Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Hurricaneman
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#221 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:46 am

The gfs just gives me the willies at the moment, but its an outlier at the moment
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Derek Ortt

#222 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:47 am

read me 1500 UTC discussion again

I said that it is the GFS that forecasts this motion; thus, it will be ignored
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#223 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:47 am

The GFS is one of the more accurate models, so we cannot toss this model out the window...
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#224 Postby Bgator » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:48 am

When will the G-IV Mission data be inputted in the models? What model set??!
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#225 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:49 am

GFS has it just a little too close to comfort for the East Coast. This is a HUGE shift.
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#226 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:50 am

Latest GFS run has it turning north at around 67 west
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Derek Ortt

#227 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:51 am

also, I have NEVER called for a complete recuve in a forecast and chances are probably less than 50% that Helene will not affect land.

Canada may be in the way again
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#228 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:51 am

Merges Helene with Front and Blasts Maine...That Im going to Ignore Derek...Any GFS crap after 120 Hrs looks preposterous...
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#229 Postby Bgator » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:52 am

When will the G-IV data be put into the models? TOdays flight?
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#230 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:52 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Merges Helene with Front and Blasts Maine...That Im going to Ignore Derek...Any GFS crap after 120 Hrs looks preposterous...


The key thing here is the trend.
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#231 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:52 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Merges Helene with Front and Blasts Maine...That Im going to Ignore Derek...Any GFS crap after 120 Hrs looks preposterous...
one of the more accurate models but any model after 100 hours is not valuable....
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#232 Postby jusforsean » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:53 am

rockyman wrote:just the fact that GFS is showing the system crossing 60W is significant (since earlier runs had the system recurving around 50W).


isnt 60w and 20n some kind of magic number in meterology land, like if it doesnt do what it has to do prior to that point things change?? Also will this pass thru the H box or is is not even close to that at all? I wasnt able to find the lat and lon of the H box. Thanks
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Derek Ortt

#233 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:55 am

there was a G-IV flight yesterday and another one today. I do not believe that any more are scheduled after today
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#234 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:57 am

Derek, what do you think about the latest GFS? it has helene heading north west of bermuda...
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#235 Postby jusforsean » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:57 am

when will the normal recon go out to her???
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#236 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:58 am

jusforsean wrote:when will the normal recon go out to her???


There are none scheduled, and unless it threatens some land, there won't be.
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#237 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:58 am

Jus, I think it's 20/50 and 25/60 or something like that.
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#238 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:58 am

jusforsean wrote:when will the normal recon go out to her???
i think any system has to be west of 55 for a recon to go out....
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Derek Ortt

#239 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:02 pm

I NEVER base a forecast off of the GFS. Too many things that have not made dynamical sense the last few years with that model (even when it had the track of Ernesto correct, it was right for completely the wrong reason)
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#240 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I NEVER base a forecast off of the GFS. Too many things that have not made dynamical sense the last few years with that model (even when it had the track of Ernesto correct, it was right for completely the wrong reason)
do you think the GFDL has the right idea?
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