Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

#741 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:44 pm

for what?

#742 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:45 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:I guess everyone is right then as far as position.

When meteorologists can't agree on a position it tells you something about its organization.

Thunder44 · #743 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:you might be seeing an MLC at 14.1. I agree that there is turning, without a doubt where you put the center. but upon zooming a GARP loop up, I am seeing turning where I put the center as well, along with inflow into that turning, leading me to believe that what you are seeing is either a vortex rotating around the center, or an MLC

And of course, every single flipping microwave pass missed Helene recently

Actually, I'm starting to see what you are seeing too. 18:15 image showed that center at 14.1 turn to west, as if it was looping around another center further south. SSD may be tracking this "center" too

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html

Bgator · #744 Postby **Bgator** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:53 pm

Hmm i see a more WNW motion, but looking at 500mb analysis there is still a strong ridge on top of it...Can anyone explain this?

#745 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:56 pm

NRL has it at 18:00z at 14.0n-37.0w.So which is the real center here?

#746 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:58 pm

looks like it has resumed a more W heading at about 275 over the past hour or so.....

#747 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:59 pm

You can clearly see the ridge above Helene building in West underneath Gordon now....I don't see quick recurvature at all still...it could get very close to the islands I'm thinking:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Derek Ortt · #748 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:01 pm

I am fairly confident that 14.0N is not even close at the present time

Changes nothing though regarding the eventual track. Only way for this to not be picked up by the massive trough is to basically crash into S America, which is not oging to happen

flhurricaneguy · #749 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:04 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I am fairly confident that 14.0N is not even close at the present time

Changes nothing though regarding the eventual track. Only way for this to not be picked up by the massive trough is to basically crash into S America, which is not oging to happen

are there multiple circulations?

#750 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I am fairly confident that 14.0N is not even close at the present time

Changes nothing though regarding the eventual track. Only way for this to not be picked up by the massive trough is to basically crash into S America, which is not oging to happen

I don't know, Derek. Very strong spin at 14.1N/36.8W now. COnvection building just west of that point, too. Could be there is a weak LLC south of there, but the LLC would more likely relocate north below the strong mid-level center (if that's what it is" and building convection.

But, as you say, it makes no difference as far as the eventual track. Still looks like it'll recurve well east of the Caribbean and then head out to sea between 50-55W with that massive trof approaching in 5-6 days.

#751 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:06 pm

So the majority is speaking of a "massive trough". I guess we're in store for a little cooler weather in the next 5 - 7 days then?

#752 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:10 pm

Here's a McIDAS visible shot of where I place the center. Yellow arrows indicate low and mid-level cloud motions:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene11.gif

Frank2 · #753 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:14 pm

If you look at this loop, the entire system appears to be moving WNW - it shouldn't be too much longer before it starts to turn NW...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Bgator · #754 Postby **Bgator** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:18 pm

Can a pro met explain to me why this is moving wnw, when there is a storng high over it right now...

Scorpion · #755 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:22 pm

Thats one huge circulation. Hopefully it can organize somewhat. I would love to see a large fish hurricane out of this.

DESTRUCTION5 · #756 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:Thats one huge circulation. Hopefully it can organize somewhat. I would love to see a large fish hurricane out of this.

I agree..Maybe we can get an Atlantic Inoke out of this..

Thunder44 · #757 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:30 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Thats one huge circulation. Hopefully it can organize somewhat. I would love to see a large fish hurricane out of this.

I agree..Maybe we can get an Atlantic Inoke out of this..

I don't think it will get very strong in the tropical atlantic. It's large size and fast movement is making intensification process slower. Once it curves out in around where Gordon is now or just to the east, it may be become a Cat 3.

#758 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:38 pm

prpo mets are arguind wit heathother again!

#759 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:40 pm

On SSD RGB there's a very obvious center, and it looks to be at Wxman57's location. Motion is well N of due west.

#760 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:42 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:prpo mets are arguind wit heathother again!

What???

Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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