Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Damar91]

Just to throw this in. There actually is a little climo to back up a potential U.S. hit here. The hurricane of 1928 actually made the trek all the way across the Atlantic and hit central Florida as a Cat 4 storm. One thing of note, this was not there yesterday. So the father west it goes, the more possibilites get thrown in there. Just food for thought.

[sma10]

I still think it will come close to the Leeward Islands (as a major hurricane), maybe not a direct hit but some impact nonetheless...

There really is no sound meteorological basis for this.

If I were in the Leeward Islands I would be diligent, of course, but by no means concerned.

[sma10]

Just to throw this in. There actually is a little climo to back up a potential U.S. hit here. The hurricane of 1928 actually made the trek all the way across the Atlantic and hit central Florida as a Cat 4 storm. One thing of note, this was not there yesterday. So the father west it goes, the more possibilites get thrown in there. Just food for thought.

True, but climatology takes a back seat to synoptics once a system is in place.

[hcane27]

If you will look at the graphic below .. (published with approval) you will see that over the last 4 advisories the path of Helene has not really varied much from what the NHC has forecasted .... sure it was north of Adv 9 a good bit, but that may have been one of the "center relocation issues".... otherwise it has done pretty much what was forecast .....



so ... of they have close so far .. could be they will be close in the future ...

[AnnularCane]

This silly little girl seems to like to play "Where will my center be next?" I'm not sure even Ernie shifted around this much!

[Damar91]

Just to throw this in. There actually is a little climo to back up a potential U.S. hit here. The hurricane of 1928 actually made the trek all the way across the Atlantic and hit central Florida as a Cat 4 storm. One thing of note, this was not there yesterday. So the father west it goes, the more possibilites get thrown in there. Just food for thought.

True, but climatology takes a back seat to synoptics once a system is in place.

Like I said, just throwing it out there.

[marcane_1973]

Looks like the ONLY WAY Helene has a shot to make it the U.S. if she stays on a pure West movement with no big Northwest wobbles and stays a lot further south than projected and a lot weaker than projected as well. she will then have a pretty good chance of missing the troughs and making it all the way across. By the way has anyone seen any models hinting for a stronger high pressure moving over the East coast of the U.S.??? Until that happens everything should be a fish.

[Damar91]

One last note, has anyone taken a look at the Central Atlantic satellite recently? Helene is starting to make Florence look like a small dot!

[huricanwatcher]

someone please post the most recent radar shot.. Ive been off board for while... didnt even know helene existed.

[Damar91]

someone please post the most recent radar shot.. Ive been off board for while... didnt even know helene existed.

Helene is well..... I think you can figure it out.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

[curtadams]

There's a flare of convection close to where the center is. Could be a core starting up.

[cycloneye]

A big burst of deep convection is flaring this evening.Maybe finnaly one mean center is consolidating and the intensification proccess may commence in a more rapid pace.

[Damar91]

If that is where the true center is, it is still moving west, not wnw.

[theworld]

One last note, has anyone taken a look at the Central Atlantic satellite recently? Helene is starting to make Florence look like a small dot!

OMG, it is Huge!

[Sanibel]

There's a big trough over the east coast.


Repeat: There's a big trough over the east coast.

[JonathanBelles]

There's a big trough over the east coast.


Repeat: There's a big trough over the west coast.

Repeat check on word 16!

[fci]

Is the entire area shown in the satellite above several degrees north and west covered all be Helene??
This thing looks like a beast.

One last note, has anyone taken a look at the Central Atlantic satellite recently? Helene is starting to make Florence look like a small dot!

Compare it to the little Gordon up there and it is an incredible size.

Maybe I am just not looking at this thing correctly???

[cinlfla]

There's a big trough over the east coast.


Repeat: There's a big trough over the east coast.

LOL you don't have to tell me twice

[Brent]

There's a big trough over the east coast.


Repeat: There's a big trough over the east coast.

[wxman57]

If that is where the true center is, it is still moving west, not wnw.

I can assure you it's not moving west. The direction of movement has been pretty constant at 295-300 degrees all day. West is about from 259 deg to 281 deg. I estimate the center is now near 14.4N/37.5W.

It's really hard to estimate motion unless you have some good tools. I can create satellite imagery on my workstation, build a loop, zoom in, add 1-deg lat/lon lines, set my cursor on the center, advance the imagery, then move my cursor over the final point to get a heading and speed. Using the relatively poor tools available on the Internet, it's hard to get an accurate measurement of heading and speed.

In any case, it's following right on the projected path. Won't come anywhere near the Caribbean, and it'll recurve east of Gordon's track. Of that I'm quite confident.