CPC: El Niño conditions have developed
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HURRICANELONNY
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Heck I remember the El Nino in I guess 98. The IR loop looked like a hurricane was coming from the South. I called it the ground hog day storm because it happen on ground hog day. I lived in North Miami and my new Honda Shadow blew over in the wind which I guess was over 60mph. I had it covered and it acted as a parachute and lifted the bike. My new handle bars were bent. A strong El Nino can cause some damage around the planet.
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TampaSteve
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Patrick99 wrote:Bah. Well, at least we'll get a wet, warm winter out of it....lot of impulses riding along the subtropical jet. Should be a welcome change from the typical horribly boring nothing-but-blue-sky-for-months FL winter weather.
Exactly...winter in Florida is generally the same every single freaking day...sunny, dry, 70s...we actually look forward to a front coming down far enough to mix things up...at least if it rains more, my lawn won't turn brown and I won't have to run my sprinklers all the time. El Niño saves me $$$!
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HURRICANELONNY
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sfwx
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Updated: 05:49 PM EDT
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Warm Water in Pacific May Blunt Hurricane Season
Meteorologists Say Return of 'El Nino' Means Warmer, Wetter Winter
By CLAYTON SANDELL, ABCNews.com
(Sept. 14) - Forecasters say a new El Nino -- a patch of unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that develops every few years -- will mean warmer temperatures and stormier weather for the United States this winter.
In past years, El Ninos have been blamed for rearranging world weather patterns. Typically, they bring increased storms to the West Coast, and wet weather to the Southeast.
The good news is that El Nino may help explain why the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet.
Last year's season set a record of 27 named tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, there have been only eight.
"El Nino alters the atmospheric circulation pattern," said Vernon Kousky, an El Nino expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "There is an increase of winds that shear off the tops of thunderstorms before they have a chance to spin up and become a tropical storm. Wind shear is a bad thing for hurricanes."
Kousky doesn't want anyone to get complacent.
"We don't want people to let their guard down," he said. "There's still a lot of hurricane season left to go, and you can still have substantial hurricane activity."
This year's El Nino began in late August or early September, later than the usual spring start.
That means the effects will be more moderate than the strong El Nino season of 1997-1998, for example.
Kousky says this El Nino event will likely hang around until early spring.
When an El Nino forms in the Pacific, it generally means drier conditions for places like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, researchers say.
As winter approaches, El Nino will begin to change the jet stream over the Northern Hemisphere and affect the temperature and weather patterns over the United States.
The northern United States, much of the West, Great Lakes, and parts of New England will experience warmer than normal temperatures.
"And we'd expect stormier, wetter conditions for much of the Southwest, southern Texas, Florida and the Southeast," Kousky said.
Some scientific studies have suggested that El Nino events could become much more common in the future if the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere continues to increase.
A team of scientists published a study Monday that linked warming ocean temperatures to human-caused greenhouse gas pollution, for example.
Not all scientists agree that global warming will affect El Nino conditions, but Kousky says researchers are studying the issue.
"El Nino is a natural phenomenon that transports heat out of the Tropics and gives it away so we maintain some kind of climatic equilibrium," Kousky said.
"If we alter the normal temperature distribution due to global warming, the whole globe will warm up. Maybe the new climate state will not require an El Nino. Another possibility is that we could go into a perpetual El Nino."
El Nino means little boy in Spanish and refers to the birth of Jesus, because the effects of the weather pattern usually reach a peak around Christmas.
IM This E-mail This
Warm Water in Pacific May Blunt Hurricane Season
Meteorologists Say Return of 'El Nino' Means Warmer, Wetter Winter
By CLAYTON SANDELL, ABCNews.com
(Sept. 14) - Forecasters say a new El Nino -- a patch of unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that develops every few years -- will mean warmer temperatures and stormier weather for the United States this winter.
In past years, El Ninos have been blamed for rearranging world weather patterns. Typically, they bring increased storms to the West Coast, and wet weather to the Southeast.
The good news is that El Nino may help explain why the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet.
Last year's season set a record of 27 named tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, there have been only eight.
"El Nino alters the atmospheric circulation pattern," said Vernon Kousky, an El Nino expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "There is an increase of winds that shear off the tops of thunderstorms before they have a chance to spin up and become a tropical storm. Wind shear is a bad thing for hurricanes."
Kousky doesn't want anyone to get complacent.
"We don't want people to let their guard down," he said. "There's still a lot of hurricane season left to go, and you can still have substantial hurricane activity."
This year's El Nino began in late August or early September, later than the usual spring start.
That means the effects will be more moderate than the strong El Nino season of 1997-1998, for example.
Kousky says this El Nino event will likely hang around until early spring.
When an El Nino forms in the Pacific, it generally means drier conditions for places like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, researchers say.
As winter approaches, El Nino will begin to change the jet stream over the Northern Hemisphere and affect the temperature and weather patterns over the United States.
The northern United States, much of the West, Great Lakes, and parts of New England will experience warmer than normal temperatures.
"And we'd expect stormier, wetter conditions for much of the Southwest, southern Texas, Florida and the Southeast," Kousky said.
Some scientific studies have suggested that El Nino events could become much more common in the future if the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere continues to increase.
A team of scientists published a study Monday that linked warming ocean temperatures to human-caused greenhouse gas pollution, for example.
Not all scientists agree that global warming will affect El Nino conditions, but Kousky says researchers are studying the issue.
"El Nino is a natural phenomenon that transports heat out of the Tropics and gives it away so we maintain some kind of climatic equilibrium," Kousky said.
"If we alter the normal temperature distribution due to global warming, the whole globe will warm up. Maybe the new climate state will not require an El Nino. Another possibility is that we could go into a perpetual El Nino."
El Nino means little boy in Spanish and refers to the birth of Jesus, because the effects of the weather pattern usually reach a peak around Christmas.
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AussieMark
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its not a el nino
on their own web site it says
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service, declares the onset of an El Niño episode when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5°C in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5°N-5°S and 170°W-120°W].
This Criteria has not been met yet
using this they can not realistically call a EL Nino till at least Novemer or December
on their own web site it says
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service, declares the onset of an El Niño episode when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5°C in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5°N-5°S and 170°W-120°W].
This Criteria has not been met yet
using this they can not realistically call a EL Nino till at least Novemer or December
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Jim Hughes
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AussieMark wrote:its not a el nino
on their own web site it says
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service, declares the onset of an El Niño episode when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5°C in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5°N-5°S and 170°W-120°W].
This Criteria has not been met yet
using this they can not realistically call a EL Nino till at least Novemer or December
Your right about "their" rules and that is what is important here. But you already know my feelings about whether we have an El Nino or not. So why would NOAA do this?
Well this helps out with their bad pre season hurricane outlook. Most news outlets picked up this story and they are already talking about how an El Nino inhibits ATL development. Hence an excuse for the mishap.
The public forgives their outlook and they actually look like good forecasters since they have nailed this El nino before some others. Which we all know is just nonsense.
The politics here are quite disturbing and the people within the community should have the guts to stand up and talk about this.
The fox is watching the hen house here and the rank and file are just sitting back and staying quiet. So they are just as guilty.
I see that you and PK are the only ones who are mainly questioning this around here and you two are from overseas. This shows me something.
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AussieMark
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Jim Hughes wrote:AussieMark wrote:its not a el nino
on their own web site it says
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service, declares the onset of an El Niño episode when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5°C in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5°N-5°S and 170°W-120°W].
This Criteria has not been met yet
using this they can not realistically call a EL Nino till at least Novemer or December
Your right about "their" rules and that is what is important here. But you already know my feelings about whether we have an El Nino or not. So why would NOAA do this?
Well this helps out with their bad pre season hurricane outlook. Most news outlets picked up this story and they are already talking about how an El Nino inhibits ATL development. Hence an excuse for the mishap.
The public forgives their outlook and they actually look like good forecasters since they have nailed this El nino before some others. Which we all know is just nonsense.
The politics here are quite disturbing and the people within the community should have the guts to stand up and talk about this.
The fox is watching the hen house here and the rank and file are just sitting back and staying quiet. So they are just as guilty.
I see that you and PK are the only ones who are mainly questioning this around here and you two are from overseas. This shows me something.
Yeah I was not doubting we are heading for one
but we are not at the state of a decalred El Nino right now
I feel El Nino has been used as a scapegoat since everyone was forcasting a hyperactive season and this year has been anything but. If they waited till the 3 months of 0.5°C index that would be after Hurricane Season is over so would lack the impact in the media Vs doing it in September (Peak Hurricane season time).
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AussieMark
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Jim Hughes
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P.K. wrote:Jim Hughes wrote:I see that you and PK are the only ones who are mainly questioning this around here and you two are from overseas. This shows me something.
It is certainly not just us. I gathered from Talkin' Tropics the other night that lots of people in USA are questioning it as well.
Sorry but I missed the show and I do not know how many guests were on. I am also trying to figure out how a radio show can tell you this.
I know a few MET's over at Easternuswx have spoken up about this but there were plenty more who stayed silent. Like around here. And their reaction over there or even here is not important anyway.
You guys do not converse with the public as a whole. This is where it needs to be brought up since the EL Nino release was made to the public. And just about every news outlet carried it.
All local OCM's or even TWC etc... should be questioning the timing of this release. Even science writers at newspapers. You can not have an organization like NOAA playing a political game here. This does nothing for their integrity and I find it hard to fathom how anyone can fairly argue about this.
You do not need to know anything about weather or even what causes the El Nino to form. The stipulations as to whether an EL Nino is officially present (Mind you their terms not mine) is written in plain english. All you have to know how to read is a monthly SST anomaly chart.
They are changing the rules of the game as they go along. Why wouldn't they do this again to save face ? I am sorry but this has to make some people wonder what they would do in reference to GW to save face because of all their prior warnings.
The timing of this release is just not good for them. They should have taken the bad ATL pre season forecast on the chin just like any long term forecaster would. They could have then came out at the end of the year and said that we have an EL Nino present and we just miscalculated the timing of it's formation because of historical climatology.
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Jim Hughes
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boca wrote:The criteria for EL NIno is 4 months of .05C correct and its only been 3 months of .05C so they are premature in calling this.
Sorry Boca but you are way off here. There have not been three months at + .5
BTW this should be a wake up call to the science community as a whole. I have always fought against using the SST data alone. The MEI or the 90 day SOI average is a much better ENSO indicator.
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