Tropical Storm Gordon=Last Advisory Written by NHC
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
...GORDON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW MOVING NORTH...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...815 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...58.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
...GORDON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW MOVING NORTH...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...815 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...58.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
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#neversummer
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A HURRICANE...FORECAST TO SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER
WATER...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES...
905 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE
2006 SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 57.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A HURRICANE...FORECAST TO SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER
WATER...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES...
905 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE
2006 SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 57.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE
OBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC. THE OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
GORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
ALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...
THESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE
UK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 24.4N 57.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE
OBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC. THE OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
GORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
ALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...
THESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE
UK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 24.4N 57.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 130853
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE IN POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A
0544 UTC CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 63 KT...SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. GORDON HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SHIPS CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT UNTIL GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINS...PROBABLY IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...DUE TO
INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/7...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THE SHORT TERM...AS GORDON MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW GORDON SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 2 OR 3 AS
THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE LIFTS OUT.
THE MOVEMENT OF GORDON BEYOND THAT POINT WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4
BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST
NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.1N 57.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.4N 57.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 57.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 29.7N 56.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 30.9N 55.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 32.5N 54.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 34.0N 52.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 36.5N 49.5W 45 KT
WTNT42 KNHC 130853
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE IN POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A
0544 UTC CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 63 KT...SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. GORDON HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SHIPS CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT UNTIL GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINS...PROBABLY IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...DUE TO
INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/7...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THE SHORT TERM...AS GORDON MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW GORDON SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 2 OR 3 AS
THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE LIFTS OUT.
THE MOVEMENT OF GORDON BEYOND THAT POINT WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4
BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST
NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.1N 57.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.4N 57.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 57.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 29.7N 56.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 30.9N 55.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 32.5N 54.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 34.0N 52.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 36.5N 49.5W 45 KT
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HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 57.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 57.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 57.9W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 57.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 57.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 57.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 57.9W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 57.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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#neversummer
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- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...
970 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...
970 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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#neversummer
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- Posts: 38110
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
GORDON HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77
KT...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE SINCE THE 1145 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
GORDON HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ONLY TAKE GORDON
TO AROUND 85 KT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES GORDON CONSERVATIVELY
TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT GORDON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THIS
SEASON'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND.
WITH THAT SAID...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF COOLER SSTS AND A LESS CONDUCIVE
LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/8. GORDON IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE NORTH BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
FLORENCE TO THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GORDON WHICH IS MOST LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE
SOMEWHAT SLOW INITIAL MOTION. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE SPEED IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALONG
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 26.0N 57.9W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
GORDON HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77
KT...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE SINCE THE 1145 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
GORDON HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ONLY TAKE GORDON
TO AROUND 85 KT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES GORDON CONSERVATIVELY
TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT GORDON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THIS
SEASON'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND.
WITH THAT SAID...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF COOLER SSTS AND A LESS CONDUCIVE
LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/8. GORDON IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE NORTH BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
FLORENCE TO THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GORDON WHICH IS MOST LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE
SOMEWHAT SLOW INITIAL MOTION. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE SPEED IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALONG
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 26.0N 57.9W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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#neversummer
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- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON REACHES 110 MPH WINDS...NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
920 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N...57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 57.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 57.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.7W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 57.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON REACHES 110 MPH WINDS...NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
920 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N...57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 57.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 57.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.7W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 57.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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#neversummer
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
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- Contact:
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EYE IS CLEAR
AND HAS WARMED TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURROUNDING DEEP
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE BEING
INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT 3-HOUR
AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 5.2. SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THERE ARE NO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GORDON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS...GORDON
WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER...COOLER SSTS
AND A MORE HOSTILE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GORDON TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING PATTERN. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 27.0N 57.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EYE IS CLEAR
AND HAS WARMED TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURROUNDING DEEP
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE BEING
INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT 3-HOUR
AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 5.2. SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THERE ARE NO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GORDON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS...GORDON
WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER...COOLER SSTS
AND A MORE HOSTILE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GORDON TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING PATTERN. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 27.0N 57.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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#neversummer
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146126
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT32 KNHC 140246
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 120 MPH WINDS...MOVING
OUT TO SEA...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...
895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N...57.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 120 MPH WINDS...MOVING
OUT TO SEA...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...
895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N...57.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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- Posts: 38110
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HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 57.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 57.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 57.4W
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 57.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
GORDON HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A VERY
DISTINCT EYE. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AROUND 0000 UTC WERE ABOUT 5.5
WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ADT...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY GIVING 3-HOUR ESTIMATES OF 6.0.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105
KNOTS...WHICH IS A VALUE IN BETWEEN THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES GORDON A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT
11 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
SO CAUSING GORDON TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY DAY FOUR...AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL KICK GORDON OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 27.8N 57.1W 105 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 57.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 57.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 57.4W
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 57.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
GORDON HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A VERY
DISTINCT EYE. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AROUND 0000 UTC WERE ABOUT 5.5
WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ADT...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY GIVING 3-HOUR ESTIMATES OF 6.0.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105
KNOTS...WHICH IS A VALUE IN BETWEEN THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES GORDON A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT
11 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
SO CAUSING GORDON TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY DAY FOUR...AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL KICK GORDON OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 27.8N 57.1W 105 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
- AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
000
WTNT32 KNHC 140859
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...MAJOR HURRICANE GORDON NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.7 N...56.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT42 KNHC 140900
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
ALTHOUGH GORDON'S EYE REMAINS DISTINCT...IT HAS BECOME SMALLER AND A
LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND
TAFB OF 5.5. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DIMINISHED
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF
GORDON IS IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST GORDON MAY
BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS THROUGH DAY 2 AND LEANS
MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AFTER THAT TIME...AS SHIPS SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE TOO QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 030/11 AS GORDON CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GORDON WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS LEFT IN
AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTH OF THE
WESTERLIES. THEREAFTER...AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE INTERACTION OF GORDON WITH THESE FEATURES VARIES AMONG
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AS THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
ECMWF SHOW GORDON BEING ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
DAY 4 OR 5. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET KEEP GORDON
AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE
STRONGER INITIAL DEPICTION OF GORDON IN THESE MODELS. IF THE FIRST
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WOULD UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...SINCE IT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE ABSORPTION. HOWEVER...IF GORDON REMAINS
INTACT IT WOULD LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINLY WHICH
OF THESE SCENARIOS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ASSUMES GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE SYSTEM AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 28.7N 56.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 30.1N 55.6W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 31.4N 54.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 32.3N 53.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 32.8N 53.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 34.5N 51.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 38.0N 46.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
WTNT32 KNHC 140859
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...MAJOR HURRICANE GORDON NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.7 N...56.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT42 KNHC 140900
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
ALTHOUGH GORDON'S EYE REMAINS DISTINCT...IT HAS BECOME SMALLER AND A
LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND
TAFB OF 5.5. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DIMINISHED
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF
GORDON IS IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST GORDON MAY
BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS THROUGH DAY 2 AND LEANS
MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AFTER THAT TIME...AS SHIPS SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE TOO QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 030/11 AS GORDON CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GORDON WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS LEFT IN
AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTH OF THE
WESTERLIES. THEREAFTER...AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE INTERACTION OF GORDON WITH THESE FEATURES VARIES AMONG
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AS THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
ECMWF SHOW GORDON BEING ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
DAY 4 OR 5. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET KEEP GORDON
AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE
STRONGER INITIAL DEPICTION OF GORDON IN THESE MODELS. IF THE FIRST
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WOULD UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...SINCE IT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE ABSORPTION. HOWEVER...IF GORDON REMAINS
INTACT IT WOULD LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINLY WHICH
OF THESE SCENARIOS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ASSUMES GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE SYSTEM AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 28.7N 56.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 30.1N 55.6W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 31.4N 54.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 32.3N 53.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 32.8N 53.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 34.5N 51.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 38.0N 46.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
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HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 55.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 55.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 56.2W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 55.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 55.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 55.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 56.2W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 55.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE...NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES...
905 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N...55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
GORDON REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE AND AN
EYE TEMPERATURE NEAR 16 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT SOUTH-
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT...AND 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS WERE AROUND 115 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT.
THE LAST COUPLE OF INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS
GETTING DEEPER...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...GORDON'S INTENSITY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT GORDON
HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH
5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER WATERS...SHEAR...AND A HOSTILE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING
CURRENTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE PULLS OUT AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
GORDON WEAKENS. AFTER 72 HOURS....THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND
GFDL ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 29.5N 55.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE...NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES...
905 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N...55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
GORDON REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE AND AN
EYE TEMPERATURE NEAR 16 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT SOUTH-
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT...AND 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS WERE AROUND 115 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT.
THE LAST COUPLE OF INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS
GETTING DEEPER...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...GORDON'S INTENSITY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT GORDON
HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH
5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER WATERS...SHEAR...AND A HOSTILE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING
CURRENTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE PULLS OUT AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
GORDON WEAKENS. AFTER 72 HOURS....THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND
GFDL ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 29.5N 55.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 54.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 54.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 55.3W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 54.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...HURRICANE GORDON MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...
970 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.2 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNING. A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS
EARLIER TODAY AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH
FIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
MOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WITH THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 30.2N 54.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 54.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 54.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 55.3W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 54.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...HURRICANE GORDON MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...
970 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.2 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNING. A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS
EARLIER TODAY AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH
FIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
MOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WITH THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 30.2N 54.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...GORDON STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...
1015 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.6 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 54.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 54.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 54.6W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 54.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
A LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A
CLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER
AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A
SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 30.6N 54.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006
...GORDON STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...
1015 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.6 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 54.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 54.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 54.6W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 54.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
A LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A
CLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER
AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A
SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 30.6N 54.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006
...GORDON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES...
1095 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...31.1 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 53.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
TREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
GORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE
STEERING CURRENTS. GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH
WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE
RIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS
THEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
GORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
EXTRATROPICAL STATUS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 31.1N 53.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006
...GORDON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES...
1095 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...31.1 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 53.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
TREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
GORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE
STEERING CURRENTS. GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH
WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE
RIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS
THEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
GORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
EXTRATROPICAL STATUS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 31.1N 53.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146126
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
162
WTNT42 KNHC 152042
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF GORDON AND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE
CURRENT APPEARANCE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED A BIT FROM THIS
MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KT.
GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS
GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
GORDON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH SLOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. A DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHES GORDON...IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. BY DAY 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
LARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 31.1N 53.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 31.7N 53.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.6N 52.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 41.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTNT42 KNHC 152042
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF GORDON AND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE
CURRENT APPEARANCE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED A BIT FROM THIS
MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KT.
GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS
GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
GORDON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH SLOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. A DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHES GORDON...IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. BY DAY 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
LARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 31.1N 53.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 31.7N 53.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.6N 52.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 41.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146126
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
322
WTNT42 KNHC 160234
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
GORDON HAS BASICALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS
STRENGTHENED. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NOTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 60W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48 HORUS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CAPTURE GORDON
AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD....
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY CLOUD COVERED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE EYE HAS REMAINED DISTINCT IN
WHAT LIMITED MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP GORDON
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE AT THIS LOCATION IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ALL PERIODS...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
MODEL AT 72 AND 96 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED TRANSITION INTO A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MERGES WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 31.3N 53.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 31.7N 53.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 52.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 51.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 36.1N 48.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 40.9N 37.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT42 KNHC 160234
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
GORDON HAS BASICALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS
STRENGTHENED. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NOTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 60W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48 HORUS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CAPTURE GORDON
AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD....
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY CLOUD COVERED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE EYE HAS REMAINED DISTINCT IN
WHAT LIMITED MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP GORDON
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE AT THIS LOCATION IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ALL PERIODS...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
MODEL AT 72 AND 96 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED TRANSITION INTO A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MERGES WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 31.3N 53.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 31.7N 53.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 52.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 51.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 36.1N 48.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 40.9N 37.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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