Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[TampaFl]

[wxman57]

Which models are these exactly, wxman57? I'm just curious because there are a lot of models labeled 00Z 17Sep and it's awfully early in the evening.

You can find some info on some of them here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml?

There are a number of variations of the GFDL, GFS, and NOGAPS, mostly. A few good consensus models (CONU and CGUN). GFNI is the US Navy's version of the GFDL, an interpreted 00Z run. In fact, all the models ending in "I" are interpreted runs, meaning that there was no new data, they used 18Z projections for the initialization, I believe. The full 00Z runs won't be out for 2-3 hours or more.

[wxman57]

http://proa.accuweather.com/phoenix2/images/professional/hurricanes/1960_atl_DONNA.png

Donna passed 300 miles south of where Helene is now. Helene is already north of the islands of the Caribbean Sea.

[HurricaneQueen]

Hurricane Donna is still a four letter word here in SW FL. 46 years later. Seeing that graphic and even considering a similar track from Helena brings chills. I will be listening closely to the Pro Mets and NHC in the coming week.

Lynn

[brunota2003]

Donna crossed 50W before it crossed 15N and crossed 65W before crossing 20N...so I dont see a correlation there?

[HurricaneQueen]

That's true. Donna was the last major hurricane to hit St. Maarten/St. Martin prior to Luis in 1995. However, the (Donna) graphic depicted here is very similar to the GFS 18Z despite the origins of the storm. Of course, the GFL does not show a West Fl hit but it does show her going all the way up the coast.

Lynn

[Rainband]

That's true. Donna was the last major hurricane to hit St. Maarten/St. Martin prior to Luis in 1995. However, the (Donna) graphic depicted here is very similar to the GFS 18Z despite the origins of the storm.

Lynn

exactly

[EDR1222]

Patterns can change, we are all aware of that, but Donna's path seems to indicate that there was a fairly deep and strong high pressure ridge that would have to have been fairly persistent judging by her path. That type of patten has not been in place this year, with troughs sweeping across the US and out into the Atlantic. We shall see however.

[Emmett_Brown]

We have a habbit of looking far into the future with these storms, when the current conditions are actually more interesting... Helene seems to have slowed considerably while getting more organized over the past few hours. Motion seems to be slow N/NW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

It's gaining more latitude... the recurve early camp is starting to look correct...

[Bgator]

LOL...The models say its moving 295 and i do not see the NNW turn....

[WeatherTracker]

over the past 12 hours more models have begun to shift westward...could this be a sign of a change in track?

[WeatherTracker]

i wonder if more models will turn west...

[wxman57]

over the past 12 hours more models have begun to shift westward...could this be a sign of a change in track?

I'm not sure what models you're speaking of. I see no change in the past 12 hours. All dynamic models but the GFS recurve Helene east of 60W. Don't use the BAM models in the subtropics with a changing weather pattern in advance of Helene, and never use LBAR or A98E.

[huricanwatcher]

and how many more are going to shift west? ......... a trend here?

[Derek Ortt]

the runs ending in I are interpolated runs

They take the previous track and interpolate it onto the latest center fix

[WeatherTracker]

over the past 12 hours more models have begun to shift westward...could this be a sign of a change in track?

I'm not sure what models you're speaking of. I see no change in the past 12 hours. All dynamic models but the GFS recurve Helene east of 60W. Don't use the BAM models in the subtropics with a changing weather pattern in advance of Helene, and never use LBAR or A98E.

well...i was using those models....The GFDL has been locked on a NW to N turn over the since the storm formed....I am thinking that the GFDL will verify...What do you think?

[wxman57]

6 models indicate a west turn in the future...while 8 models indicate a north turn.... Almost deadheat.....

Oh, I see what you're looking at, the 3 BAM models, extrapolated track, a climo model, and the operational AVN (GFS). Only one of those, the AVN, is dynamic. The others should be ignored. Not a dead heat if you know what models you're comparing.

[WeatherTracker]

can anyone point out a possible eye formation? I think i may have an idea..

[wxman57]

well...i was using those models....The GFDL has been locked on a NW to N turn over the since the storm formed....I am thinking that the GFDL will verify...What do you think?

Recurving east of 65W is considerably more likely than a U.S. east coast hit. Note I said 65W and not 60W. I wouldn't be too sure Helene won't affect Bermuda, but I thinkt he next stronger trof late next week will be too much for Helene to contend with.

[Noah]

Derek???

In your opinion, do you think florida could be effected here? and when do you think we will really know this? Thanks