Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Good question- any pro mets have an answer or what the model might be seeing?

I'm not a Pro Met but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. The GFS, GFDL and UKMET all develope a mid level cut-off low off the mid atlantic states that creates the flow that would recurve Helene. The NOGAPS doesn't develope this low and allows a small ridge to devolpe over her.

Actually to correct myself the NOGAPS also developes the cutoff low but not as strongly and it gets the feature off to the NE and out of the way very quickly.

[wxman57]

You obviously don't like the "nogaps" models, especially the one that tracks to west. Im ignorant here, so, what are "Nogaps," and why don't you like them?

I was merely pointing out that there weren't 3 models showing a little more westerly movement, it was variations of the same model, NOGAPS. The NOGAPS is the U.S. Navy's global spectral model. It has not done well in recent years. Errors have been about twice as great as some of the consensus models like CONU and GUNA (and NHC official).

[skufful]

You obviously don't like the "nogaps" models, especially the one that tracks to west. Im ignorant here, so, what are "Nogaps," and why don't you like them?

I was merely pointing out that there weren't 3 models showing a little more westerly movement, it was variations of the same model, NOGAPS. The NOGAPS is the U.S. Navy's global spectral model. It has not done well in recent years. Errors have been about twice as great as some of the consensus models like CONU and GUNA (and NHC official).

Understand, I'm not trying to be critical, just tyring to learn. The models are a mystery to me.

If you Pros had your druthers, for an amatuer, what would be the best reading for the learning of tropical storms and the things that create and steer them?

"druthers" I don't even know if it's a word, but been using it all my life.

[wxman57]

Here's a final image of Helene. Final because I'm going to bed.

I indicated the center with the small "L".

[Evil Jeremy]

that seems a little to SW of the center i see!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to have turned westward or about 280 now.

[jaxfladude]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200608_climo.gif

That 1938 track better not be repeated!!
Turn Helene, you girl are NOT WELCOME A-N-Y-W-H-E-R-E near any islands or landmass as long as you are a tropical system or extra-tropical for that matter, 2006 Atlantic Hurricane is to be remembered for fish storms and "almost a 'cane" land-fallers.....

[curtadams]

You obviously don't like the "nogaps" models, especially the one that tracks to west. Im ignorant here, so, what are "Nogaps," and why don't you like them?

I was merely pointing out that there weren't 3 models showing a little more westerly movement, it was variations of the same model, NOGAPS. The NOGAPS is the U.S. Navy's global spectral model. It has not done well in recent years. Errors have been about twice as great as some of the consensus models like CONU and GUNA (and NHC official).

Well, the consensus models *should* beat their components. How does it compare to the other dynamic models?

[Thunder44]

Anybody seen the latest GFS? It brings it as far west 59W now at 144hrs before turning it north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_144m.gif

[Windtalker1]

I've said it for the past 2 days and I will say it again....they will trend more west as the weekend goes on. If you want to know what I'm saying here, see all my previous posts for the past 2 days.

[fci]

I've said it for the past 2 days and I will say it again....they will trend more west as the weekend goes on. If you want to know what I'm saying here, see all my previous posts for the past 2 days.

So Carnac the Magnificent; if you have been able to predict so well; who will win the UF-UT and LSU-Auburn games Saturday??

[terstorm1012]

I'd be shocked if Helene made it to 60west.

By the middle of next week where I am, we aren't expecting highs out of the low 60s (if we're lucky.) Monday will be the warmest day, then the front will come through, then another.

These (not an offical forecast, just my own opinion) will pick Ms Helene up and take her out into the open Atlantic.

[sma10]

I've said it for the past 2 days and I will say it again....they will trend more west as the weekend goes on. If you want to know what I'm saying here, see all my previous posts for the past 2 days.

What do you see as the endgame, though? True, you have been touting a further west solution, but do you see Helene making it as far as Bermuda? As far as the US East Coast?

Many feel (including myself) that it is irrelevant how far west it goes (whether it be 50W, 55W or 60W) because the endgame is obvious. How do you feel?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What ever is stalling Gordon=no weakness/trough to pull it out. Which means its sure as heck is not going to effect Helene. In intill it moves Gordon out then don't expect a turn. The last few hours Helene been going almost due westward...At least as far as I can tell.

If it pass 50 west south of 19...Then chances for this to get to 60 west south of 25 increases big time in my thinking.

[SouthFloridawx]

What ever is stalling Gordon=no weakness/trough to pull it out. Which means its sure as heck is not going to effect Helene. In intill it moves Gordon out then don't expect a turn. The last few hours Helene been going almost due westward...At least as far as I can tell.

If it pass 50 west south of 19...Then chances for this to get to 60 west south of 25 increases big time in my thinking.

What satelite are you watching?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Its doing a 275-280 degrees.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Its doing a 275-280 degrees.

Matt, there is a satelite eclipse. If you wish to view a loop you can do it here:

http://tinyurl.com/h8fyu

[SouthFloridawx]

Most of the Global Guidance agrees on recurvature before 60W and the outlier at or near 60W.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

[Thunder44]

I think the further west solutions tonight only increase the threat some to Bermuda, but not the US East Coast or the Carribean Islands.

[Meso]

Some models are showing it coming rather close to Bermuda,Hopefully they`ll send recon into her in a later stage