Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Thunder44]

I hate saying this, but is there a small possibility for TD#8 to relocate her LLC under the deep convection?

Most definitely could be relocated, probably farther north.

Looking at visible images on the NRL site. I think I see a center consolidating near 13.0N 27.5W.

[cycloneye]

Continue the comments here.

13/1130 UTC 11.7N 27.5W T2.0/2.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


Thunder44 SSD puts the center more south than where you had it.

Thread #1

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060913 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 1200 060914 0000 060914 1200 060915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 27.6W 13.2N 29.9W 14.4N 32.2W 16.1N 34.3W
BAMM 11.9N 27.6W 13.3N 30.2W 14.8N 33.2W 16.4N 36.1W
A98E 11.9N 27.6W 12.0N 30.8W 12.4N 33.9W 13.2N 36.9W
LBAR 11.9N 27.6W 12.4N 30.7W 13.1N 34.0W 13.7N 37.3W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 36.1W 21.0N 37.6W 20.0N 36.2W 17.1N 34.9W
BAMM 18.1N 39.0W 21.3N 44.0W 22.9N 48.7W 23.6N 52.7W
A98E 14.6N 39.6W 16.9N 44.3W 19.6N 47.9W 22.7N 50.2W
LBAR 14.7N 40.4W 17.5N 45.1W 20.6N 48.6W 22.2N 50.3W
SHIP 64KTS 80KTS 84KTS 84KTS
DSHP 64KTS 80KTS 84KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 27.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 24.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 22.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

Continue the comments here.

13/1130 UTC 11.7N 27.5W T2.0/2.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean


Thunder44 SSD puts the center more south than where you had it.

Thread #1

Models have initialized 11.9N 27.6W. I may be wrong, it's really hard to pinpoint an exact center.

[hurricanetrack]

Also note that one of the global models, the Canadian, shows no recurvature early on- and in fact gets it under the 20/60 zone with no problem.

If the SAL keeps this thing in check, I would not be surprised to see it come much farther to the west- thus beating the 50w black hole. However, getting it to the East Coast or to the Caribbean islands is going to be tough- not unheard of, obviously, but tough. New forecast will be more west than north this time on the 5 day plot. Give it another 24 hours of low latitude movement and the globals will change their tune.

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like the big Azores High north of it is moving in tandem west with our system and could keep it on a more west course. The models always want to move it WNW or NW very early but it is moving nearly due W....

You can clearly see the ridge is moving along west slowly with our system using this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

I wouldn't bet on recurvature yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

it looks like the tail from Gordon could also prohimit a recurve!

[SouthFloridawx]

I would hate to see this thing get driven towards the Islands and then High Pressure build in before the next trough dips through.

[gatorcane]

I would hate to see this thing get driven towards the Islands and then High Pressure build in before the next trough dips through.

That is the scenario I am thinking:

1) it stays relatively weak due to nominally favored ULL winds and SAL
2) Azores High builds in a bit more westward
3) it stays below 15N (or even lower)
4) slips under the weakness and into the islands and then starts to intensify
5) starts feeling some troughs digging down of the EC
6) moves into the NW Carribean and up into the GOM possibly affecting FL

[wxman57]

Note that the shallow-layer BAM takes the depression farther to the right than any of the global models - to north of 20 degrees at 41W longitude. Just because it's weaker doesn't mean it'll head into the Caribbean. Steering flow at all levels is about the same here.

[Zardoz]

Looking pretty strong:

[SouthFloridawx]

Note that the shallow-layer BAM takes the depression farther to the right than any of the global models - to north of 20 degrees at 41W longitude. Just because it's weaker doesn't mean it'll head into the Caribbean. Steering flow at all levels is about the same here.

I know your just using it as an example but, I thought the Bamm Models were not good in this situation. With the changing steering currents and all. Just wondering, not knocking you.

[gatorcane]

still moving West as of the 11 AM advisory, there is no WNW movement that models show right now......

[Windtalker1]

still moving West as of the 11 AM advisory, there is no WNW movement that models show right now......

Already West of the NHC forcast points.

[Sanibel]

Straight formula:


In a recurvature year Gordon plows a big weakness into the already existing weakness pattern.

Simple recurve scenario.

it looks like the tail from Gordon could also prohimit a recurve!

Wrong. The tail from Gordon is literally the road stripes of the weakness.

[gatorcane]

latest discussion verifies what I was thinking about the models. Islands are not out of the woods by any means yet:

This ought to get the board jumping again about TD 8

ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH IS A LEFT OUTLIER BRINGING THE CYCLONE
TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 120 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A PAST TENDENCY OF
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONES TOO FAR NORTH IN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or do these models not refect the same trend that Gordo and Flo did...Im not seeing any decisive exit...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[gatorcane]

Is it me or do these models not refect the same trend that Gordo and Flo did...Im not seeing any decisive exit...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I agree and if you look at the latest NHC cone there is an ever so slight bend to the left at the very end of the track. Did anybody notice that?

[Stratosphere747]

latest discussion verifies what I was thinking about the models. Islands are not out of the woods by any means yet:

This ought to get the board jumping again about TD 8

ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH IS A LEFT OUTLIER BRINGING THE CYCLONE
TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 120 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A PAST TENDENCY OF
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONES TOO FAR NORTH IN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

Being that is almost two weeks from ANY CONUS threat...I sure hope a statement such as this would not get the "board jumping"

The folks in the islands may need to keep the corner of their eye open...

[flhurricaneguy]

has anyone seen the latest bam models shifting to the west?