The weakness may only be upper level

[gatorcane]

Did anybody catch this. In other words this HUGE trough I'm hearing people talk about seems to be much more of an uncertainty tonight .........

I think this discussion should cause some alarm...if she doesn't gain some lattitude quickly before this second trough comes in then she could be westbound....

WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE THE EFFECT OF ANY NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE WAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY 96 AND 120 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA AND
CONU MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS.

[AJC3]

Did anybody catch this. In other words this HUGE trough I'm hearing people talk about seems to be much more of an uncertainty tonight .........

I think this discussion should cause some alarm...if she doesn't gain some lattitude quickly before this second trough comes in then she could be westbound....

WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE THE EFFECT OF ANY NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE WAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY 96 AND 120 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA AND
CONU MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=380


I'll quote Chris on that thread:

"Careful what you read into that NHC talk about westward movement. They're not talking about Helene coming west toward the east U.S. Coast, just stalling for a bit between trofs. They're only addressing the 96-120hr period. That's the FIRST trof they're talking about lifting out early next week. It's the second much stronger trof that moves off the east coast toward the middle of next week that'll turn Helene northward. But that's aroun day 6-7 - beyond the NHC forecast period."

No need for anything remotely resembling "alarm"

[gatorcane]

Did anybody catch this. In other words this HUGE trough I'm hearing people talk about seems to be much more of an uncertainty tonight .........

I think this discussion should cause some alarm...if she doesn't gain some lattitude quickly before this second trough comes in then she could be westbound....

WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE THE EFFECT OF ANY NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE WAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY 96 AND 120 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA AND
CONU MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=380


I'll quote Chris on that thread:

"Careful what you read into that NHC talk about westward movement. They're not talking about Helene coming west toward the east U.S. Coast, just stalling for a bit between trofs. They're only addressing the 96-120hr period. That's the FIRST trof they're talking about lifting out early next week. It's the second much stronger trof that moves off the east coast toward the middle of next week that'll turn Helene northward. But that's aroun day 6-7 - beyond the NHC forecast period."

No need for anything remotely resembling "alarm"

okay thanks didn't see that.....