Moisture from Lane and possible TX Flood Event

[bob rulz]

Two points, the moisture from Lane is extremely unlikely to make it into UT. The October 17,1994 event was from the remnants of Hurricane Rosa which moved into TX near the Big Bend at very close to TD intensity. The trough the kicked Rosa into TX came through AZ the day prior and brought and early season fall of sleet along with some snow in the mountains.

Steve

I know...but still, I can hope, can't I? September of 1984 was our wettest month on record (over 7 inches) and much of it was largely contributed by Olivia. Also, I didn't know about Rosa in 1994. Do you know what the meteorological conditions for Olivia were? Was it just a major trought that came south and drew it northward? Also, do you know the last time a tropical system spread rains into Utah?

[Portastorm]

Southerngale ... local mets here believe the worst of it for us in the Austin area is going to be Sunday night through Monday night.

We will welcome the "rain magnet" into our area!!

One of our local mets here note the remanent low is going to go right over Austin/ San Antonio area. He thinks Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Corpus and the RGV could all get hamered with big time rains Sunday thru Tuesday.

Could very well be ... in their 2 am (PDT) discussion, NHC suggested that once Lane makes landfall into Mexico, it's possible that the storm becomes de-coupled with the upper and mid level centers moving northeast across Mexico into Texas and the low level center moving along the coastline.

Obviously this would be a bad scenario for someone in Texas probably south of Waco down to the Valley.

[KatDaddy]

Heavy rainfall event still on the way for TX. Large plume of moisture from H Lane moving into TX from the SW. Additional moisture from 14E.NONAME will also move NE into TX.

[Galvestongirl]

well, I hope the rain holds off for today and tomorrow. the better half is drag racing in baytown and its my daughters 21 birthday...they are planning an outside BBQ................................so go away rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Portastorm]

The Austin/San Antonio NWS office is now issuing Special Weather Statements on this potential flood event:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
420 AM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...

SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL COME TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS AIRMASS WILL COLLIDE WITH A
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR WILL BE
AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE
LANE LOCATED OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

[southerngale]

I really hope the areas that badly need rain get plenty of it, but not enough to flood. This could be a blessing for those areas, and let's pray that is what it is. I was looking at the U.S. Drought Monitor, and except for most of coastal Texas, West Texas into the Panhandle, the majority of Texas REALLY needs rain!! There's a large area in the extreme and exceptional areas.

[TexasStooge]

Here's the latest AFD from the NWS in Ft. Worth, TX:

DISCUSSION...
310 AM
..STORMY LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...
WHERE TO START?...THAT IS THE REAL QUESTION HERE...AS MAJOR
CHALLENGES ARE IN THE SHORT TERM ON SYSTEM/FRONTAL TIMING AND POPS.
CURRENTLY...BROAD WRN CONUS UPPER LOW TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO FALL
AND SPRING IS PRESENT. SWLY FLOW ALOFT NOW ENCOMPASSING ERN
ROCKIES/WRN HIGH PLAINS WITH CONVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. COLD FRONT NOW SEEN PULLING SWD DOWN LEE OF MT/WY FRONT
RANGE...WITH BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM ERN NM/W TX...ALL THE WAY
UP THROUGH WRN NE/SD/ND.

SOME HIGH LVL MSTR AND WEAK SUB-TROPICAL BRANCH DISTURBANCES TO
AFFECT SRN COUNTIES THRU TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE LANE SITS OFF THE
WRN MEXICAN COASTLINE. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF THIS AFTN THROUGH
TNGT...AS DISTURBANCES MOVING NE OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO CENTRAL
TX WILL LACK SFC FOCUS ALONG WITH SOME CAPPING EXPECTED IN SW FLOW
ALOFT. DIE RAISE POPS A TAD DOWN OVER SRN 1/3 OF CWA...BUT NOTHING
COMPARED TO WHAT THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. FELT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER FAR NW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT WERE WARRANTED...AS CONVECTION
IGNITES OFF W TX DRYLINE AND RACES NEWD IN BROAD WAA REGIME.

MAIN ACTIVITY WILL START ACROSS NRN CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN...AS PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS AREA AT MAX DAYTIME HEATING AND
WITH LITTLE CAP...AS TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BEST LARGE SCALE SHEAR WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AS UPPER
LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT OVER THE DAKOTAS. STILL...FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BY SUN NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
SQUALL LINE OR LINEAR MCS MOVE NW-SE ACROSS N TX AND THEN LINGER
OVER SE COUNTIES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SYSTEM SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THUS...CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN REGARDS TO
FCST.

[Yankeegirl]

I really hope that this time the flooding rains event and all isnt a bust like it was last weekend!!! I am getting sick of looking fwd to rain and storms and nothing ever becomes of it!!

BTW, its sunny here and a nice humid 97.9 out!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tomorrow and Monday should be some of the most active weather days we will have had in awhile! They will have everything a nice early Fall weather system should. We can expect:

-A threat of heavy, flooding rains.
-A threat of Svr. weather.
-Breezy winds.
-A decent post-frontal cooldown (about 5-10 degrees off the highs, and 10-15 degrees off the lows).

[Yankeegirl]

I hope your right EWG!!

[Yankeegirl]

What I have noticed though, is that the NWS has backed down on the chance of rain for tomorrow and monday... Tomorrow used to have a 60% chance of rain and now its only down to a 40%.... I am starting to wonder if we are going to see anything outta this after all...

[Ptarmigan]

Going to have to keep an eye on moisture from Lane in the Pacific and the front that's going to impact us in Texas on Sunday-Monday-Tuesday.

What worries me is that JB tonight in his column referenced October 17, 1994. You folks in SE Texas ought to remember that one!!

Austin/San Antonio NWS is already mentioning possibility of this event in their forecast discussions.

Usually Pacific Hurricanes that affect Texas cause heavy rain and even flooding. I remember that happened in 1994 with Rosa and 1998 with Lester and Madeline. We should keep an eye on Lane. It will be rainy mostly on Sunday to Tuesday. I expect 2 to 4 inches and possibly up to 6 inches.

[Ptarmigan]

I remember Oct 1994 well. It was one of top 3 flood events for SE TX in recent history.

TS Allison
TS Claudette
Oct 1994

Here is this mornings Forecast Disc from Houston-Galveston

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
507 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY WITH 70 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
AND MID 60S IN HOUSTON COUNTY...PW 1.7" COAST TO 1.3" NORTH. THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIMITED BY THE PRIMARILY ESE-E FLOW IN THE LOWER
6KFT PER VWP. LEE CYCLOGENESIS...AS THE PRESSURES FALL IN
WY/CO/NE/SD TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER
ID/UT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SETX SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE SE AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WARM AND MOIST AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS WEAK CONVERGENCE TRAVERSES THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND INTO SETX THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING TODAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
90-91 TO FUEL A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA...PROBABLY BETTER CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS THE POTENT NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM
LIFTS ENE AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF DEEPENS AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM LANE GETS CARRIED
NORTH ACROSS MEXICO TURNING EAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.

THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO
1.8 TO 2.2" AND WITH A HIGH LAYER RH THROW IN THE DAYTIME HEATING
(THOUGH HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER) WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
OFF AND ON DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THOUGH PRIMARILY
PACIFIC IN ORIGIN IT SHOULD MOVE INTO SETX MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY...ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND WE HAVE TRENDED ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. SUSPECT THAT WITH IT BEING PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THAN GFS PROGS
INDICATE. BUT WHETHER IT IS SLOWER OR NOT SETX SHOULD BE IN FOR A
WET AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW...MODERATE DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY AT AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. THOUGH IT IS STILL WAY
OUT THERE...MAY BE LOOKING AT A FLOOD WATCH SETUP. MAY ALSO HAVE A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ONLY A LITTLE
FROM CURRENT PROGS. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FROPA TUESDAY AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE THURSDAY AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAINFALL FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FRIDAY LOOKS MORE
SHEARED AND MAY BE SLOWER TO COME OUT AND COULD SPELL ANOTHER BOUT
OF PRECIP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

I remember the October 1994 flood. It rained a lot that time. I measured 13 inches of rain that 4 days, including more than 6 inches on October 18th. Some areas got up to 30 inches of rain, including 26 inches in one day!

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I have noticed though, is that the NWS has backed down on the chance of rain for tomorrow and monday... Tomorrow used to have a 60% chance of rain and now its only down to a 40%.... I am starting to wonder if we are going to see anything outta this after all...

I saw that too. Hopefully they will raise the chances again tomorrow. Even if this is a bust though...we still have the system next weekend to keep an eye on. Hopefully that one would be more eventful.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Look at the HUGE plume of moisture heading toward TX from Mexico right now:



makes me wonder if tomorrow will be wetter than forecast?

[Yankeegirl]

Oh, that does look nice!! Maybe!!!

[gboudx]

Flash Flood Watch for all of DFW today. NWS is forecasting most areas to get around 2" with some areas getting around 5". We had a nice t-storm with some pouring rain this morning. Nothing threatening now, but apparently the "big show" will start this afternoon.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, am waiting down here in Austin, too, for the "event." Local NWS is suggesting anywhere from 2-6 inches of rain before it's all over for us.

Right now no rain but a very muggy, cloudy Sunday morning in the capital of Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like this will be an interesting 24 hrs. in Houston. NWS has raised pops for tonight to 90% and they said heavy rain and possible svr. weather is likely...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 AM CDT SUN SEP 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE WORKS. BIG TIME MOISTURE HEADED
THIS WAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WITH PW OF 2.0 TO 2.2"
AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC STORM
LANE TO RIDE OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO S AND SETX. PW
VALUES MAY RISE INTO THE 2.4" RANGE (VERY NEARLY SATURATED 1000-
500MB) TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BENEATH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE RICH TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THIS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD HAMPER
THE RISE OF THE TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES...MISSED THEM BY 2-5 DEGREES...ARGGG. GFS AND ETA
BOTH PAINTING A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE DIFFERENCES LIE PRIMARILY IN THE
TIMING. THE NAM/WRF NOW A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING IN THE HEAVY
RAINS THAN THE GFS WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT ALSO HAS A MORE DEFINED PREFRONTAL TROUGH. AM TRYING
TO BLEND THE TWO WITH THE LARGE SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE
REGION (WESTERN CWA) THIS EVENING AND INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM MONDAY...AND OUT OF THE GALVESTON BAY
AREA AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS
IS OVER. MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT OR THE
EVENING SHIFT MAKE THE CALL AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HOPEFULLY COMES
MORE INTO LINE. STILL SOME VERY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND DONT
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IT IN THE GRIDS YET...POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR MICROBURST THREAT. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THEN
DRY AIR PUSHES DOWN INTO THE REGION AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST
MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND CLEAR SKIES.
(POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE WET GROUND.) QUICK TURNAROUND
ON RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING THURSDAY AND ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN
FRIDAY THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE SURFACE FOCUS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.

[TexasStooge]

Flash Flood Watch for all of DFW today. NWS is forecasting most areas to get around 2" with some areas getting around 5". We had a nice t-storm with some pouring rain this morning. Nothing threatening now, but apparently the "big show" will start this afternoon.

Yep, you're right about that. More than likely I'll be going home from Church when it happens.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...BELL...BOSQUE...COLLIN...COMANCHE...COOKE...
CORYELL...DALLAS...DENTON...EASTLAND...ELLIS...ERATH...
FANNIN...GRAYSON...HAMILTON...HILL...HOOD...HUNT...JACK...
JOHNSON...LAMPASAS...MCLENNAN...MILLS...MONTAGUE...PALO
PINTO...PARKER...ROCKWALL...SOMERVELL...STEPHENS...TARRANT...
WISE AND YOUNG IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...DELTA...HOPKINS AND LAMAR.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES.

* THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAPID...EXCESS RUN-OFF
AND FLASH FLOODING.

Matter in fact, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Southeastern North Texas until Monday Morning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...FALLS...FREESTONE...
KAUFMAN...LIMESTONE AND NAVARRO IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
ANDERSON...HENDERSON...LEON...RAINS AND VAN ZANDT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...MILAM AND ROBERTSON.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING