Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Derek Ortt]

I think you may have one of the multiple circs, Chris.

I am getting a center close to the NHC position

[Derek Ortt]

the NOGAPS turns this back west at the end of the period, though with no Bermuda high, nearly impossible for this to make it past Puerto Rico

[jaxfladude]

So its looking to be west bound and not recurve? I'm not liking the sound of that, added to the shear size of this thing!

If this tropical system is anything the size of Jeanne or Frances and makes landfall near where those two hurricanes did, I might get some nasty weather and quite a few people that live in my city(Jacksonville, Florida) may experience a loss of power for up to a week along with fallen tress into houses, it was a major inconvenience to all up up here.

Edit:

the NOGAPS turns this back west at the end of the period, though with no Bermuda high, nearly impossible for this to make it past Puerto Rico

That makes me feel better, thanks ;>)

[cycloneye]

13/1800 UTC 13.1N 30.0W T2.0/2.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

wxman57,you are right about reformation at the position you mentioned.

[craptacular]

I think you may have one of the multiple circs, Chris.

I am getting a center close to the NHC position

I'm looking at the visible loop on Floater 3. I can easily see the circulation that wxman57 is seeing (near 13N 30W). However, I can also see hints of circulation centers elsewhere, although no one or two other spots jumps out at me as much as the one wxman pointed out. Derek, how many other circs are you spotting at the moment?

[wxman57]

I think you may have one of the multiple circs, Chris.

I am getting a center close to the NHC position

Where's that, Derek? To me, it looks like the center is reforming closer to the heavier convection to the north of the NHC position. I don't see any low clouds streaming into a center south of 13N. In any case, it really doesn't matter a heck of a lot whether it's at 12N or 13N as far as the potential track.

[Damar91]

I think you may have one of the multiple circs, Chris.

I am getting a center close to the NHC position

Where's that, Derek? To me, it looks like the center is reforming closer to the heavier convection to the north of the NHC position. I don't see any low clouds streaming into a center south of 13N. In any case, it really doesn't matter a heck of a lot whether it's at 12N or 13N as far as the potential track.

Any changes to that track coming, or pretty much the same as earlier?

[Thunder44]

I also see the center more defined at 13N 30W.

[Derek Ortt]

I am seeing something at 12.2 and about 30W

[jhamps10]

well at least we have one thing nailed down. 30W, I'm seeing something around 12.5N.

Doesn't this seem awfully south for an automatic fish?

[cycloneye]

In other words if Chris and SSD are at 13 and Derek is at 12,it means there is not one center yet consolidated.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060913 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 1800 060914 0600 060914 1800 060915 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 29.9W 13.2N 32.8W 14.1N 35.5W 15.2N 37.8W
BAMM 12.6N 29.9W 13.2N 33.0W 14.1N 36.0W 15.1N 38.5W
A98E 12.6N 29.9W 12.8N 33.2W 12.9N 36.4W 13.3N 39.3W
LBAR 12.6N 29.9W 13.0N 33.3W 13.6N 36.8W 14.2N 40.2W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS 61KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 1800 060916 1800 060917 1800 060918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.8N 39.3W 20.1N 41.1W 22.3N 42.3W 24.8N 44.0W
BAMM 16.5N 40.4W 19.6N 42.7W 21.5N 45.3W 23.5N 48.0W
A98E 14.1N 41.7W 14.7N 44.8W 15.7N 46.5W 18.8N 48.0W
LBAR 15.0N 43.4W 16.6N 47.8W 17.9N 49.3W 22.6N 48.6W
SHIP 71KTS 89KTS 94KTS 95KTS
DSHP 71KTS 89KTS 94KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 29.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 26.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 23.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[craptacular]

I am seeing something at 12.2 and about 30W

Yeah, I can see what you're talking about. I thought I also saw something slip by the 30W line just south of 12.5 from 16:15 to 17:15 ... that may be what jhamps10 pointed out. Finally, this one is probably wrong, but it looked like something may have even been spit out to the SW down in the area of 10N 32.5W.

[Derek Ortt]

and the AF is at 13.6N

[Lowpressure]

Models are going to start to hate this system until a clear dominant LLC takes shape. I am in the camp of not saying fish too fast. Sharp trough moving through Piedmont currently, do not see anything breaking through that, but Islands esp north should monitor carefully. Those saying fish so loud might be cautious with this one, especially with any adjustment more south. I almost see a nw course followed by a flattening out towards the west for a while anyway.

[sma10]

All the ideas put forth here today are interesting. However, none of them address the most important long-term issue (the one that Derek recently mentioned): There is no Western Atlantic high! You cannot fight physics. Eventually (whether it be 50W or 60W) this storm has no choice but to go north. All talk of reaching the US Coast is fantasy.

Someone show me a strong high building in the Western Atlantic in the 5-7 day period and now you're talking.

[Evil Jeremy]

5 days is still a while! ridges can grow as fast and unpredicted as they can weaken!

[Derek Ortt]

ridges do not just magically grow, Jeremy

There is 0 evidence for any type of Bermuda high. You CANNOT ignore a unanimous opinion by the global models

[x-y-no]

All the ideas put forth here today are interesting. However, none of them address the most important long-term issue (the one that Derek recently mentioned): There is no Western Atlantic high! You cannot fight physics. Eventually (whether it be 50W or 60W) this storm has no choice but to go north. All talk of reaching the US Coast is fantasy.

Someone show me a strong high building in the Western Atlantic in the 5-7 day period and now you're talking.

Well, in talking about the possibility of a long-tracker, I for one haven't meant to imply anything more than a potential threat for the leeward islands at this point.

It's certainly true that the long range ensembles at this point don't hint at any ridging to steer it towards CONUS.

[Evil Jeremy]

ridges do not just magically grow, Jeremy

There is 0 evidence for any type of Bermuda high. You CANNOT ignore a unanimous opinion by the global models

im just saying that things can still change!