Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

it culd also be a SAL entrainment along with moderate shear

[Derek Ortt]

of interest about the radical GFS shift is that this was after yesterday's G-IV flight into the storm

[DESTRUCTION5]

of interest about the radical GFS shift is that this was after yesterday's G-IV flight into the storm

I smell a intresting left shift in your next update Derek..

[trugunz]

of interest about the radical GFS shift is that this was after yesterday's G-IV flight into the storm

There was a G-IV flight, also whats a G-IV flight?

[rockyman]

GFS is now out to 138 hours...and the trough seems to lift out without booting Helene and with a high building back in...

[WeatherTracker]

GFS is now out to 138 hours...and the trough seems to lift out without booting Helene and with a high building back in...

doesnt that mean a more west track?

[WeatherTracker]

[Thunder44]

GFS is now out to 138 hours...and the trough seems to lift out without booting Helene and with a high building back in...

doesnt that mean a more west track?

Watch for the trough behind that one to digg in over the east coast.

[WeatherTracker]

helene is trying to form an eye based on the visible sat.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like the traditional model split. The south camp and the north camp. Still more than likely a fish but has already gone more west than when initialized (remember most models had it heading out to sea before 50w). There are now several scenarios in which it would come more west, most depending on forward speed. Regardless, the more west Helene comes the more waves we will get. Between the rains of Ernie and the waves from Flo and Gordo we are soaked and have received continual erosion. Most don't realize the far reaching effect that tropical systems have.

On a lighter note. Derek, will have a hard time this afternoon. A niece at UM and I'm Catholic, a dilemma

[rockyman]

just the fact that GFS is showing the system crossing 60W is significant (since earlier runs had the system recurving around 50W).

[Aquawind]

of interest about the radical GFS shift is that this was after yesterday's G-IV flight into the storm

There was a G-IV flight, also whats a G-IV flight?

It's a recon flight that samples the steering layers above 10,000 feet. They are not flown by your typical huuricane hunter recon plane that gets vortex messages.


Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV)

http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/aircraft.htm


http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/aircraft.htm

[Thunder44]

The ridge expands back further west than 6z run. Also the storm in the Great Lakes stronger.

[SouthFloridawx]

of interest about the radical GFS shift is that this was after yesterday's G-IV flight into the storm

Is it handling the trough any differenct today than yesterday? I was looking at this trough coming from the west and it appeared to be zonal flow rather than digging flow. What do you think derek? I'm waiting for this loop to load.

[DESTRUCTION5]

of interest about the radical GFS shift is that this was after yesterday's G-IV flight into the storm

Is it handling the trough any differenct today than yesterday? I was looking at this trough coming from the west and it appeared to be zonal flow rather than digging flow. What do you think derek? I'm waiting for this loop to load.

162 hrs stills show no N turn...

[rockyman]

GFS out to 162...shows a second westward turn at end of run (still awaiting more frames)...system is around 63W east of central FLA

[Bgator]

Where can i get a loop of the GFS, i have fram by frame but not loop...! Please link me up!

[WeatherTracker]

Where can i get a loop of the GFS, i have fram by frame but not loop...! Please link me up!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_p06_m_loop.shtml

[sma10]

12Z GFS......let the arguing begin....

[Scorpion]

May be a threat to Bermuda now.