Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gatorcane]

You want to see a real storm. Look at the EPAC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/avn.jpg

[fci]

MLB NWS:


TUE-THU...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CLEARS FLORIDA THU. NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WED THEN QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL OF THE
DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA THU.

My first reaction was, "Major League Baseball talking about weather conditions in such detail" but then Melbourne came to my head!!!

ME TOO!!!!

I thought it was Major League Baseball News!

[flhurricaneguy]

the nogaps still shows a recurve though, correct? so even with the westward trend isnt going to change the track too much?

[Thunder44]

the nogaps still shows a recurve though, correct? so even with the westward trend isnt going to change the track too much?

The 12z run shows at 144hrs has it at 21N 59W. The UK shift it little futher SW as well. Again the real kicker doesn't come until after this time frame, but I'm getting concerned about it coming close to Bermuda, before going out.

[flhurricaneguy]

well the only thing i am concerned about is florida, and it still looks good for us.

[skufful]

well the only thing i am concerned about is florida, and it still looks good for us.

All I care about is Bft, SC, and looks good for us too. Although I would not wish a hit on anyone!

[storms in NC]

What if the east coast gets a surprise visit? Just joking

[stormchazer]

What if the east coast gets a surprise visit? Just joking

Then we would care!!!!!!!!

[flhurricaneguy]

What if the east coast gets a surprise visit? Just joking

than its crow for din din

[Sanibel]

I hope the posters pondering a west track learned their lesson. In Gordon's tractor beam now.

[superfly]

It will never go west enough for EC, if the high is stronger than anticipated, it MAY reach bermuda.

[cycloneye]

15/1745 UTC 16.6N 41.7W T3.5/3.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

She's almost a hurricane.

[storms in NC]

It will never go west enough for EC, if the high is stronger than anticipated, it MAY reach bermuda.

OH my you said the wrong word. why would you do that? Don't you know to never say Never. It will come and bite you in the Butt. Trust me never say never Please. I was Joking when I post that.

[wxman57]

15/1745 UTC 16.6N 41.7W T3.5/3.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

She's almost a hurricane.

More importanly, almost north of the Caribbean. Look at the latitude on that estimate. I was going to estimate 16.6/41.9 for 18Z.

And if anyone wants to know what other significant storms passed within 65nm of that point and reached the U.S., I made a climo plot using the Coastal Services Center viewer.

Only 3 insignificant storms reached the U.S. from that point:

1. Gloria 1985
2. Isabel 2003
3. Some 1938 hurricane...

Of course, none of those storms would have been able to penetrate the deep upper trof that is forecst to block Helene's path between 50-60W. Helene is almost 100% a fish. The one chance of partial landfall might be Bermuda, but that's a stretch:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene13.gif

[jwayne]

15/1745 UTC 16.6N 41.7W T3.5/3.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

She's almost a hurricane.

More importanly, almost north of the Caribbean. Look at the latitude on that estimate. I was going to estimate 16.6/41.9 for 18Z.

And if anyone wants to know what other significant storms passed within 65nm of that point and reached the U.S., I made a climo plot using the Coastal Services Center viewer.

Only 3 insignificant storms reached the U.S. from that point:

1. Gloria 1985
2. Isabel 2003
3. Some 1938 hurricane...

Of course, none of those storms would have been able to penetrate the deep upper trof that is forecst to block Helene's path between 50-60W. Helene is almost 100% a fish. The one chance of partial landfall might be Bermuda, but that's a stretch:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene13.gif

you call the 1938 hurricane an "insignificant storm"??? that's a joke, right?

[wxman57]

you call the 1938 hurricane an "insignificant storm"??? that's a joke, right?

Of course!

[curtadams]

She's obviously strengthening - and also obviously jumping N, which is common with strengthening. All in agreement with model predictions, which showed a total fish if she strengthened and allowed a more west track with a possible affect on Bermuda only if she remained a marginal TS.

[wxman57]

Here's a last visible shot of Helene for today. Appears to be a 65-70 mph TS. Hurricane by morning, most likely. Unless there is some very strange movement over the next 12 hours, Helene will cross 20N well east of 50W.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Strong outflow jet forming over the southeast quad. Watch this strengthen nicely by 12 to 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

NRL at 18:00z has Helene at 60kts,992 mbs at 16.4n-42.2w.