Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[wxman57]

the recurve out to sea is definitely not set in stone and this latest discussion leaves the possibility of no recurvature still.

I don't think that the NHC is suggesting that it won't recurve before reaching the eastern U.S., just that recurving may not occur with the first trof around 40-45W. May have to wait for the 2nd trof around 50-55W.

[gatorcane]

the recurve out to sea is definitely not set in stone and this latest discussion leaves the possibility of no recurvature still.

I don't think that the NHC is suggesting that it won't recurve before reaching the eastern U.S., just that recurving may not occur with the first trof around 40-45W. May have to wait for the 2nd trof around 50-55W.

and that is SO far out, I'm not so sure it will be there at that time.....

[cycloneye]

[fci]

OR it will be there at the time.

Derek was pretty definitive that there is no Bermuda High to force this west long term and not have it turn poleward.

And the models are pretty clustered with the recurvature

Until there are some models that show it NOT recurving, I will presume that it will
Something has to prove to be the EXCEPTION to the RULE!

[Opal storm]

I know it's far out but IMO looks like Bermuda may have another storm to deal with, if it goes more west a trof will sweep it right over Bermuda.

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at the NHC track, at the end of the period has a bend back towards the west northwest

[sma10]

ut oh...track is bending left on some of the models

Which models are these that are "bending left?"

And why would that necessarily mean "ut oh?"

the recurve out to sea is definitely not set in stone and this latest discussion leaves the possibility of no recurvature still.

I think that we are in agreement that the storm will NOT recurve in the next 5 days.

It's what happens AFTER the 5 day forecast that I've been talking about. Some people think that the turn back to the west around 50W is some sort of ominous symbol. At that point it will still be almost 1000 miles from Puerto Rico and almost 2000 miles to Florida. Don't you think that's an awful long way for a storm to travel westward without a Bermuda High?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not a contrarian. If the models even hinted that a strong high would build on top of the system, I'd be tooting that horn. But right now, by far the most likely scenario is for this storm to turn towards the NW, slow down considerably, meander slowly to the west for awhile, (the GFS shows it meandering for days) and then get kicked out to sea eventually.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_08.gif

do some ,odels include the NOGAPS, GFDN, BAMS, and the AEMN,

[jabber]

I think your key word here is should I will keep one eye on it till its above 30.

Here are the latest model plots. Fairly tight consensus for moving north of 20N around 45W or even farther east. No Caribbean threat indicated. The slight bend WNW at the end will be due to a brief period when high pressure may block it a little. But another approaching trof should pick it up and turn it out to sea.

[wxman57]

I think that we are in agreement that the storm will NOT recurve in the next 5 days.

It's what happens AFTER the 5 day forecast that I've been talking about. Some people think that the turn back to the west around 50W is some sort of ominous symbol. At that point it will still be almost 1000 miles from Puerto Rico and almost 2000 miles to Florida. Don't you think that's an awful long way for a storm to travel westward without a Bermuda High?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not a contrarian. If the models even hinted that a strong high would build on top of the system, I'd be tooting that horn. But right now, by far the most likely scenario is for this storm to turn towards the NW, slow down considerably, meander slowly to the west for awhile, (the GFS shows it meandering for days) and then get kicked out to sea eventually.

You are correct. I encourage everyone to take a look at the very deep upper-level trof moving off the east U.S. Coast on the 20th. That's what TD 8/Helene will run into around 50-55W. There's little chance of any significant westward movement beyond the NHC's 5-day point. Yeah, it may slow down for 36 hours or so, but once the major trof approaces it'll be shooting off to the north. Very slim chance of anything else happening.

So that's good news, another fish, right? RIGHT?

[Derek Ortt]

like the 1981 hurricane season

[Sanibel]

TD8 getting ready for business.

Season warming up now.

There's another one right behind it possibly.

[Thunder44]

Take a look at the big trough here wxman57 is talking about:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Where you see that circle in with the "x" in the Central Atlantic is where TD 8 is forecasted to be by the GFS is at 7 days.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have been talking about that trough in this thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89661

[jaxfladude]

like the 1981 hurricane season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Atlan ... ane_season
I see what you mean.look at the names of that year's list......man, some future historic hurricanes .......

* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Dennis
* Emily
* Floyd
* Gert



* Harvey
* Irene
* Jose
* Katrina
* Lenny (unused)
* Maria (unused)
* Nate (unused)



* Ophelia (unused)
* Philippe (unused)
* Rita (unused)
* Stan (unused)
* Tammy (unused)
* Vince (unused)
* Wilma (unused)

[fci]

like the 1981 hurricane season

Wow you're not kidding.
Including TS Dennis which ended up not a whole lot unlike Ernesto but 13 days earlier in the season.

Eerily similar (in a good way).

[storms in NC]

You are correct. I encourage everyone to take a look at the very deep upper-level trof moving off the east U.S. Coast on the 20th. That's what TD 8/Helene will run into around 50-55W. There's little chance of any significant westward movement beyond the NHC's 5-day point. Yeah, it may slow down for 36 hours or so, but once the major trof approaces it'll be shooting off to the north. Very slim chance of anything else happening.

So that's good news, another fish, right? RIGHT?

As far out that it is I wouldn't count my chickens before they hached. You may be very right and hope you are. But I wouldn't count on it till it gets a littler closer to the west before I would make a call on the track 10 days out. You can 5 day some what but not 10 sorry to many things can happen in weather. But you are the promet not me. I don't have what you have to make a call like that. With it only being at around 12-13 north that is low to call for a fish storm this early.JIMO

[wxmann_91]

like the 1981 hurricane season

That's what I thought of immediately also. Had Florence not formed, Gordon might not have been a fish.

[canetracker]

You are correct. I encourage everyone to take a look at the very deep upper-level trof moving off the east U.S. Coast on the 20th. That's what TD 8/Helene will run into around 50-55W. There's little chance of any significant westward movement beyond the NHC's 5-day point. Yeah, it may slow down for 36 hours or so, but once the major trof approaces it'll be shooting off to the north. Very slim chance of anything else happening.

So that's good news, another fish, right? RIGHT?

As far out that it is I wouldn't count my chickens before they hached. You may be very right and hope you are. But I wouldn't count on it till it gets a littler closer to the west before I would make a call on the track 10 days out. You can 5 day some what but not 10 sorry to many things can happen in weather. But you are the promet not me. I don't have what you have to make a call like that. With it only being at around 12-13 north that is low to call for a fish storm this early.JIMO

Have to agree. How many times have we been told not to look at models that far out. I do very well believe this could be a fish and that WxMan's scenario is the likely one. However, just taking one storm as an example, for Katrina the models did not get it right til Thursday evening and the storm hit Monday. Sure do hope this trof develops, but am not totally relying on the models at this time.

[Evil Jeremy]

i like the storms not hitting us, but im getting a little board. can another storm at least threaten land soon! just to bring back some excitment.