Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Cookiely]

Which model do you have more faith in? Is NOGAPS better or GFDL-GFS at projecting out this far?
If the NOGAPS is correct...enough ridging
will remain between that trough and Helene to allow the tropical
cyclone to turn westward. The GFDL and GFS...however...forecast
Helene to gain enough latitude by rounding the ridge such that the
approaching trough will pick up Helene. I am not yet confident the
ridge to the north of Helene will break down that fast...so the new
official track forecast lies on the left side of the model guidance
envelope...and it is essentially identical to the previous
advisory.

[mikatnight]

Anyone know the latest (in the year) that a cape verde hurricane has ever struck Florida?

[senorpepr]

Is the blob behind Helene part of Helene?

I would tend to say that it is a part of Helene. It wouldn't be unheard of if it developed it's own circulation... but if that's the case, I'd expect it to quickly weaken or be absorbed into Helene.

[Damar91]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but the latest nogaps models actually has this thing going SW at one point. Kind of reflects what the NHC said on their last advisory.

[Windtalker1]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but the latest nogaps models actually has this thing going SW at one point. Kind of reflects what the NHC said on their last advisory.

Link Please.

[Damar91]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but the latest nogaps models actually has this thing going SW at one point. Kind of reflects what the NHC said on their last advisory.

Link Please.

Here you go, it's the light blue one.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html

[Windtalker1]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but the latest nogaps models actually has this thing going SW at one point. Kind of reflects what the NHC said on their last advisory.

Link Please.

Here you go, it's the dark blue one.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html

Well i guess he sees what i've seen the past couple days.

[Blown Away]

THE DISAGREEMENT SEEMS TO STEM FROM HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE NOGAPS IS CORRECT...ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND HELENE TO ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD. THE GFDL AND GFS...HOWEVER...FORECAST HELENE TO GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE BY ROUNDING THE RIDGE SUCH THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PICK UP HELENE. I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE WILL BREAK DOWN THAT FAST...

Let's say the NOGAPS is correct and Helene moves W, does that basically mean the N turn would just occur a little later, but still occur before the islands?

[Nimbus]

The weakness at 50w scenario didn't develop, Gordon did not stall south of 30 etc. etc. the subtropical ridge continues to build west over the islands.

The monster trough has dug down into the gulf of Mexico to about 25N back near Texas. It does not look like the trough will degrade the subtropical ridge back as far east as Puerto Rico before Helene reaches that longitude.

The zonal flow prediction for 120 hours bothered me last night, but with the trough digging it would probably be wise to just focus on the island forecast for now.

How the subtropical ridge builds and how much Helene can recurve before the ridge forces a more westerly track will be key.

If Helene spins up into a cane early, that will help pull her north but will also increase her windfield so its hard to know what to wishcast.

[windycity]

yea, thats my question. Will the north turn occur before any contact with the islands? I still say fish, and pray all of the models turn it north also.

[Blown Away]

Anyone know the latest (in the year) that a cape verde hurricane has ever struck Florida?

Jeanne, I think.

[HURAKAN]

Anyone know the latest (in the year) that a cape verde hurricane has ever struck Florida?

Jeanne, I think.

Jeanne developed in the Lesser Antilles!

[ronjon]

Judging from the past 24 hr movement and overall view of the mid-Atlantic, it looks like Helene will follow the NOGAPS predicted movement and slip under the ridge centered around 20N-55W. You can already see Gordon riding the northern perhipery of the ridge sliding E-NE. The only trough I see is around 25N-40W. Helene has already passed this one by. It appears the GFDL and GFS are under predicting the strength of this ridge (or over predicting the stength of the weakness). Will she make it to the Lesser Antilles? A close call. Even the NOGAPs has her slightly to the NE in 5 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

Which model do you have more faith in? Is NOGAPS better or GFDL-GFS at projecting out this far?
If the NOGAPS is correct...enough ridging
will remain between that trough and Helene to allow the tropical
cyclone to turn westward. The GFDL and GFS...however...forecast
Helene to gain enough latitude by rounding the ridge such that the
approaching trough will pick up Helene. I am not yet confident the
ridge to the north of Helene will break down that fast...so the new
official track forecast lies on the left side of the model guidance
envelope...and it is essentially identical to the previous
advisory.

I think the NOGAPS has been doing the best, but I'm not convinced of the west turn it shows at the end now. The UKMET has been doing well also but it has shift a bit to the right last night. If it shows the turn as well, than I may buy it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone know the latest (in the year) that a cape verde hurricane has ever struck Florida?

Jeanne, I think.

Jeanne developed in the Lesser Antilles!

It think they meant jeanne of 98

[cycloneye]

15/1145 UTC 15.6N 40.5W T3.0/3.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Anyone know the latest (in the year) that a cape verde hurricane has ever struck Florida?

Jeanne, I think.

Jeanne developed in the Lesser Antilles!

It think they meant jeanne of 98

Jeanne, 1998, didn't even make it to the Lesser Antilles!!!

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 15.6N 40.5W T3.0/3.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

5 AM Center Position by the NHC: 15.0N 40.3W

It seems the center analysed by Dvorak is to the north of the center analysed by the NHC.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't do this much but, fish fish fish! All the call signs are there.

[Derek Ortt]

The Dvorak technique does not analyse a center. That seems to be a misconceptionof the technique

The center is analyzed by mets themselves