Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[fci]

EJ:
Can't believe you just posted that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with EJ. I hope this bombs into a cat5 in moves with in recon range. Then recurves!!!

[Windtalker1]

EJ:
Can't believe you just posted that.

Why? Everyone is probably thinking it.

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Looking at these loops, I find it hard to believe this TD will turn NW so fast....I see a ridge building over the system right now and it is evident imo. I am more inclined to agree with Derek's forecast than the NHC's right now. Also, wasn't this TD recurving so fast dependent on Gordon moving very slowly? Well its moving out as we speak (along with the ULL).

[wxman57]

Take a look at the big trough here wxman57 is talking about:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Where you see that circle in with the "x" in the Central Atlantic is where TD 8 is forecasted to be by the GFS is at 7 days.

That's a major mid-latitude trof and a quite strong cold front that'll be pushing off the east U.S. coast early next week. It will be nearly impossible for TD 8/Helene to move west past it. And the next system behind TD 8 may recurve even earler with the mid-latitude trof across the central Atlantic by then.

It'll be quite difficult for the east U.S. Coast to be threatened for at least the next 10 days. The trof will have to push far enough to the east for high pressure to build off the east coast and return flow to set up. And then something will have to develop west of the trof axis. I do think there's a good chance of a significant east coast hit, but more likely in late September or early October.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,for the NE Caribbean Islands no threat as you see it now right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2006 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 12:43:53 N Lon : 31:31:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -23.0C Cloud Region Temp : -32.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 13:19:47 N Lon: 31:18:35 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Looking at these loops, I find it hard to believe this TD will turn NW so fast....I see a ridge building over the system right now and it is evident imo. I am more inclined to agree with Derek's forecast than the NHC's right now. Also, wasn't this TD recurving so fast dependent on Gordon moving very slowly? Well its moving out as we speak (along with the ULL).

I don't want to speak for Derek, but I think his disagreement with the NHC track is not that TD 8 won't revurve, but that the recurving will occur west of 50W instead of east of 50W. Derek, you're not saying that TD 8/Helene is a threat to the east U.S. Coast, are you?

[wxman57]

wxman57,for the NE Caribbean Islands no threat as you see it now right?

I wouldn't say 100% absolutely no threat. But if I had to quantify the chances of recurving east of the Caribbean vs. TS force winds or greater impacting the islands of the eastern Caribbean, I'd say at least a 95% chance of recurving well east of the Caribbean and a 5% chance (or less) of any impact to the islands. There just doesn't appear to be a mechanism to propel it westward past 50-55 degrees.

[gatorcane]

Take a look at the big trough here wxman57 is talking about:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Where you see that circle in with the "x" in the Central Atlantic is where TD 8 is forecasted to be by the GFS is at 7 days.

That's a major mid-latitude trof and a quite strong cold front that'll be pushing off the east U.S. coast early next week. It will be nearly impossible for TD 8/Helene to move west past it. And the next system behind TD 8 may recurve even earler with the mid-latitude trof across the central Atlantic by then.

It'll be quite difficult for the east U.S. Coast to be threatened for at least the next 10 days. The trof will have to push far enough to the east for high pressure to build off the east coast and return flow to set up. And then something will have to develop west of the trof axis. I do think there's a good chance of a significant east coast hit, but more likely in late September or early October.

late Sept early Oct??? By then high pressure ridges are quite ephemeral - so I think Cape Verde systems are less likely a threat. It certainly looks like the big long trackers are becoming less likely to affect the EC now with the synoptics in place and even into October in my opinion given climatology.

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the chances:

5% quick dissipation

40% recurve well before islands (i.e. Helene-88)

20% recurve near islands (i.e. Hortense)

15% pass through islands, stay in Atlantic (i.e. Hugo)

20% enter Caribbean/Gulf (i.e. Ivan)

[cycloneye]

13/2330 UTC 13.1N 31.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD has it as a 35kt storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This looks very good to me...Now with SSD saying 2.5 I would not be suprized. But lets see what else comes in to support it.

[jhamps10]

possible upgrade at 11?

[CrazyC83]

possible upgrade at 11?

There is a chance but I am not 100% sure they will. They need more signs to back it up. That is a sign that I will personally more likely keep it at 35 kt rather than downgrade it to 30 kt.

[jhamps10]

umm crazy, not to complain at ya, but 35 kt's IS a tropical storm. that would be a 40 MPH storm.

[Bgator]

CIMSS has the storm at 35kt storm to, but at 12.8 31.2........

[Evil Jeremy]

im live on the NRL website waiting for updates.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060914 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060914 0000 060914 1200 060915 0000 060915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 31.9W 13.9N 34.2W 14.9N 36.2W 16.3N 37.7W
BAMM 13.1N 31.9W 13.9N 34.5W 14.9N 36.6W 16.2N 38.4W
A98E 13.1N 31.9W 14.0N 35.8W 14.3N 39.3W 14.1N 42.3W
LBAR 13.1N 31.9W 14.0N 35.6W 14.8N 39.3W 15.6N 42.9W
SHIP 35KTS 47KTS 60KTS 72KTS
DSHP 35KTS 47KTS 60KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060916 0000 060917 0000 060918 0000 060919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 38.8W 20.7N 40.1W 22.9N 41.8W 25.4N 44.5W
BAMM 17.7N 39.6W 20.3N 41.4W 22.2N 44.0W 24.1N 47.1W
A98E 14.1N 44.5W 14.6N 47.5W 15.1N 49.9W 16.5N 51.9W
LBAR 16.3N 45.9W 17.5N 49.7W 18.0N 51.5W 17.8N 51.7W
SHIP 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS 100KTS
DSHP 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 31.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 24.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
TS but let's wait.

[Evil Jeremy]

who thinks that this can grow bigger than Florence did! i do!