Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherTracker]

looks nice this evening

[cycloneye]

And quite honestly, if you ask most of the pro-mets, they probably think it has a better chance of verifying than the GFS.

It will be interesting to get the comments from our resident pro mets tonight about these discrepances between the global models.

[Evil Jeremy]

Models come for 18z...

really the only new models in there, besides the GFDL, are some of the least reliable ones!

also, activity has really picked up on this thread after the new GFS came in!

[JonathanBelles]

can somebody take out the usless models?

[huricanwatcher]

looks like the 'useless' models might be creating some panic.... please someone bring all back to reality?

[WeatherTracker]

also, activity has really picked up on this thread after the new GFS came in!

I see that also....Once there is any little hint about a US threat people get hyped up....It is sad to say that I am one of them....

[WeatherTracker]

looks like the 'useless' models might be creating some panic.... please someone bring all back to reality?

I wouldnt count the GFS as one of the useless models....

[Evil Jeremy]

also, activity has really picked up on this thread after the new GFS came in!

I see that also....Once there is any little hint about a US threat people get hyped up....It is sad to say that I am one of them....

same here.

[whereverwx]

I really don’t think there will be any panic with Helene—no east coast landfall. Most of the models still say this will be a fish, and if we were to rely on the GFS the whole season (assuming it’s 100% accurate in this scenario), then we would already be at our 50 billionth named storm.

[UpTheCreek]

I really don’t think there will be any panic with Helene—no east coast landfall. Most of the models still say this will be a fish, and if we were to rely on the GFS the whole season (assuming it’s 100% accurate in this scenario), then we would already be at our 50 billionth named storm.

Voice of reason and I agree. But I'm still keeping an eye on her! One eye anyway....

[WeatherTracker]

I really don’t think there will be any panic with Helene—no east coast landfall. Most of the models still say this will be a fish, and if we were to rely on the GFS the whole season (assuming it’s 100% accurate in this scenario), then we would already be at our 50 billionth named storm.

that is very true and I really do think the GFDL or UKM will verify, but we cannot ignore the GFS...It can be on to something...It forcasted florence good.

[dixiebreeze]

NOGAPS is underrated. But then I'm not sure everyone should live and die by the models.

[huricanwatcher]

Well if the models are not useless...... LET ALL get nervous and crazy...... god havent had much of that this year....... BRING IT ON... (ok..... im nutz)

[hurricanetrack]

Wait until the 0Z runs tonight and then let's see what we got!

[brunota2003]

Well if the models are not useless...... LET ALL get nervous and crazy...... god havent had much of that this year....... BRING IT ON... (ok..... im nutz)

Ok...I am shipping you to the South Pole... you can bring it on down there If that track were to verify (GFS one) then it would just about go over my head...

[Meso]

Hey, watch it... I`m rather close to the south pole... Although I`ll welcome a "bring it" attitude to this severe-weatherless area...

Will be interesting to see what the models are showing when I wake up.They have changed quite a bit in the past 24 hours.

Edit : By "models" I mean the "useless" ones [exl. gfs]... I know the reliable ones have been on the same thing for ages.

[UpTheCreek]

If that track were to verify (GFS one) then it would just about go over my head...

Still a lot of people around here that are still flooded from the last blow. But I am hardly concerned at this point.

[ronjon]

Remember GFS was the first to correctly forecast Ernesto's radical change in track so you can't discount it. Also, the GFS has been trending west the last several runs as well as the BAM series which are run off GFS initializations. Lets all take a deep breath and relax - remember its 8 days out. I'm not as confident as wxman57 on the GFDL recurve although I have a very healthy respect for this model. With that said, it appears to me tonight that the progressive sharp eastern coast trough pattern (positive PNA) may be transitioning toward the western trough-eastern ridge pattern. I don't think this is unusual since we've been in this eastern trough pattern a couple of weeks now - one would think there would be an Indian Summer for the east coast setting in toward the latter part of September. Anyway, this one will be fun to track and sort out. Here is the full animation of the 18Z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxwatcher91]

How bout just remember the wonderful solution the GFS gave about the CV wave hitting New England as a major hurricane. I wouldnt give this one GFS run too much consideration...

As a side note, it looks like there is a chance for Helene to duck under the ridge and move westward. The NHC has a tough storm to forecast here as instead of a simple spread of the models by day 5, there are two unique possibilities meaning a consensus would really just drive it straight into the ridge. It will either go north or west around the high.

[cycloneye]

16/2345 UTC 19.5N 47.1W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean