Tornado outbreak Saturday - Central states

[CrazyC83]

All right and they have to interrupt because sportsmarketing-rights are concerned. It´s all the same over her. Who plays. I only saw some green. Is it the Packers ?

Some college or university - NFL games are on Sundays mostly, college on Saturdays. Hopefully they aren't in the tornado threat area! Imagine trying to evacuate a stadium?

[WindRunner]

I think they will issues at least a SVR watch to the north of this mess of boxes, or at least they should, as all of these storms will be streaming up there, and with no real inhibiting factors to weaken them, there is a good threat up through the border, the northern part of your MOD area.

They issued a Tornado Watch (non-PDS) up there. Unless you are talking about up in Canada (southern Manitoba/southern part of northwestern Ontario)...

Actually, the MD 1974 area.

[WindRunner]

Huge BWER on the cell due NW of Sioux Falls in the 22:40Z scan . . . and 60dBz to over 40kft should be some monster hail . . . radar pics in a minute.

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA
KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 774...WW 775...WW
776...WW 777...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NE NM/ERN CO. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
ALSO BE ENHANCED LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY AS WW AREA COMES
UNDER INFLUENCE OF EVOLVING ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPR MS VLY
SPEED MAX. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW
DISCRETE STORMS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL... ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
DECREASE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...CORFIDI


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA
KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 774...WW 775...WW
776...WW 777...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NE NM/ERN CO. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
ALSO BE ENHANCED LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY AS WW AREA COMES
UNDER INFLUENCE OF EVOLVING ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPR MS VLY
SPEED MAX. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW
DISCRETE STORMS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL... ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
DECREASE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...CORFIDI


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 162250
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

TORNADO WATCH 778 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-009-015-017-025-033-035-041-047-051-053-057-061-077-079-
095-097-105-113-115-127-143-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-
191-197-170700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0778.060916T2255Z-060917T0700Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHASE CLARK COMANCHE
COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD
GEARY HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN
MARION MCPHERSON MORRIS
OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT
RENO RICE RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK
STAFFORD SUMNER WABAUNSEE


OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053-055-
057-059-065-071-073-075-093-103-129-141-149-151-153-170700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0778.060916T2255Z-060917T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GRADY GRANT GREER
HARMON HARPER JACKSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
MAJOR NOBLE ROGER MILLS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD


TXC009-023-045-075-087-101-107-125-153-155-191-197-211-269-275-
295-345-483-485-487-170700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0778.060916T2255Z-060917T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR BRISCOE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD
FOARD HALL HARDEMAN
HEMPHILL KING KNOX
LIPSCOMB MOTLEY WHEELER
WICHITA WILBARGER


ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...LUB...TOP...ICT...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 778 TORNADO KS OK TX 162255Z - 170700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NW SLN/SALINA KS/ - 60SSE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /14WNW SLN - 49SSE CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.

LAT...LON 38999661 33619866 33610109 38999922

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 778 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Now watches from the Canadian border to Texas...

[WindRunner]

The BWER at 8.7° tilit, 22:45Z volume:



Volume render of 22:40Z scan, showing developing updraft:

[CrazyC83]

That could easily put down a major or even violent tornado.

[WindRunner]

Well, hook is now developing on that cell on the higher tilts, and maybe a slight indication of one at the base, though zero velocity support, and nothing reliable on SW.

[WindRunner]

And just got a TOR on it as well . . . making for Moody county's second TOR of the day.

[JonathanBelles]

The BWER at 8.7° tilit, 22:45Z volume:



Volume render of 22:40Z scan, showing developing updraft:

where did you get that image?

[WindRunner]

From a piece of software I have . . . GR2Analyst . . . check it out at http://www.grlevelx.com .

It's a touch expensive, as it's intended for serious radar analysts and truly intended for post-storm analysis, though it works in live mode as well. There is also a 21-day trial version of it if you want to see how it works.

[CrazyC83]

I don't have a super-powerful computer needed for that, unfortunately.

[CrazyC83]

KELO: Tornado on the ground in the same area hit by an F3 on August 24...

[WindRunner]

Yeah, luckily I had just upgraded my graphics card a couple months before finding the GRS products, thus I can handle them fairly well. The real issue I have is running more than two copies at once is not that my computer can't handle it (I've run 5 at once without crashing, though I only had 15KB of 1GB of RAM left ), but that I don't have the bandwith to be downloading a 2-meg Level II file every 4 minutes for 3 or more radar sites . . . eventually, I'll just bog down with requests and nothing updates . . . so I'm trying to avoid opening anything other than ABR and FSD tonight.

You should be able to run GRLevel3 (if you aren't already, that is). Very minimal requirements, and you only need a decent graphics card if you want to smooth the radar data.

[WindRunner]

KELO: Tornado on the ground in the same area hit by an F3 on August 24...

Is this the Beadle/Kingsbury county TOR?

[CrazyC83]

KELO: Tornado on the ground in the same area hit by an F3 on August 24...

Is this the Beadle/Kingsbury county TOR?

Yep that is correct.

[CrazyC83]

KELO: Heavy damage in and around Colton SD. Looks like an F2.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 774...776...777...

VALID 162312Z - 170015Z

VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/DESTABILIZATION IN EXIT REGION OF
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW RANGES
FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN DISCRETE ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL LIKELY PEAKING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TOWARD 00-01Z...
CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO AN ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. UNTIL THEN...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK OF TORNADOES...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 09/16/2006


ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

45859785 46229731 46399600 46179528 45749458 44739452
43869530 43109617 42929684 42869727 43229807 45519821

[WindRunner]

Ok . . . well that definately won't be as devistating as before, though certainly not needed . . .

Speaking of repeats, the LSRs near the I-90/Hwy 80 interchange are once again under a TOR, though one seems unlikely, mostly just some heavy rain and .75"-1" hail. Of course, really not needed after the tornado two hours ago, though this is there third or fourth storm of the night in that area, three of which have been warned.

[Bunkertor]

All right and they have to interrupt because sportsmarketing-rights are concerned. It´s all the same over her. Who plays. I only saw some green. Is it the Packers ?

Imagine trying to evacuate a stadium?

That´s nearly not possible...

[CrazyC83]

They have barely begun to enter the PDS watch, where activity will be greatest. I think the outbreak will be on until around midnight at least.