This will be a blow to Britain!

[Dean4Storms]

If the 18z run of the GFS comes true the Brits are going to get hammered!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[JonathanBelles]

is it florence?

[WindRunner]

No, but Florence's relatively weak low that can be seen sitting over Iceland at T+84h does contribute to this monster low. Gordon can be seen at T+132h approaching France before being absorbed into this low.

Of course, this is just one run of the GFS, and an 18Z run at that, so I'd still watch for a couple more days before getting too excited. However, if I counted right, that is a sub-958mb low at T+144h. Not your typical late summer ET low . . .

[CronkPSU]

just in time for ryder cup week!

[curtadams]

I'm a little suspicious of a run that initializes Gordon currently as a 1012 mb TD.

[P.K.]

It looks to be a mixture of Florence, Gordon and at least two other lows. The Met Office global and ECMWF models are also showing similar things. It is however a fair way out.

Britain only has one "t" in it by the way.

[nholley]

If memory serves this is around the same time of the "hurricane" of 87 that caused so much damage.

[P.K.]

That was on the 15th/16th October. Your reference to a "hurricane" might make a few people on here be rather surprised but the media still believe it was.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to be a mixture of Florence, Gordon and at least two other lows. The Met Office global and ECMWF models are also showing similar things. It is however a fair way out.

Britain only has one "t" in it by the way.

My bad, didn't even notice it. You know it looks tougher with two T's!

[WindRunner]

Well, I do believe you can refer to them (the people) as Brittons, though it is rarely used.

And GFS is being persistent, the 12Z run takes it down to a 952mb low at T+126h, though it does show "weakening" to the mid 960s before the end of the period. NOGAPS shows similar, with a 954mb low NE of the GFS peak and at T+120h, though it takes longer in developing the system and weakens it to just under 980mb before "landfalling" around the Orkneys.

UKMET and CMC show similar setups, but do not completely merge the two lows that all of these models show rotating around themselves in the vicinity of Iceland. Thus, these runs peak in the mid 970s with a much larger system. It's still 5 days out, though, a lot could change.

[HenkL]

ECMWF 12Z run indicates (ex-)Gordon will go to Portugal after 'visiting' the Azores.

[HurricaneBill]

That was on the 15th/16th October. Your reference to a "hurricane" might make a few people on here be rather surprised but the media still believe it was.

True, it wasn't a real hurricane. Although from what I've read about European windstorms, those are just as bad.

[Stormhunter27]

My brother is in Ireland for the next two weeks. He's been chasing with me a few times, so I'm sure he'll be keping me updated if this forecast verifies.

If I hear from him, I'll keep everyone updated here.

M

[Cryomaniac]

The storms of october 2000 were similar to this, I think. That was cool, it felt really intense, but there was very little damage.

I live in Britain, so I'll keep you posted if anything happens.

[Yarrah]

Interesting, KNMI says the remnants of Florence will move northwoards towards Iceland instead of hitting Britain. After that, the remnants will merge with another depression and quite a big depression will form out of it.
The following map shows the depression, along with Gordon near the Azores.

[HenkL]

The ECMWF latest 12Z run has some new ideas re Gordon. (Ex-)Gordon will still pass the Azores to the east. But then it will make a sharp turn to the NE and later on N, over the Irish Sea further to the north.