Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[WeatherTracker]

its not heading west its not heading west its not heading west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

what do you mean? NHC says it is heading WNW....

[wxman57]

http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage1/hurr/other/combo_atl_AL08.png

Latest Models From Accuweather Pro.

I've never been able to find anything on AccuWeather Pro's web site. I would assume that the "models" image above is a plot of GFS ensemble forecasts, the same model run with different initialization variables. Nothing to get too concerned about. The 06Z GFS backed away from the east coast threat.

[Evil Jeremy]

those are not all of the models

[WeatherTracker]

http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage1/hurr/other/combo_atl_AL08.png

Latest Models From Accuweather Pro.

I've never been able to find anything on AccuWeather Pro's web site. I would assume that the "models" image above is a plot of GFS ensemble forecasts, the same model run with different initialization variables. Nothing to get too concerned about. The 06Z GFS backed away from the east coast threat.

It consists of about 52 model forecasts.... but some of them are the intropolated models....

[Evil Jeremy]

its not heading west its not heading west its not heading west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

what do you mean? NHC says it is heading WNW....

looking at that loop it seems to be heading almose due west.

[AussieMark]

the WV image does not look as decent

is the storm deteriorating

a few hours ago had a ring of purple now its a smaller quadrant

could dry air be starting to have a impact on the system?

[storms in NC]

its not heading west its not heading west its not heading west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

what do you mean? NHC says it is heading WNW....

I think he was talking about the models that was posted and most of them going west. But it is going WNW and some times a little more west.

[wxman57]

its not heading west its not heading west its not heading west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Better look again. Don't rely on two images 30 minutes apart for motion. At 3:15am CDT it was near 19.9N/48.0W. At 8:45am CDT it's near 20.4N/48.5W. That's 0.5 deg north and 0.6 deg west. Moving northwest in the past 6 hours.

The satellite loop is showing trochoidal motion, a wobbling of the center due to uneven mass distribution, most likely. Helene should cross 50W at around 21.3-21.4N.

[rockyman]

Are all Accuwx Pro pics "private"? I've never seen a Pro image posted here.

[wxman57]

http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage1/hurr/other/combo_atl_AL08.png

Latest Models From Accuweather Pro.

I've never been able to find anything on AccuWeather Pro's web site. I would assume that the "models" image above is a plot of GFS ensemble forecasts, the same model run with different initialization variables. Nothing to get too concerned about. The 06Z GFS backed away from the east coast threat.

It consists of about 52 model forecasts.... but some of them are the intropolated models....

I looked all over AccuWeather Pro's site and can't find any tropical models. They hide them well. They look like they're all versions of the GFS, not 52 separate models, just one model.

[WeatherTracker]

http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage1/hurr/other/combo_atl_AL08.png

Latest Models From Accuweather Pro.

I've never been able to find anything on AccuWeather Pro's web site. I would assume that the "models" image above is a plot of GFS ensemble forecasts, the same model run with different initialization variables. Nothing to get too concerned about. The 06Z GFS backed away from the east coast threat.

It consists of about 52 model forecasts.... but some of them are the intropolated models....

I looked all over AccuWeather Pro's site and can't find any tropical models. They hide them well. They look like they're all versions of the GFS, not 52 separate models, just one model.

look at this http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_index.asp

[wxman57]

Here's a hot-off-the-press image of Helene. Now you may think that the center is easy to pinpoint, right in the middle of that big hole, right? Nope. Remember, the eye of a hurricane is about 10 miles tall. It's generally wider on top than at the bottom. So you're looking at a cone. Looking STRAIGHT DOWN into a cone, the surface center is in the middle. But the satellite is not positioned directly over this cone, it's positioned way to the west and 20 degrees south of the top of the cone.

That means the surface center will not be in the same location as the upper-level center that you see on satellite. Think about it, you're at the equator looking east-northeast toward this 10 mile-high cone. The surface center will be southwest of the center at the top of the cone. At 20N, the position may actually be about 0.1 south and 0.2 deg west of where the center of the top of the cone is.

Got it?

[WeatherTracker]

11AM

Winds 105mph

pressure 970mb

[WeatherTracker]

CAT 3---MAJOR

[wxman57]

look at this http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_index.asp

Ok, I found them. About half of them are the GFS ensembles, as I suspected (AVN0, AVN1, AVN2, etc.). There are various iterations of NOGAPS, a number of climo "models", and the BAMs. Note that the plot is only a 92 hr plot, less than 4 days. That's about when Helene will be recurving.

[WeatherTracker]

look at this http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_index.asp

Ok, I found them. About half of them are the GFS ensembles, as I suspected (AVN0, AVN1, AVN2, etc.). There are various iterations of NOGAPS, a number of climo "models", and the BAMs. Note that the plot is only a 92 hr plot, less than 4 days. That's about when Helene will be recurving.

Right....So do you think it will curve east or west of bermuda?

[wxman57]

Right....So do you think it will curve east or west of bermuda?

Yes.

[skufful]

Right....So do you think it will curve east or west of bermuda?

Yes.

Can't go wrong with that answer.

[Evil Jeremy]

lol

[wxman57]

Here's a satellite that matches up with the latest NHC advisory time. NHC has the center (a forecast position) at 20.5N/49.0W. I put an "X" where the NHC forecast the center to be from the 12Z position estimate. Now I said that the surface center isn't exactly in the middle of the eye as seen from an angle, but it's not outide the eye for a storm at such low latitudes and not TOO far east of the satellite's longitude. NHC has the center too far west for the start point. Won't make much of a difference as far as the 5-day track, though.