Tornado outbreak Saturday - Central states

#41 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:11 pm

Sioux Falls radar back up.

Some cells have gone from just cumulus clouds to tornadic supercells in less than 30 minutes...talk about unstable...

#42 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:13 pm

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 510 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES EAST OF DENISON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 774...WW 775...

DISCUSSION...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO
WW AREA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING AS LLJ/MOISTURE INFLOW STRENGTHEN
DOWNSTREAM FROM 70+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. DECREASING
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL OFFSET NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND MAY
MAINTAIN TORNADO THREAT INTO LATE EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...CORFIDI

PDS issued!!!

Bunkertor · #43 Postby **Bunkertor** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:13 pm

This development is even worse than in april, i think.

#44 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:15 pm

Bunkertor wrote:This development is even worse than in april, i think.

I agree. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Violent tornadoes, perhaps F5 tornadoes, are not impossible today.

This could be the worst September outbreak in US history.

WindRunner · #45 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:18 pm

Could very easily be the worst in September history, as September doesn't have too much of a history for severe.

Brookings tornado - touchdown reported at 4:57pm CDT 4mi north of Brookings, moving NE at 40mph. Won't be too long until this enters the PDS box.

#46 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:19 pm

What is remarkable: NO confirmed tornadoes in the first 14 days of September! Now to go from the calmest period of the year to a potentially devastating outbreak...

Bunkertor · #47 Postby **Bunkertor** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:23 pm

Could you explain, when pds is issued and what aa pds-box is ?

#48 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:24 pm

Bunkertor wrote:Could you explain, when pds is issued and what aa pds-box is ?

PDS = Particularly Dangerous Situation, for the worst of the worst watches. In this case, it means a major tornado outbreak is likely.

WindRunner · #49 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What is remarkable: NO confirmed tornadoes in the first 14 days of September! Now to go from the calmest period of the year to a potentially devastating outbreak...

Not surprising considering the number of days of "no svr tstorms" outlooks they have issued the past few weeks.

MAJOR tornado redeveloping on the southernmost cell in FSD . . . should be visible on the lowest tilt in the next couple of scans, though you can already see the hook redeveloping. TOR now extends into MN, and another TOR issued well into MN (Swift & Chippewa counties).

WindRunner · #50 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:26 pm

Bunkertor wrote:Could you explain, when pds is issued and what aa pds-box is ?

PDS indicates the severity of the situation (in this case the worst possible, as it is a PDS Tornado watch), and the box is just a reference to the fact that the watches are issued in boxes.

#51 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:27 pm

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My storm analysis as of 2230 UTC:

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Violent tornadoes, very large damaging hail and destructive straight-line winds are all possible. It covers a much larger area than the SPC thinks; I feel the area will expand greatly north and south. The maximum threat is in the Extreme Risk area.

If you live in the area to be affected, prepare to take cover by any safe means necessary! This could be a devastating outbreak!

#52 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:30 pm

One hook looks capable of a violent tornado southwest of Sioux Falls...long night ahead!

Bunkertor · #53 Postby **Bunkertor** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:31 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:Could you explain, when pds is issued and what aa pds-box is ?

PDS indicates the severity of the situation (in this case the worst possible, as it is a PDS Tornado watch), and the box is just a reference to the fact that the watches are issued in boxes.

@windR/Crazy:

OK, thanks. Worst possible. There are not that much population affected, i think. When it doesn´t move towards Minneapolis

WindRunner · #54 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:32 pm

Check out Douglas county TOR . . . hook, 95kts GTG, hook extends through 20kft. Town of Delmont (pretty small) is in its path.

Forget the other one I said was major for now, appears to have been one really good volume.

#55 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:32 pm

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 530 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSEAU
MINNESOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES MINNESOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 774...WW 775...WW 776...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO WW
AREA THOUGH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS FLUXES
INCREASE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO NNE/SSW ORIENTED BANDS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

...CORFIDI

WindRunner · #56 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:33 pm

I think they will issues at least a SVR watch to the north of this mess of boxes, or at least they should, as all of these storms will be streaming up there, and with no real inhibiting factors to weaken them, there is a good threat up through the border, the northern part of your MOD area.

#57 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:37 pm

WindRunner wrote:I think they will issues at least a SVR watch to the north of this mess of boxes, or at least they should, as all of these storms will be streaming up there, and with no real inhibiting factors to weaken them, there is a good threat up through the border, the northern part of your MOD area.

They issued a Tornado Watch (non-PDS) up there. Unless you are talking about up in Canada (southern Manitoba/southern part of northwestern Ontario)...

Bunkertor · #58 Postby **Bunkertor** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.keloland.com/netcast/Index.cfm - KELO-TV coverage

Broadcast is standing. Do you only see a cloudpicture, too ?

#59 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:43 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.keloland.com/netcast/Index.cfm - KELO-TV coverage

Broadcast is standing. Do you only see a cloudpicture, too ?

Yes, it is likely because they went side-by-side between weather coverage and a football game...

Bunkertor · #60 Postby **Bunkertor** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:45 pm

All right and they have to interrupt because sportsmarketing-rights are concerned. It´s all the same over her. Who plays. I only saw some green. Is it the Packers ?

Tornado outbreak Saturday - Central states

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