Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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#321 Postby artist » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:11 pm

thunder - that would still be disatrous for Hispanola.
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#322 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:12 pm

I'll say it...:eek: HOLY CRAP :eek: If this trend continues...then I might get a little worried...normally a system makes landfall around my b-day...and monday is my b-day...so could this be this years b-day storm? Isabel...Ophelia...??? (I know...it will turn most likely...and this is the 18Z run...however its been shifting westard all day...yipes...)
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#323 Postby caribepr » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:12 pm

Thunder44 wrote:It's takes it so ridiculously far south that we can hope it runs into Hispanola and weakens it alot before it comes up the east coast.


I guess in NYC that's a simple thing to hope for... :roll:
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#324 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:15 pm

when do the rest of the new models come out?
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#325 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:when do the rest of the new models come out?


18z GFDL comes out in a few minutes.
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#326 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:19 pm

It's so far out that I can take any long-range forecast seriously. In the next 24 - 48 hours, no worries. Enough for me!!
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#327 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:when do the rest of the new models come out?


18z GFDL comes out in a few minutes.

and the rest of them?
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#328 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:21 pm

Could have credibility with Gordon not clearing out.
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#329 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:21 pm

caribepr wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:It's takes it so ridiculously far south that we can hope it runs into Hispanola and weakens it alot before it comes up the east coast.


I guess in NYC that's a simple thing to hope for... :roll:


It was a joke. I just don't take this run seriously.
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#330 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:22 pm

if i remember right the 18z is not as credible as the 0z and 12z, right?
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#331 Postby caribepr » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:25 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
caribepr wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:It's takes it so ridiculously far south that we can hope it runs into Hispanola and weakens it alot before it comes up the east coast.


I guess in NYC that's a simple thing to hope for... :roll:


It was a joke. I just don't take this run seriously.


Ok. Sometimes things are just not funny from certain perspectives (and I usuallly have a pretty good sense of humor!).
Thank you for explaining.
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#332 Postby curtadams » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:27 pm

FWIW, when I checked earlier today, only the NOGAPS was predicting Gordon's stall. The other models were wrong about at least that one significant influence.

Helene's on a pretty strict diurnal cycle! Third night in a row, the sun goes down, and boom, a big convective burst. Obviously a night owl.
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#333 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:28 pm

fact789 wrote:if i remember right the 18z is not as credible as the 0z and 12z, right?


why would there be a diffrence in their reliablity?
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#334 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:29 pm

Why doesnt the big trough pick it up though? Shouldnt it of left some time of weakness for Mrs. Helene to go up?
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#335 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:30 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Why doesnt the big trough pick it up though? Shouldnt it of left some time of weakness for Mrs. Helene to go up?


the jackpot question of the night.
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#336 Postby storms in NC » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:32 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I'll say it...:eek: HOLY CRAP :eek: If this trend continues...then I might get a little worried...normally a system makes landfall around my b-day...and monday is my b-day...so could this be this years b-day storm? Isabel...Ophelia...??? (I know...it will turn most likely...and this is the 18Z run...however its been shifting westard all day...yipes...)


You and My brother and your BDays. He also gets one for his. LOL Sept6th LOL
Going to send you two the North Pole
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#337 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:32 pm

Holy smokes, I thought Helene was a fish, done deal but looks like she could pose a threat to the east coast. Time to keep an eye on this one.
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#338 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:33 pm

Ok...

The 18Z GFS is SICK!

If it were to verify, it would mean a hurricane would be right off the S.Florida coast after crossing 20N as far east as 45W. That would be extraordinary and as far as I know, unprecedented. Someone direct me to an analogue, please.

I can't possibly believe this track is correct, but my interest is suddenly piqued.

Also, as a side note......the Euro's 168 hr position is now 30N 60W. Last night, its 168hr position was 40N 52W.....quite a shift.
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#339 Postby curtadams » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:34 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Why doesnt the big trough pick it up though? Shouldnt it of left some time of weakness for Mrs. Helene to go up?

With NOGAPS and GFS, the ones that forecast the trough to miss, a) the trough weakens rapidly once offshore and b) a high develops rapidly WNW of Helene to catch her.
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#340 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:35 pm

GFDL still on track for recurve.

This model disagreement is about as severe as it comes.

I know the GFS provides the most excitement, but its deviation is SO extreme, it has to be wrong.

Right?
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