Hurricane Lane - Cat. 3

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:45 pm

Go ahead with the comments and questions about the mission.

A VDM is comming in minutes.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:53 pm

I guess it will be upgraded to hurricane later today based on the VDM data.

craptacular · #3 Postby **craptacular** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:12 pm

It'll be interesting to see what they find in the NE quad on the next pass.

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:31 pm

I'm going to take a break from posting the maps for awhile. Anybody feel free to takeover.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:26 pm

76kts found.What is the reduction at this mission?

Thunder44 · #6 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:76kts found.What is the reduction at this mission?

They are flying at 700mb so the reduction would be 90%. It would equal to about 68kts at the surface.

craptacular · #7 Postby **craptacular** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:29 pm

I think that speed might have been from the eyewall, so 0.9. Otherwise, it's 0.85 for in convection.

At 0.85 , that's 74 mph.
At 0.90 , that's 79 mph.

I think we have a cane.

#8 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:43 pm

Looks like we will have Hurricane Lane at 2pm.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like we will have Hurricane Lane at 2pm.

There is no doubt.

craptacular · #10 Postby **craptacular** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:59 pm

I have a doubt now. Look at the dropsonde below. They appeared to drop it right where the 76kt FL wind was reported. However, it only found 62 mph at the surface, despite a 94 mph 700mb wind.

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: LANE (13L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF309
Observation Number: 21
Time: 1900Z
Latitude: 20.6°N
Longitude: 106.2°W
Location: 147 mi NW of Manzanillo, Mexico
Surface: 996 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 76°F; E (85°) @ 62 mph
#VALUE!
925mb height: 2113 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 69°F; ESE (115°) @ 89 mph
850mb height: 4518 ft; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 63°F; ESE (120°) @ 88 mph
700mb height: 9944 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; SE (140°) @ 94 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
EYEWALL 045 SPL 2062N10624W 1913 MBL WND 10070 AEV 20604 =

996mb winds: E (85°) @ 62 mph
988mb winds: E (85°) @ 71 mph
981mb winds: E (90°) @ 66 mph
976mb winds: E (90°) @ 69 mph
969mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 86 mph
954mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 99 mph
946mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 92 mph
928mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 89 mph
850mb winds: ESE (120°) @ 88 mph
696mb winds: SE (140°) @ 93 mph
#VALUE!

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:24 am

. TROPICAL STORM LANE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0213E LANE
C. 16/1315Z
D. 22.9N 108.4W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 71

They were supposed to be flying already but I haven't seen any obs yet.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:29 pm

Plane is getting close to Lane,so let's see how is the pressure reading as soon the VDM comes.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:18 pm

Plane found 110 kts.They are flying at 700mb so the reduction is 90%.VDM in minutes.

Scorpion · #14 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:19 pm

Pretty small area of max winds.

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:26 pm

the SE quad yesterdya had about 15-20KT weaker than the NE quad

#16 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:27 pm

Seems to remind me of Charley...

Scorpion · #17 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:38 pm

Looks like estimated pressure was just about right on. Around 952-953.

Hurricane Lane - Cat. 3

Hurricane Lane - Cat. 3

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