Moisture from Lane and possible TX Flood Event

Yankeegirl · #21 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:50 pm

Its very windy and very dark... Looks like its nite time!! crazy... my satallite hasnt gone out yet though... thats a good thing!!

Extremeweatherguy · #22 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:56 pm

#23 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:57 pm

Random thought. I must be getting old. They are playing the "4:00 Flashback" on The Buzz ands ong #1 was "Perfect" by the Smashing Pumpkins - now it's K's Choice. Wow.....so much for "Flashback" on the Buzz = The Smiths, etc.

Yankeegirl · #24 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:02 pm

Well what ever it was... it was a fast moving storm... its already lighting up around here. Still thundering though...

#25 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:06 pm

I'm showing a LOT of fresh lightning with this line on GRLevel3

Extremeweatherguy · #26 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:06 pm

storm seems to be exploding right now. Should be to my area soon.

JenBayles · #27 Postby **JenBayles** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:21 pm

Hey Yanks - I got about 5 minutes of rain and the Bear Creek Dome kicked in. Heading back out to start the sprinklers again....

Yankeegirl · #28 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:38 pm

Hey Jenn,

you got more than me!! I got about 20 drops of rain!!! and look the sun is back out!! :bday:

Extremeweatherguy · #29 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:03 pm

Just got a nice downpour which was proceeded by some 30-40mph gusty winds at the start. Not much lightning though. I am willing to bet this is nothing compared to what is coming this weekend and Monday though.

Extremeweatherguy · #30 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:06 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE ASSISTED TODAY`S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE GULF WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK INCREASINGLY WET AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EASILY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES...INCLUDING
THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS
TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
HAS NOW INCREASED THESE VALUES TO >2.6 INCHES! A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET AND THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING OF OUR AREA IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUAD
OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR
A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IF THIS WET TREND IN THE MODELS PERSISTS...
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN RAIN THREAT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING IN FASTER AND FASTER EACH RUN WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT AND THE DRYING FOR OUR AREA AFTER ITS PASSAGE. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT (HIGHER NEAR THE COAST)...BUT
IF THE MORE RAPID MODEL DRYING TREND CONTINUES...WE`LL NEED TO END OUR
RAINS A LITTLE SOONER. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK QUIET WITH THE COOLEST
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING (SORRY...NO 50`S YET). RETURN
FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS...WARMER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS) AND RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 42

#31 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:19 pm

Well it fell apart before it got to the house. I'm beginning to think we have a 2nd dome in South Montgomery.

Made for an interesting commute though.....

#32 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:56 pm

If y'all have been reading the NHC discussions about Lane, now a hurricane, well ... he's moving right of forecast track. This is NOT good news for us in Texas as mid and high level moisture appears more likely to be headed our way.

This potential flood event is looking more and more likely, I'd say.

We're going to have significant amounts of mid and upper level moisture, good Gulf inflow, and a fairly strong frontal boundary pushing through the state. That's all the ingredients for flash floods. :eek:

#33 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:04 pm

Two points, the moisture from Lane is extremely unlikely to make it into UT. The October 17,1994 event was from the remnants of Hurricane Rosa which moved into TX near the Big Bend at very close to TD intensity. The trough the kicked Rosa into TX came through AZ the day prior and brought and early season fall of sleet along with some snow in the mountains.

Steve

southerngale · #34 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:08 pm

When exactly is this potential flood threat expected to occur? I'll be traveling to Central Texas tomorrow and coming back either Monday afternoon/evening or Tuesday afternoon/evening. It's about a 7 hour drive.

They're in a bad drought where I'm going, but have chances of rain from Saturday night to Monday at 60%/70%/30%/20% - Saturday night and during the day Sunday seems kinda soon for Lane to affect Texas, doesn't it? (but I confess I haven't had time to keep up with this whole situation much)
They sure need some rain there though...just wish it wouldn't be when I'm there. But I've been a rain magnet lately, so I'll sacrifice to bring them some much needed rain.

Btw, there's a small shower sitting over me now, and it's pouring.

#35 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:09 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:Two points, the moisture from Lane is extremely unlikely to make it into UT. The October 17,1994 event was from the remnants of Hurricane Rosa which moved into TX near the Big Bend at very close to TD intensity. The trough the kicked Rosa into TX came through AZ the day prior and brought and early season fall of sleet along with some snow in the mountains.

Steve

Steve ... what are your thoughts on Lane and his associated moisture? Will y'all in Arizona experience some excessive weather this weekend?

#36 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:10 pm

Southerngale ... local mets here believe the worst of it for us in the Austin area is going to be Sunday night through Monday night.

We will welcome the "rain magnet" into our area!!

southerngale · #37 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:20 pm

Thanks, Portastorm. I'll be a good bit NW of you, in Brownwood, and although I can't see their local mets on TV, the NWS shows the highest chances on Saturday night and Sunday. I think your area or that area is off a little. lol

Here's what they show: NWS forecast

#38 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:12 pm

Hey Southergale, I think the front is expected to be south of Brownwood by that time. But it may be an interesting trip home.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #39 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:17 pm

Portastorm wrote:Southerngale ... local mets here believe the worst of it for us in the Austin area is going to be Sunday night through Monday night.

We will welcome the "rain magnet" into our area!!

One of our local mets here note the remanent low is going to go right over Austin/ San Antonio area. He thinks Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Corpus and the RGV could all get hamered with big time rains Sunday thru Tuesday. :eek:

#40 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:48 pm

AZ will be high and dry insofar as Lane is concerned. We had John-this one's for TX.

Steve

Moisture from Lane and possible TX Flood Event

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