Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

sma10 · #82 Postby **sma10** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:52 pm

ROCK wrote:
sma10 wrote:Obviously, the 00Z GFS is similar to the 18Z.

A very subtle difference appears to be that at the longer range, the high does not quite seem as strong. Helene moves a bit slower and looks like she recurves a bit farther east.

But in general the same.....the only differences appear at longer range.

you right. Does recurve more east now at 216hr.....

The flip-flopping is interesting.
18Z turned Helene north at 80W; 00Z turns at 70W. That's a difference of 600 miles. What's next at 6Z?

Bgator · #83 Postby **Bgator** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:52 pm

Ok, so the GFS makes a direct hit on bermuda 360 hours out, but one thing that gets me is when it turns north, it weakens immedietly, no weakening period, just BAM its weak...200 Hours out is way to far to look right now though...SO who knows..

#84 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:53 pm

#85 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS at 360 Hours

Ok peeps here is the complete loop.

that shows it being absorbed by the front

#86 Postby **fci** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:53 pm

ROCK wrote:
fact789 wrote:something nobodys mentioned is theres a storm behind helene.

yep, but recurves almost immediately.....

Yes it does but the one BEHIND the one BEHIND Helene is a lower rider and is coming up on the islands at the end of the loop.

#87 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:54 pm

fci wrote:
ROCK wrote:
fact789 wrote:something nobodys mentioned is theres a storm behind helene.

yep, but recurves almost immediately.....

Yes it does but the one BEHIND the one BEHIND Helene is a lower rider and is coming up on the islands at the end of the loop.

Yep... will be watching that one intently if its that far south and trough pulling out.

Opal storm · #88 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:55 pm

Wow,not looking good for Bermuda.This has been a bad season for them.

Bgator · #89 Postby **Bgator** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:55 pm

Lookin at those snapshots, the trof is all the way up in canada, how would that pick it up?

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:03 am

00z GFS at 384 Hours

Run is now complete.What do all think of this run of GFS,Credible or not?

#91 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:03 am

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS at 384 Hours

Run is now complete.What do all think of this run og GFS,Credible or not?

I want some of what GFS is drinking.

sma10 · #92 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:06 am

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS at 384 Hours

Run is now complete.What do all think of this run of GFS,Credible or not?

NoGaps no change. Canadian no change. We'll see later about the Euro and Uk, but I'm beginning to think that the GFS is just wrong.

Thunder44 · #93 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:06 am

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS at 384 Hours

Run is now complete.What do all think of this run og GFS,Credible or not?

It's consitent with previous runs in moving farther west and connecting with the first and second trofs. Ignore what happens after 168hrs for now, that's too far off. This is not to suggest it has the right solution. The 0z CMC still recurves it east of 60W.

Thunder44 · #94 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:11 am

Now the 0z UKMET just came in. It's shifted further west. Looks like tonight NOGAPS and yesterdays ECMWF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

#95 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:13 am

GFS builds the high in above Helene and the others too later. That is one thing I noticed. I guess it depends on what type/location/speed of the troughs coming down. I wouldn't totally discount GFS but, let's see if it continues for the next couple more runs before moving your camp to another part of the forest cause you one guy tells you there might be a bear coming near you in 5-7 days.

#96 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:14 am

Thunder44 wrote:Now the 0z UKMET just came in. It's shifted further west. Looks like tonight NOGAPS and yesterdays ECMWF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET builds the high in on top of Helene.

Thunder44 · #97 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:17 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Now the 0z UKMET just came in. It's shifted further west. Looks like tonight NOGAPS and yesterdays ECMWF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET builds the high in on top of Helene.

I see that now. That may allow it to go westward from there.

#98 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:18 am

Thunder44 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Now the 0z UKMET just came in. It's shifted further west. Looks like tonight NOGAPS and yesterdays ECMWF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET builds the high in on top of Helene.

I see that now. That may allow it to westward from there.

Let's hope it hits the first weakness.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm2-2.html

sma10 · #99 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:20 am

The models are now spread out amongst three solutions.

South and West (GFS); Trapped near 30N 60W (Euro, UK, Nogaps); Out-of-here (Canadian, GFDL)

#100 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:20 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2java.html

Run this loop above. I really hope that it hits the first weakness cause looks like a big ridge maybe setting up in front of that trough.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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