Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[bwslaw]

Cyclone:: What's going just to your east??

[cycloneye]

Cyclone:: What's going just to your east??

That is a tropical wave interacting with an upper trough but nothing is organizing there at this time.

[skysummit]

Track with the tropical models:

[Evil Jeremy]

Track with the tropical models:

http://aycu04.webshots.com/image/5163/2 ... 069_rs.jpg

that cone in there is waaaaaay to big.


*edited by staff to make the image a link - no need to post the graphic in a quote - simply remove the [img][/img] tags to make it a link

[baitism]

Gordon should start pulling Helene up any minute.

Hmm. Gordon's circulation is so small I doubt it will affect Helene. The weakenss it leaves behind may affect her though......

[AnnularCane]

Welcome to the world, Helene!

[SouthFloridawx]

I think we can say goodbye to Helene in about 5-10 days. Either way it's going out to sea.

[Robjohn53]

Good let he go to sea suits me fine. So I'll say good-bye now to he Byeeeeeee Helene

[Normandy]

Im sorry
But I just dont see a 285 heading right now, it looks to be moving pretty straight westward for now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So true

[sma10]

the GFDL seems to unrealistically slow the storm down in the first 12 hours, for reasons I am not sure of and has a track way out in right field.

That seems like a forecast I'd give to an enemy in a war, as it has little value by the looks of it and has really threw the CONU a curveball

Ahhh, but compare the GFDL with the Euro....they are very similar. Saturday 12Z: Euro 18N 42W // GFDL - 19.8N 40.8W
Sunday 12Z: Euro 20N 44W // GFDL - 21.2N 43.9W

[Derek Ortt]

I do not even consider the Euro when making a forecast... they need to start introducing a vortex shift to get the TC in the correct place. When they do that, I may start taking them more seriously

[MWatkins]

Just a note...the 0Z NOGAPS is significantly further west...the big issue long term is the handling of this east coast system...GFS wants to keep it open...whereas NOGAPS wants to close it off and bring it slowly SW as a closed...smaller and more potent...distinct low...embedded in a much higher overall pressure environment.

Wish I could stay up to see how the UKMET model plays out...but for now anyone wanting to watch the middle term track of Helene...watch the EC system and how it evolves over the weekend. This...and Gordon getting out of the pattern...could become the two keys to this system...as some sort of ridging should start to build in after 5 days...

MW

[gatorcane]

Just a note...the 0Z NOGAPS is significantly further west...the big issue long term is the handling of this east coast system...GFS wants to keep it open...whereas NOGAPS wants to close it off and bring it slowly SW as a closed...smaller and more potent...distinct low...embedded in a much higher overall pressure environment.

Wish I could stay up to see how the UKMET model plays out...but for now anyone wanting to watch the middle term track of Helene...watch the EC system and how it evolves over the weekend. This...and Gordon getting out of the pattern...could become the two keys to this system...as some sort of ridging should start to build in after 5 days...

MW

Mike seems like as each day goes by Helene wants to bend more West. Looks to be a west runner to me and there is no way that 10 days out these models can be so accurate in forecasting a trough..

Just think everybody was saying "she'll recurve at 45W." Well that is not happening....looks like Helene could be a factor down the road as ridging is now building in as Gordon is exiting in the North Atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just a note...the 0Z NOGAPS is significantly further west...the big issue long term is the handling of this east coast system...GFS wants to keep it open...whereas NOGAPS wants to close it off and bring it slowly SW as a closed...smaller and more potent...distinct low...embedded in a much higher overall pressure environment.

Wish I could stay up to see how the UKMET model plays out...but for now anyone wanting to watch the middle term track of Helene...watch the EC system and how it evolves over the weekend. This...and Gordon getting out of the pattern...could become the two keys to this system...as some sort of ridging should start to build in after 5 days...

MW

Mike,

Have the other models brought down a massive trough & front into the Southeast US that you have noticed?

GFS could be off but, has been fairly persistent with the West Coast Troughing and the propagating of this feature eastward.

[sma10]

I do not even consider the Euro when making a forecast... they need to start introducing a vortex shift to get the TC in the correct place. When they do that, I may start taking them more seriously

That's interesting I never knew that about the Euro. I was always under the impression that it was a solid model for the tropics.

Do you know how much weight it is given by NHC?

[sma10]

Just a note...the 0Z NOGAPS is significantly further west...the big issue long term is the handling of this east coast system...GFS wants to keep it open...whereas NOGAPS wants to close it off and bring it slowly SW as a closed...smaller and more potent...distinct low...embedded in a much higher overall pressure environment.

Wish I could stay up to see how the UKMET model plays out...but for now anyone wanting to watch the middle term track of Helene...watch the EC system and how it evolves over the weekend. This...and Gordon getting out of the pattern...could become the two keys to this system...as some sort of ridging should start to build in after 5 days...

MW

That is good info MW. Something to look at down the road.

These are the kinds of subtle shakeups to look for if Helene is going to present any surprises next week.

Re: the Gordon issue. I think Gordon is a huge key. If Avila is correct and Gordon does slow down significantly in the coming days, I have no doubt it will impart a significant northerly component on Helene.

[Derek Ortt]

it does not make up part of the CONU, from reading the dicussions, its mentioned about as much as the Canadian (less than half of the time)

[gatorcane]

I do not even consider the Euro when making a forecast... they need to start introducing a vortex shift to get the TC in the correct place. When they do that, I may start taking them more seriously

That's interesting I never knew that about the Euro. I was always under the impression that it was a solid model for the tropics.

Do you know how much weight it is given by NHC?

sma10....looks like some ridging is suddenly coming into play. What do you think about that?

I think Helene will be the storm of 2006.....just my feeling.

[AJC3]

I do not even consider the Euro when making a forecast... they need to start introducing a vortex shift to get the TC in the correct place. When they do that, I may start taking them more seriously

In the deep tropics perhaps. However when in comes to forecasting a system with the potential to encounter the westerlies, given it's historically superior AC scores with mid latitude 500MB height fields, it certainly has some utility and deserves some pretty healthy respect IMNSHO.