Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Evil Jeremy]

continue here!

[Thunder44]

The same run of the NOGAPS also shows the large-deep layer trough that's out on the west coast now moving offshore by early next week. I'm sure as long at it continues to show that it won't make it go any farther west than 60W.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The same run of the NOGAPS also shows the large-deep layer trough that's out on the west coast now moving offshore by early next week. I'm sure as long at it continues to show that it won't make it go any farther west than 60W.

FWIW Nogaps has done a tremendous Job this year....

[x-y-no]

Well, looking at overnight events plus the overnight global model runs, I'm ready to shut the door completely on the lingering doubt I still had yesterday about a leeward islands scenario.

[stormchazer]

The same run of the NOGAPS also shows the large-deep layer trough that's out on the west coast now moving offshore by early next week. I'm sure as long at it continues to show that it won't make it go any farther west than 60W.

Agreed, unless the current West Coast Trough is much flatter then its projected by the models, Helene's turn is inevitable and off the east coast. The primary threat still appears to only be for Bermuda.

BTW, why is there such hostility on this site to those who talk about options that defy the consensus. I understand that if people throw out mindless forecast, there might be some impatience, but their seems to be a few on here who want to pound any suggestion that is not a regurgitation of the NHC forecast. Just my opinion, but I thought this was a forum for discussion, not an exercise in brainwashing.

I look at it this way. If the remaining storms are fish and we all just went along, this board would be devoid of any post because there would be no discussion. Let people discuss other possibilities, as long as there is some evidence to support it and lets discuss it, instead of making smart-arse remarks.

My opinion of course.

[HURAKAN]

Now that Helene has developed a well-defined center of circulation and convection is obviously more organized, should we expect rapid strengthening?

[SouthFloridawx]

The progression of the trough in the Western CONUS can be seen here in this 500mb NOGAPS loop.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006091500

Currently you can see the trough off the east coast now. Then at the end of the run notice the tight gradient off the east coast in 144 hours. This will allow for the ridge to break down and for Helene to move northward into the Open atlantic.

I would not be suprised if Helene became a Major Hurricane out there though. GFS is suggesting a decent deepening of the low. It's a good thing it is timing out this way because it could have ended up being bad for New Foundland if this system was farther west than it is now.

[Brent]

Now that Helene has developed a well-defined center of circulation and convection is obviously more organized, should we expect rapid strengthening?

Defintely looks that way. Given current trends, I expect a hurricane later today.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now that Helene has developed a well-defined center of circulation and convection is obviously more organized, should we expect rapid strengthening?

its not entirly well-defined, but i am expecting rapid intensifaction.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm hoping this one will be the large beauty of the year. Gordon looked good but, I can't wait to see if this deapening pans out. It will be awesome to see a Large Major Hurricane going out to sea where it can't hurt anyone.

As another note, here is why as mentioned by some previous posters as to the westward turn of this system towards the end of the run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 1.zoom.png

You notice here that Nogaps keeps it a weak system. If it were weak and affected the islands then the threat to high winds would diminish. However the threat of heavy rain rain is always a threat on it's own.

[Evil Jeremy]

this will be cool!

[Blown Away]

Accuweather thinking maybe more W but no threat to CONUS.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

[Sanibel]

Helene consolidating now.

Gordon has it and it is starting a noticeable pull-up.


Caribbean/GOM busted flat dry.

[Evil Jeremy]

Accuweather thinking maybe more W but no threat to CONUS.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

thats not what their cone says!

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... etype=move

[Thunder44]

FWIW 12z run of the NOGAPS is out to 84hrs, it doesn't turn it west after 20N/50W. Keeps moving WNW or NW. It doesn't weaken the shortwave trough as much and not as much ridging to the north.

[fci]

BTW, why is there such hostility on this site to those who talk about options that defy the consensus. I understand that if people throw out mindless forecast, there might be some impatience, but their seems to be a few on here who want to pound any suggestion that is not a regurgitation of the NHC forecast. Just my opinion, but I though this was a forum for discussion, not an exercise in brainwashing.

I look at it this way. If the remaining storms are fish and we all just went along, this board would be devoid of any post because there would be no discussion. Let people discuss other possibilities, as long as there is some evidence to support it and less discuss it, instead of making smart-arse remarks.

My opinion of course.

I totally share your opinion!

If a model or a Pro Met brings up a scenario that is an outlier I think it then becomes absolutely fair game for discussion; a "Bash-less" discussion. If a member just makes up an outlier, I agree that it does not belong here or warrants discussion unless there is a very valid basis for the opinion.

Same thing happened with Ernesto when one model indicated a turn towards Florida which at the time seemed ridiculous. Soneone started a thread on this model's Fla forecast and they got "flamed" (exteme bashing) for it both on the board and in chat.

So, I think it is completely valid to post a thread and/or comments when a model or Pro Met brings up an outlier!!

If all you want is a rubberstamp of the consensus then, in my opinion; watch your local Met or TWC!!!

[fci]

Accuweather thinking maybe more W but no threat to CONUS.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

Thank you for posting the link and providing information only and no commentary!

[gatorcane]

BTW, why is there such hostility on this site to those who talk about options that defy the consensus. I understand that if people throw out mindless forecast, there might be some impatience, but their seems to be a few on here who want to pound any suggestion that is not a regurgitation of the NHC forecast. Just my opinion, but I though this was a forum for discussion, not an exercise in brainwashing.

I look at it this way. If the remaining storms are fish and we all just went along, this board would be devoid of any post because there would be no discussion. Let people discuss other possibilities, as long as there is some evidence to support it and less discuss it, instead of making smart-arse remarks.

My opinion of course.

I totally share your opinion!

If a model or a Pro Met brings up a scenario that is an outlier I think it then becomes absolutely fair game for discussion; a "Bash-less" discussion. If a member just makes up an outlier, I agree that it does not belong here or warrants discussion unless there is a very valid basis for the opinion.

Same thing happened with Ernesto when one model indicated a turn towards Florida which at the time seemed ridiculous. Soneone started a thread on this model's Fla forecast and they got "flamed" (exteme bashing) for it both on the board and in chat.

So, I think it is completely valid to post a thread and/or comments when a model or Pro Met brings up an outlier!!

If all you want is a rubberstamp of the consensus then, in my opinion; watch your local Met or TWC!!!

I called the FL hit and got flamed

[Blown Away]

THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH...
UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATER.

NHC seems pretty confident this will swim only w/ the fish. It's difficult to see any other scenario than their prediction.

[fci]

Accuweather thinking maybe more W but no threat to CONUS.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

thats not what their cone says!

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... etype=move

4:00 AM cone and 9:00 AM commentary and discussion.

Can't you just leave the comments out and let people see what they have to say and leave it alone?

fci

PS- I am not an apologist or antagonist of the private service being referenced. All I want to see is as many professional opinions and forecasts as possible without passing any judgement on them.