Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[gatorcane]

okay I was commenting on Bailey's comment

we are fast approaching the end of Sept by the time this trough goes through

clearly running out of time for the CV season.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Future "Helene" is popping!!!

[Pebbles]

Even if Helene were to make it farther west it would be kind of hard to escape the wrath of this trough.

Isn't this trough from the 'rements' of Ioke? I think it is but kinda lost track of it after it was near Alaska.

Edit: P.S. It's worded wrong probably but I think anyone that's been following things get my general drift I hope. Maybe it should be worded weather system? I dunno

[Derek Ortt]

there is a circ NE of the advisory position

[conestogo_flood]

Even though this is far out in question, but could this be an east coast threat or Atlantic Canada?

[sma10]

there is a circ NE of the advisory position

Is this what Blake and Avila were talking about in the 11pm discussion when they wrote:

THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS.

[Derek Ortt]

probably since there are hints of one at the NHC position

[SouthFloridawx]

There is the 00Z model outputs. I found this site through Elgin Airforce Base Links.

Here is the whole page
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Click on the appropriate run and basin.

[sma10]

00Z GFS is mildly more interesting as it moves TD8 only as far north as 20N......then drifts the system west for a little while before sweeping it out to sea towards the end of the run. Not a HUGE westward shift, but a shift nonetheless.

If the pattern as depicted in this GFS run is correct, then Derek's assertion that TD8 better gain latitude or else may prove prophetic.

[sma10]

Wow. We now have an actual spread among the models.

I've seen three 00Z global model run this evening. The UKMet says "same old, same old" turning the system NW to a 144hr position of approximately 25N 48W. The GFS also turns TD8 slightly NW but puts the skids on and slows the system down to a virtual crawl. At 144hr, the GFS has TD8 at approx 20N 50W and drifting westward. Finally, the Canadian has a different idea totally. It likes the idea of a westward runner flying across the Atlantic at a relatively low latitute and skimming the islands of the NE Caribbean. Its 144hr position is just barely NE of Puerto Rico. It should be noted that looking at the 144hr Canadian it is implied that recurvature should still occur well off the US East Coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow. We now have an actual spread among the models.

I've seen three 00Z global model run this evening. The UKMet says "same old, same old" turning the system NW to a 144hr position of approximately 25N 48W. The GFS also turns TD8 slightly NW but puts the skids on and slows the system down to a virtual crawl. At 144hr, the GFS has TD8 at approx 20N 50W and drifting westward. Finally, the Canadian has a different idea totally. It likes the idea of a westward runner flying across the Atlantic at a relatively low latitute and skimming the islands of the NE Caribbean. Its 144hr position is just barely NE of Puerto Rico. It should be noted that looking at the 144hr Canadian it is implied that recurvature should still occur well off the US East Coast.

FSUMM5 is showing the same type of solution as GFS.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/EIGHT.d1.track.png

[Zardoz]

...If the pattern as depicted in this GFS run is correct, then Derek's assertion that TD8 better gain latitude or else may prove prophetic.

It sure doesn't seem to be at the moment. It's just coming into view on the Central Atlantic loops, and it appears to be heading WSW for now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

[Bgator]

There is a floater 3 which you can easily track TD 8 up close!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float3.html


And the NOGAPS, and BAMM/BAMS now curve the system back west at the end of the foreccast....

[Bgator]

[P.K.]

Does anyone know if NAMMA will release anymore dropsondes today? I see from their page this is the last possible day for a flight before they return home.

[Thunder44]

There is a floater 3 which you can easily track TD 8 up close!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float3.html


And the NOGAPS, and BAMM/BAMS now curve the system back west at the end of the foreccast....

So are the CMC and the GFS a little bit. They create ridging behind Gordon, which they are moving now more to the NE.

There is however a large, deep-layer trough that will be coming off the US East coast around day 7 that will likely pick it up.

[wxman57]

Models continue to recurve TD 8 more quickly. And, as Derek mentioned, I think I can see what looks like a center reformation inprocess a few degrees north of the previous location, perhaps as far as 14N. Very hard to tell, though. Center looks elongated SW-NE.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hate saying this, but is there a small possibility for TD#8 to relocate her LLC under the deep convection?

[wxman57]

I hate saying this, but is there a small possibility for TD#8 to relocate her LLC under the deep convection?

Most definitely could be relocated, probably farther north.