Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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CronkPSU
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#761 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:49 pm

fwbbreeze wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:prpo mets are arguind wit heathother again!


What??? :uarrow:


pro mets are arguing with each other again, I have on occasion typed a bit too fast as well so it was easy for me to translate :lol:
Last edited by CronkPSU on Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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#762 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:54 pm

The pro mets are not arguing each other.Only some discrepancies about the position of the mean center but I dont see that they are tearing themselves apart at all.This very small difference does not change the big picture about the future track is concerned.
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#763 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:56 pm

Pro mets can have different opinions too, I do not see any arguing here.
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#764 Postby Windtalker1 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:09 pm

Back to the topic please (although that was funny) :lol:
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Josephine96

#765 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:11 pm

:lol: Good thing we're laughing though with it being such a slow season. This time last year we were watching things walking on egg shells..
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Derek Ortt

#766 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:29 pm

well... whatever it has been doing, it has again increased its forward speed, may have just seen a couple of centers rotating around each other

we should know in a few hours where the real center is... assuming that QS does not follow the lead of the microwave passes and flat out miss the center
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Damar91
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#767 Postby Damar91 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:29 pm

I'm sorry, I still see a pretty definite West movement.
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#768 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:37 pm

Josephine96 wrote::lol: Good thing we're laughing though with it being such a slow season. This time last year we were watching things walking on egg shells..


At this point last year we were up to Ophelia...

As for Helene, I am still sticking to a general west to west-northwest motion maintained...I still think it will come close to the Leeward Islands (as a major hurricane), maybe not a direct hit but some impact nonetheless...
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#769 Postby Zardoz » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:43 pm

Damar91 wrote:I'm sorry, I still see a pretty definite West movement.

It does appear to be due west in this loop, though it's a bit hard to determine the exact center:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
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Brent
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#770 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:43 pm

NHC says WNW at 16 at 5pm.
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Evil Jeremy
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#771 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:44 pm

this time last year we were about to deal with Rita!
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#772 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:48 pm

yep, and just finished with katrina
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#773 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:48 pm

according to climatology, im gonna give it a 95% chance of being a Major Fish
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#774 Postby caribepr » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote: As for Helene, I am still sticking to a general west to west-northwest motion maintained...I still think it will come close to the Leeward Islands (as a major hurricane), maybe not a direct hit but some impact nonetheless...


What do you base that thinking on?
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#775 Postby Bgator » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:10 pm

Looking at storm floater 3 i see that helene has now started to turn West again...At the beginning of the loop it was more wnw, but the last frames were west...
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Derek Ortt

#776 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:11 pm

I'm seeing the same which is why I believe that was just a vorticy rotating around the actual center
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#777 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'm seeing the same which is why I believe that was just a vorticy rotating around the actual center


So the 5 PM NHC position is correct?
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#778 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:13 pm

CrazyC83 has a thread about his Helene predictions, has been doing a nice job on analysis, his thread would answer his track reasoning.
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Josephine96

#779 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:16 pm

I think the Islands really need to watch her. I don't entirely agree with the NHC's path. It would have to start going NW very soon for that..
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Derek Ortt

#780 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:18 pm

I believe it is still a little to the south. That is why I hope that the QS pass hits the center tonight
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