Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Thunder44 · #461 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:58 pm

They shifted the track a little further west. Now it's at 29.0N 58.5W at 120hrs.

#462 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:58 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
Rainband wrote:It's showing 12Z for me

Click "MyWxmap" and then login as a guest.

Same for me , no 00Z run yet

Thunder44 · #463 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:01 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
Rainband wrote:It's showing 12Z for me

Click "MyWxmap" and then login as a guest.

Same for me , no 00Z run yet

There's a different set of graphics for the NOGAPS you can get it at that site. That shows the 0z run already. Just click on the a Atantic or Tropical Atlantic map and then loop it. It should say Sept 17 0z at the top of the second column from the left.

Website · #464 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:02 pm

From the discussion:

WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW...
THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER
MODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS
ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

WeatherTracker · #465 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:02 pm

Water
vapor imagery and 00z upper-air data indicate the upper-low that
has recently moved off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has been moving
eastward similar to the GFS solution...rather than digging
southeastward toward Bermuda as forecast by the other models. With
the strongest winds now indicated by water vapor imagery and
upper-air data to be on the south and east side of the upper-low...
the 18z GFS run may be indicating a significant change in the model
forecast tracks could be forthcoming

from the 11pm advisory

Three Blind Mice · #466 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:02 pm

11 PM Discussion looks like a big heads up..

WeatherTracker · #467 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:03 pm

we need some pro mets opinion on this.....

vacanechaser · #468 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:03 pm

huge 11pm discussion.... wow... by the man too

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Josephine96 · #469 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:04 pm

Significant change? do we need to get back to paying attention?

WeatherTracker · #470 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:05 pm

watch the number of people on the baord within the next 12 hours...I bet it will double just because of this latest discussion....

pgoss11 · #471 Postby **pgoss11** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:06 pm

Something tells me the board is going to get very busy in the coming days ahead.

YouTube · #472 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:06 pm

Here we go, if this hurricane hits the U.S., this will be the discussion to remember as the time when it all changed from fish to problems down the road. Can't wait to see the 00Z runs.......perhaps they will all align towards a recurve and put an end to our suffering- but then again, who knows- it could be more in the OTHER direction- thus prolonging the anguish and late nights of staring at maps and models. But hey, this is why we all LOVE this so much- you just never know.

WeatherTracker · #473 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:07 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Here we go, if this hurricane hits the U.S., this will be the discussion to remember as the time when it all changed from fish to problems down the road. Can't wait to see the 00Z runs.......perhaps they will all align towards a recurve and put an end to our suffering- but then again, who knows- it could be more in the OTHER direction- thus prolonging the anguish and late nights of staring at maps and models. But hey, this is why we all LOVE this so much- you just never know.

right on brother!!!

WeatherTracker · #474 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:08 pm

What time does the GFS start running?

vacanechaser · #475 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:08 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:Here we go, if this hurricane hits the U.S., this will be the discussion to remember as the time when it all changed from fish to problems down the road. Can't wait to see the 00Z runs.......perhaps they will all align towards a recurve and put an end to our suffering- but then again, who knows- it could be more in the OTHER direction- thus prolonging the anguish and late nights of staring at maps and models. But hey, this is why we all LOVE this so much- you just never know.
right on brother!!!

is hulk hogan here????lol

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

stormchazer · #476 Postby **stormchazer** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:11 pm

Yep, it is definately looking a little more interesting, especially points from the Carolinas north and Bermuda. Stewart has basically sent up a warning flag that says "we might want to pay a little more attention."

WeatherTracker · #477 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:11 pm

there is 121 people viewing this forum

stormchazer · #478 Postby **stormchazer** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:13 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:there is 121 people viewing this forum

It will be 242 by 11am Sunday. :lol:

WeatherTracker · #479 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:15 pm

looking a little better....

WeatherTracker · #480 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:16 pm

So do you guys think the GFS will verify? Could be a major blow to the well respected GFDL....

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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