Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[sma10]

Every model run seems to initialize the system farther south. That can't be good.

....and yet the models recurve the system anyway

[Scorpion]

I still think Isaac is the one to watch out for.

[Damar91]

I still think Isaac is the one to watch out for.

Yeah, watch out for the Biblical named storms!

[sma10]

It's amazing what only a couple of hours can do for some peoples opinion about these fickle storms.

Yes it is strange. Considering that the model runs are starting to converge on an even further east recurve, this sudden excitement seems a bit odd.

[beachbum_al]

I don't like I names...Isaac and Ivan. I don't like the name Ivan.

[Bailey1777]

Change could be in the wind though. The models are not all knowing and are missing on 3 factors in my opinion.

1. Initializing right, and in this case as far S. as it already is it will be important for the Islands. (possible close call)

2. ULL is influencing and holding #8 down right now. Models are not real good with these.

3, Gordon could be the biggest key here and I don't think they are positive what he is going to do so it is contaminating these model tracks.

All of this is of course (IMO)

[wxman57]

I don't think it matters very much whether TD 8 is near 12N or 11N at this point. It's moving a little south of west, not unexpected given the strong ridge to its north. Models still indicate a weakness in the ridge (trof) along 40W tht TD8/Helene will encounter whether it's at 12N or 15N. If the models are correct, then the storm should recurve regardless of its motion over the next 3 days.

Here's a 00Z color satellite. Looks like the 00Z models may have initialized a tad too far north and east. I think I can see what looks like a center near 11.5N and 25.2W (yellow circle):

[Bgator]

There may be a weakness but the models are off none the less....They take it WNW like NOW...which it isnt doing, also the BAMM and BAMS turn the storm west at the end of the forecast(yes i know they arent good models)...

[Bailey1777]

WXMAN57 I'm not questioning a curve and definetly not calling for a U.S. hit, but don't you think it could be a really close call for the Northern Islands? A curve with still some Westward component to it sure would make it tight.

[Stratosphere747]

It's almost a week from ANY impact to the islands....

Look short-range....

[wxman57]

WXMAN57 I'm not questioning a curve and definetly not calling for a U.S. hit, but don't you think it could be a really close call for the Northern Islands? A curve with still some Westward component to it sure would make it tight.

We can't rule out any threat to the eastern Caribbean. Recurvature is not as clear-cut as with Florence and Gordon, but there is tight model consensus in breaking down the ridge and keeping the storm north of the Caribbean. There are a number of factors that will come into play over the coming week. We'll just have to keep an eye on future Helene.

[sma10]

Patience grasshoppers. We've all been down this road before many times. At least I know I have.

If all the models are wrong (doubtful) then we will know soon enough, and they will start correcting for it.

[Bailey1777]

Fair enough and we appreciate your patience and time.

[HURAKAN]

So far I am happy with this season. There hasn't been a lot of activity and landfalls have left minor damages in the US. Some people only care about storms that are a menace to land and that's why they may think this season has been very quiet, but since I like to track all storms (worldwide), it's rare a week without something to keep an eye on!!!

[sma10]

Fair enough and we appreciate your patience and time.

Don't mention it.

[SouthFloridawx]

This trough progged to come out of the west from this.



This is the same trough that Joe Bastardi is talking about bringing a major front with it into the Gulf.

Even if Helene were to make it farther west it would be kind of hard to escape the wrath of this trough. This should only be a threat to the islands. I don't make statements much and I don't like to do long range forecasting but, I know this much... As long as this keeps coming from GFS... Helene may only make it to the Islands and that is about it.

PS: This is not set in stone in my mind. I have seen GFS do this for the past couple of days. I don't think it's just a glitch and as long as it's going with it then I am also. If it changes my mind will change also.

[Bailey1777]

No these troughs and the fronts attached with them have been the real deal. It has been unseasonably cool here and the birds are flying in packs like it's middle Fall. This next one will be a serious Atlantic sweeper.

[gatorcane]

the next trough is going to be an Atlantic sweeper - bye, bye Cape Verde Season in a week?

[Bailey1777]

Thats my thought they are getting stronger and stronger, short of a home grown I don't see it happening on the mainland.

[SouthFloridawx]

the next trough is going to be an Atlantic sweeper - bye, bye Cape Verde Season in a week?

That was not my synopsis and that conclusion should not be drawn. Likely Ridging will build in behind that trough and the E. Atl ridge will also build back in.