T Storm Helene Advisories=Last Advisory Written by NHC

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006

...HELENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST OR ABOUT 970
MILES...1560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...38.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 38.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.3N 40.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 43.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 45.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 46.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 49.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 38.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13...BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THE 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESS SPREAD
NOW THAN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS
HAVING SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE UKMET 12Z SOLUTION.
THE NEW 18Z UKMET RUN IS ALSO MUCH SLOWER NOW AND VERY SIMILAR TO
THE 18Z NOGAPS MODEL RUN. THE KEY PLAYER DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE
IS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CUTOFF INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
MODELS ARE NOW WEAKENING THE LOW AND LIFTING IT OUT SOONER THAN THE
GFS...ECMWF... GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS. GIVEN THAT THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BE FAST ZONAL FLOW...LESS
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE THE EFFECT OF ANY NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE WAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY 96 AND 120 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA AND
CONU MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS.

HELENE HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN A JUST FEW HOURS AT A TIME DUE TO A LARGE
SLUG OF DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE CYCLONE. SINCE THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE ANY
TIME SOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE FIRST 72 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT... A
SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS PER THE GFDL
AND FSU MODELS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE HELENE WILL BE MOVING
OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS AND ALSO BE UNDERNEATH A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.5N 38.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.3N 40.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 43.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 45.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 46.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.3N 49.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.9W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 12

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 15, 2006



Helene does not look too much different than it did six hours
ago...except for the deep convection bubbling in slightly different
portions of the circulation. Perhaps some convection has recently
increased a little near the low-level center...but even that seems
to be on the decrease again. The advisory intensity remains 40 kt
based on a blend of the 06z Dvorak estimates. Helene appears to be
ingesting some dry air...and it might take a while for inner core
convection to become persistent. Therefore...the official
intensity forecast is slightly below all of the available guidance
and is also a slight downward adjustment from the previous
advisory. Helene is still forecast to become a hurricane in a
couple of days...just not quite as strong as the SHIPS and GFDL are
suggesting.
Helene continues west-northwestward at about 13 kt along a heading
between 285 and 290 degrees...with steering provided by the
subtropical ridge to its north. The dynamical models are in
reasonable agreement on a west-northwestward to northwestward
motion during the next 48 to 72 hours. After that the models
diverge fairly significantly...bounded by the NOGAPS on the left
and turning the cyclone westward...and the GFDL on the right and
racing Helene northward. The disagreement seems to Stem from how
each model handles a mid- to upper-level trough currently over the
eastern United States that will be moving slowly eastward during
the next several days. If the NOGAPS is correct...enough ridging
will remain between that trough and Helene to allow the tropical
cyclone to turn westward. The GFDL and GFS...however...forecast
Helene to gain enough latitude by rounding the ridge such that the
approaching trough will pick up Helene. I am not yet confident the
ridge to the north of Helene will break down that fast...so the new
official track forecast lies on the left side of the model guidance
envelope...and it is essentially identical to the previous
advisory.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/0900z 15.0n 40.3w 40 kt
12hr VT 15/1800z 15.9n 42.1w 45 kt
24hr VT 16/0600z 17.0n 44.2w 50 kt
36hr VT 16/1800z 18.0n 46.0w 55 kt
48hr VT 17/0600z 19.0n 47.4w 65 kt
72hr VT 18/0600z 21.0n 50.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 19/0600z 23.0n 52.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 20/0600z 24.5n 54.5w 85 kt

$$
forecaster Knabb

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006

...HELENE A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1355
MILES...2180 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.8 N...41.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 41.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

GOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE
CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS
RAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH
AND TO THE WEST. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT
INTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE
WELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK
FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH...
UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN
WATER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.8N 41.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

625
WTNT33 KNHC 152040
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006

...HELENE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1255
MILES...2020 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N...42.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


632
WTNT23 KNHC 152040
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 42.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 42.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 44.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.6N 46.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 26.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 42.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

630
WTNT43 KNHC 152040
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

HELENE IS DEFINITELY STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME AND IS VERY NEAR
HURRICANE STATUS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS MOST IMPRESSIVE TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE WILL
CONTINUE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER
WATERS...ACCORDING TO BUOY DATA NEARBY. THERE ARE NO OTHER APPARENT
CONDITIONS THAT COULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES...BACK AT
THE EARLIER SPEED OF 13 KNOTS...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIKELY ERODE THE RIDGE.
THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE HELENE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS THE
GENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT MODELS VARY
IN HOW FAR WEST THEY BRING HELENE DEPENDING ON EACH MODEL'S
FORECAST REPRESENTATION OF THE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...NO MODEL
BRINGS HELENE PAST 60W LONGITUDE IN FIVE DAYS IN THE LATEST MORNING
RUN...AND IN FACT...MOST OF THEM TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.7N 42.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.7N 44.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.6N 46.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 47.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 49.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 51.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 160241
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 43.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 46.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.8N 48.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 54.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

959
WTNT33 KNHC 160245
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006

...HELENE STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1195 MILES...1925 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.2 N...43.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

::Taps Fingers waiting for discussion::

[SouthFloridawx]

456
WTNT43 KNHC 160300
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. HELENE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
BASED ON A PLETHORA OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE INITIAL
POSITION...HOWEVER...IS SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES
WHICH APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH...BUT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS
FOLLOWED GIVEN THAT HELENE STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH IS STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
FORECAST TRACKS AND REASONINGS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
GFDL TAKING HELENE MORE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL TAKES
THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE SPREAD OUT
EVENLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS AGREE
THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF HELENE BY 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH USUALLY
FAVORS STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IS STILL BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS NOTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING VERTICALLY SHEAR AND INCREASING SSTS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND HELENE COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 120H.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 43.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.9N 46.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 19.8N 48.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.7N 49.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.8W 100 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 54.6W 100 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Meso]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160853
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...HELENE NOT QUITE YET A HURRICANE...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1210
MILES...1945 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N...44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Meso]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 160857
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES REVEALS THAT HELENE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...BUT WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES NOT
PERSIST IN THE SAME QUADRANT FOR VERY LONG. THE MOST RECENT IMAGE
FROM AMSR-E AT 0420 UTC INDICATED THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS PRESENT
ONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND GOES IMAGERY SINCE THEN
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0
USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY OF
65 KT...THE PERCOLATING BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION LEADS ME TO
LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR NOW. NEVERTHELESS...THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR HELENE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE SHIPS LEVELS OFF NEAR 80 KT...
BUT THE GFDL ANTICIPATES HELENE LATER APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE TWO
MODELS EARLY ON...THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DUE TO THE PULSATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN...I WOULD NOT HAVE A VERY
GOOD IDEA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 300/13. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THAT WEAKNESS IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GORDON AND
SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT-WAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
TURN HELENE NORTHWARD...BUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES PROBABLY WILL...WHEN IT GETS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN
HELENE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH ON DAY 5...AND THAT
TURN IS NOW INTRODUCED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS
OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.9N 44.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 18.8N 46.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.7N 47.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.6N 49.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.4N 50.4W 85 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 53.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.0N 56.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 28.0N 58.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[WeatherTracker]

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 17

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 16, 2006



geostationary satellite imagery indicates increasing organization of
Helene with robust banding convection on the north and west
quadrants...and a ragged eye attempting to form as seen in the
visible imagery. Moreover...SSMI and AMSU passes show a nearly
complete eyewall. Based upon consensus of Dvorak estimates...the
system is upgraded to a 65 kt hurricane. While a Saharan air-layer
is seen to the north and west of Helene in CIMSS imagery...total
precipitable water analyses from CIRA suggest that the dry air
remains at least a couple hundred miles from the center of the
system. Continued slow intensification is suggested over the next
three days due to 27.5 c SSTs...light/moderate vertical shear...and
a moist environment. At days 4 and 5...the SSTs warm up...but
shear increases may mitigate further intensification. A plateauing
of the intensity is called for around 72 hrs with slight weakening
thereafter. The intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS...FSU
super-ensemble...and GFDL models...which is slightly weaker than
previously predicted at the long-leads.
Current motion estimate is 305/12. Helene is on the southwest side
of a deep-layer ridge and is headed toward a break in the ridge...
which is partially being produced by Hurricane Gordon. All
reliable guidance is in close agreement with a continued movement
along this heading through 72 hr. At days 4 and 5...there is a
significant model divergence with the UK...GFDL...ECMWF being
faster and off to the north and the GFS and GFS ensemble slower and
off to the south. These differences are being driven by the
amplitude of the short-wave trough that will be pushing off of the
US East Coast at that time. The NOGAPS and consensus models are in
between these possibilities. The track forecast is close to the
consensus models and slightly slower and to the right of the
previous prediction.

A G-IV aircraft research mission is currently enroute to Sample
Helene's environment as part of noaa's salex Experiment.
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/1500z 18.8n 45.6w 65 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 19.5n 46.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 20.4n 48.3w 75 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 21.1n 49.4w 80 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 21.9n 50.6w 85 kt
72hr VT 19/1200z 23.5n 53.5w 90 kt
96hr VT 20/1200z 25.5n 56.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 21/1200z 28.5n 58.0w 80 kt

[Brent]

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 46.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.4N 48.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 49.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 50.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 28.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...HELENE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1145 MILES
...1845 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...45.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

Brent,now there are four systems that NHC has to prepare and issue the Advisories so it may take a while to get the Helene one,unless they release it first from Gordon,Lane and Miriam.

[Evil Jeremy]

i think its in orfer on when they formed. Gordon first, then Lane, then Helena and finially the new EPAC one.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think it will be Gordon, Helene, Land, then Miriam because you have to remember the these cyclones are in different time zones. So Lane and Miriam will be out at around 8 PM.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think it will be Gordon, Helene, Land, then Miriam because you have to remember the these cyclones are in different time zones. So Lane and Miriam will be out at around 8 PM.

there all issued at 5:00PM EDT.

[Evil Jeremy]

if you go to the NHC site, and look at the release times for the "Forecast/Advisory" for each storm, they all have the same time, currently 1500 UTC. also, the time differnce is 3 hours, so that is why, for example, the advisory for TD-14E was released at 8:00AM PDT, while the atlantic one for Helene was released at 11:00AM EDT.