.

I'm still betting a recurve though.

[Damar91]

It's amazing what only a couple of hours can do for some peoples opinion about these fickle storms.

I'm still betting a recurve though.

Probably, but with Gordon's future uncertain, the game gets a little more interesting at least.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's amazing what only a couple of hours can do for some peoples opinion about these fickle storms.

I'm still betting a recurve though.

I'm thinking an eventual recurve also.. don't get me wrong. Unless GFS gives up bringing that massive Trough in the west coast and dragging it east.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060913 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000 060914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 24.6W 12.6N 26.9W 13.6N 29.3W 14.6N 31.8W
BAMM 11.8N 24.6W 12.6N 27.2W 13.6N 30.1W 14.6N 33.3W
A98E 11.8N 24.6W 11.7N 27.3W 11.9N 30.2W 12.5N 33.0W
LBAR 11.8N 24.6W 12.0N 27.5W 12.5N 30.8W 13.1N 34.2W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 51KTS 62KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 51KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 0000 060916 0000 060917 0000 060918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 34.0W 20.5N 37.1W 24.2N 37.3W 24.8N 37.2W
BAMM 15.9N 36.4W 19.0N 41.2W 21.4N 44.2W 22.4N 46.6W
A98E 13.4N 35.8W 15.5N 40.5W 18.1N 44.1W 21.5N 46.1W
LBAR 13.8N 37.8W 16.5N 43.2W 20.0N 45.4W 22.6N 46.1W
SHIP 73KTS 92KTS 100KTS 100KTS
DSHP 73KTS 92KTS 100KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 24.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 22.0W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 18.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Bgator]

TD8 is on Storm Floater 8(not on NHC page) here it is:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float3.html

[Damar91]

Every model run seems to initialize the system farther south. That can't be good.

[Scorpion]

True, I remember everyone talking about it being at 12.5 today.

[Bgator]

Ok, the storm continues to move wsw, yet at 12 hours they move it NW, to 12.6 already....I think the models dont have a good handle on it...

[Damar91]

The models are probably still a little rusty from not having much to analyze this year. Although now it seems they will have their work cut out for them.

[cycloneye]

Refresh the graphic to get the 00:00z run of the Bam models.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, the storm continues to move wsw, yet at 12 hours they move it NW, to 12.6 already....I think the models dont have a good handle on it...

they never have good concept of TD's.

[Nimbus]

Gordon is currently leaving a weakness between the two ridges near 60W.

Both Gordon and an ULL to the northeast of Gordon are pumping up a ridge over TD8.

What would have to happen in order for TD 8 to continue west is that the ridges would have to bridge far enough north near 60 to let TD8 pass.

Stranger things have happened I would give this scenario a one in 10 chance.