Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Evil Jeremy
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#401 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:47 pm

can it already be recurving? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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#402 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:SHIPS has it at 100kt now too...


SHIPS really doesn't "have" it at 100kt now. The forecasters initialized the model for a storm of 100kt intensity. Therefore, the forecasters are expecting to use 100kt for the intensity at 11pm.
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#403 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:54 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Helene is letting her hair out to the East. Doesn't she look beautiful from this point?
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#404 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:55 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:can it already be recurving? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
I really dont think so..most likely a wobble.
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#405 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:57 pm

Is it me or is she connected to Gordons tail!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html
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#406 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:12 pm

Evil Jeremy, if you look at my earlier post you can see that Helene, is perfectly by itself.
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#407 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:16 pm


That is a great loop. I have never seen that one before. I'm going to have to save that one.
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#408 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:18 pm

This looks much stronger than 100 kt. Eye is clearing out. Cat 4 soon.
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#409 Postby Normandy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:19 pm

Helene is moving near due north, very interesting
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#410 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:22 pm

Normandy wrote:Helene is moving near due north, very interesting

Don't stronger storms tend to foolow the path of least resistance i.e the weakness left behind Gordon. Maybe that's what we're seeing here.
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#411 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:22 pm

I think its just a wobble.. on the last frame, it looks to jog west slightly, at least to me...I think itll just keep stair stepping for about the next day and then head on a more westerly path
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#412 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:22 pm

Normandy wrote:Helene is moving near due north, very interesting

Don't stronger storms tend to foolow the path of least resistance i.e the weakness left behind Gordon. Maybe that's what we're seeing here.
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#413 Postby Bgator » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:36 pm

Its wobbling, and at the end of the loop i see a NW turn again...ONE thing that is ee is it looks to be moving VERY slow...Does any one else see this slow motion...
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#414 Postby Kerry04 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:39 pm

is slow good or bad?
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#415 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:40 pm

Slow is good.
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#416 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:41 pm

THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN
A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE WESTWARD CLUSTER OF GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS.


At the 11 PM Discussion,they went with the models that are more west and abandoned GFDL,EURO,CMC.
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#417 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:42 pm

Well, that's a conservative 100kts at 11pm . . . yay. Also continued with the westward shift of the track . . . Bermuda could see some TS winds from this one - maybe.
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#418 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:42 pm

Even though the NHC is being conservative, 115 mph winds isn't right. I think this is close to being a Cat-4. Why can't they just send another recon? :grr:
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#419 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:43 pm

That is huge.. Watch out Bermuda
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#420 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:43 pm

Blirb from 11pm discussion:
Thereafter... the big problem is if a trough... now
currently just offshore of the United States... weakens the ridge
enough to allow the hurricane to be picked up by a second trough in
a few days. Model guidance is generally split into two clusters.
The GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS suggest that the trough will leave the
hurricane behind while the ECMWF/GFDL believe the trough will
accelerate the hurricane out to sea.


I'm confused, the trough there saying may leave Helene behind, is that the same trough that everybody was saying would absolutely, no doubt about it, kick her out to sea. If that trough leaves her behind what does that mean for the EC?
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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