Windtalker1 wrote:gatorcane wrote:THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 315/7. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS RIDGING REBUILDS IN BETWEEN GORDON AND
HELENE. THEREAFTER... THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN
A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL
alot of uncertainty in that forecast. Basically I take it to mean if the second trough doesn't take her out I would say the chance of an EC threat goes up. There is no trough after the second trough.
Funny how most people didn't even think she would get this far west a few days ago.
I did and maintain that thinking.
All indications showed that this system was going to be a recurver but, none of us knew at what point the system would recurve. Obviously with this pattern... of course there is going to be another trough behind the 2nd trough. You say it like... of funny how you knew it was going to move more west than us. There is still a good amount of certainty that this system gets picked up by the 2nd trough in the plains. If it does not you also have to read the line where it says, "THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL
THIS IS THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THAT
IS...HOW MUCH LATITUDE HELENE CAN GAIN...COULD MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A QUICK RECURVATURE AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW PATH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.". This does not mean the system is going to likely hit the East Coast and nor was it implied.