Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

6z GFS taking it towards Bermuda!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It actually takes it south and west before the trough takes up to Nova Scotia!

It's an outlier! Throw it out! Throw it out! Throw it out!

[jusforsean]

I've said it for the past 2 days and I will say it again....they will trend more west as the weekend goes on. If you want to know what I'm saying here, see all my previous posts for the past 2 days.

I am thinking that as well but how far west is the question? By the way the link to your posts isnt there

[WeatherTracker]

the gfs brings it closer to the east coast than its previous model runs....

[Meso]

In fact the new GFS run shows the system totally missing the trough and the high building back...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

[Weatherfreak14]

just now I hope that front doesent stall over the us. I hope it moves out to see as fast as possible.

[BOPPA]

In fact the new GFS run shows the system totally missing the trough and the high building back...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

And what does this mean - as far as where she goes and what she does?

[Meso]

Well,it means a more westerly track as ther is nothing lifting it out to sea,it depends on how strong the ridge will be though. But yet again,this is just one model...One has to look at majority,but it still has been tending more west and more west,although chances are another trough will come before it can reach the east coast... See if the other models pick up on what the gfs is seeing though

[storms in NC]

JIMHO looking at the wvloop just now you can see more a west track at this time. So I would say it is going WNW cause it should jog north as it goes west. I didn't worrie about the last two storms but this one The models are split and that sends me a qustion to if they do have a hold on this. I don't think they really do. As far as land hit the Island should keep a good eye on this one. As far as the east coast to far out to say.Don't think so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

zoom in and you can see.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from one GFS run. Every single tropical model still turns Helene northward east of 60W -- generally along 57-58W. That's well to the east of Bermuda.

[Derek Ortt]

for those wanting this to hit the EC, root for a very strong trough, one that is negatively tilted

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 161258
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 1200 060917 0000 060917 1200 060918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 45.2W 19.2N 46.9W 19.9N 48.3W 20.6N 49.6W
BAMM 18.5N 45.2W 19.4N 47.1W 20.2N 48.8W 20.9N 50.1W
A98E 18.5N 45.2W 19.7N 47.2W 20.9N 49.1W 22.2N 50.9W
LBAR 18.5N 45.2W 19.7N 46.7W 20.4N 48.1W 21.2N 49.4W
SHIP 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 1200 060919 1200 060920 1200 060921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 50.8W 21.6N 53.6W 22.1N 56.9W 24.3N 59.5W
BAMM 21.4N 51.6W 21.0N 54.4W 21.1N 57.3W 23.0N 59.2W
A98E 23.0N 52.9W 24.9N 57.2W 27.2N 61.2W 32.0N 62.6W
LBAR 21.8N 51.0W 22.3N 54.7W 22.3N 59.6W 23.1N 62.1W
SHIP 77KTS 78KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 77KTS 78KTS 75KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 45.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

[WeatherTracker]

WHXX01 KWBC 161258
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 1200 060917 0000 060917 1200 060918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 45.2W 19.2N 46.9W 19.9N 48.3W 20.6N 49.6W
BAMM 18.5N 45.2W 19.4N 47.1W 20.2N 48.8W 20.9N 50.1W
A98E 18.5N 45.2W 19.7N 47.2W 20.9N 49.1W 22.2N 50.9W
LBAR 18.5N 45.2W 19.7N 46.7W 20.4N 48.1W 21.2N 49.4W
SHIP 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 1200 060919 1200 060920 1200 060921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 50.8W 21.6N 53.6W 22.1N 56.9W 24.3N 59.5W
BAMM 21.4N 51.6W 21.0N 54.4W 21.1N 57.3W 23.0N 59.2W
A98E 23.0N 52.9W 24.9N 57.2W 27.2N 61.2W 32.0N 62.6W
LBAR 21.8N 51.0W 22.3N 54.7W 22.3N 59.6W 23.1N 62.1W
SHIP 77KTS 78KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 77KTS 78KTS 75KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 45.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

65kts= 75mph....hurricane at 11?

[canetracker]

From the below WV you can kind of see the trof over the western us which is the one that is supposed to pick up Helene. Further, Gordon is stalled and Helene is consistently moving forward.
What is it that is stalling Gordon??? I read the NHC discussions and they do not say why.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[storms in NC]

for those wanting this to hit the EC, root for a very strong trough, one that is negatively tilted

I have missed some post here. I havn't read 1 post that any one wanted a east coast hit. I have read about the Islands and Bermuda. I think everyone knows not the east coast. But I have to say these days you never know. But as of right now NO EC HIT. Sorry If I did miss reading one.

[Meso]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_08.gif

Hrm... Not drawing any conclusion from this,just showing the facts.. New model runs at 12z ... lots have shifted west,all the bams and the lbar,not very reliable.. just saying what they did. Just to clear up that I`m not going on about any EC threat.

[Windtalker1]

I'll be honest....everyone is thinking it any ways....I wouldn't mind see a storm coming to get my blood pumping, the long hours tracking on S2K, the discussions ect....I don't want the destruction but gee wiz....give us a little east coast threat and turn at the last minute will you Helene.... (everyone can blast me now)

[HURAKAN]

FINALLY!!! THE FOURTH OF THE SEASON IS HERE!!! HELENE, YOU ARE TAKING A HELL OF TIME!!!

[wzrgirl1]

for those wanting this to hit the EC, root for a very strong trough, one that is negatively tilted

explain this....i thought an strong east coast trough would steer this away not force it west.....

[Meso]

I believe that is why he said negatively tilted as it would have the opposite effect

[wzrgirl1]

I believe that is why he said negatively tilted as it would have the opposite effect

I figured as much but scientifically why would this occur?