Tropical Storm Gordon=Last Advisory Written by NHC

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#41 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:40 pm

000
WTNT22 KNHC 160234
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.4W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.4W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.7N 53.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.6N 52.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.1N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.9N 37.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#42 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:44 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160241
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006

...GORDON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1085 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

GORDON IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.3 N...53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38110
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#43 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:37 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...GORDON NEARLY STATIONARY AND STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 655 MILES...
1055 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

GORDON IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
MOTION COULD BEGIN AT ANY TIME AND THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#44 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:44 am

000
WTNT22 KNHC 161437
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.1N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.6N 52.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.6N 46.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#45 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:48 am

000
WTNT42 KNHC 161444
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE THIS MORNING AND LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT IT DID 6 HOURS AGO. A RAGGED EYE REMAINS PRESENT
AND SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -50 AND -65
DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB ARE 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT.
GORDON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THIS SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GORDON HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE WEAKENED RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED INHIBIT
GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING GORDON FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD. BY 72 HOURS...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...
AND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE NOGAPS
MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS GORDON AS A SINGLE ENTITY MOVING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS
WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A 0856 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 31.3N 53.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 32.1N 53.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 33.6N 52.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 37.6N 46.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146126
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:36 pm

WTNT42 KNHC 162033
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 65 KT AS DOES THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING GORDON IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...THE
CYCLONE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS LONGER...AND LOWER SHEAR THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS A STEADY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT UNTIL GORDON REACHES WATERS BELOW 26C DEGREES
AND INCREASING SHEAR. AT THAT TIME...SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 4 DAYS.

IT APPEARS THAT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION HAS FINALLY RESUMED AND IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 340/3. A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN AND
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL
TRACKERS MAINTAIN GORDON THROUGH 120 HOURS...ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL
FIELDS INDICATE AN OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE CYCLONE BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 DAYS AND ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN FOUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 31.7N 54.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 32.6N 53.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 34.3N 52.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 36.6N 49.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 38.6N 44.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 39.5N 32.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#47 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:37 pm

still a hurricane!
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#48 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:38 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...HURRICANE GORDON DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...
1020 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
AND A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HURRICANE GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.7 N...54.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

NNNN
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38110
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#49 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...HURRICANE GORDON DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...
1020 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
AND A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HURRICANE GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.7 N...54.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#50 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:38 pm

ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 54.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 54.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.6N 53.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.3N 52.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.6N 49.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.6N 44.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 54.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


NNNN
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Dr. Jonah Rainwater
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:45 pm
Location: Frisco, Texas
Contact:

#51 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:40 pm

Gordon's looking like Epsilon today!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146126
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:36 pm

056
WTNT42 KNHC 170230
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A 16/2351Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE 3 AGENCIES SUGEGST THAT GORDON IS A BORDERLINE
65-KT HURRICANE...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD
HELP TO CONTINUE THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS
FORECAST TO CAPTURE GORDON AND TURN THE CYCLONE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/03. NORTHWARD RIDGING TO THE EAST OF
GORDON NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOULD NUDGE THE CYCLONE
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
AFTER WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN
GORDON NORTHEASTWARD BY 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE
CYCLONE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH BRINGS
GORDON VERY CLOSE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS AS A 50-KT EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GORDON COULD MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 32.0N 53.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 33.3N 53.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.3N 51.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 37.4N 47.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 38.9N 41.7W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0000Z 40.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#53 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:40 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 170235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...GORDON BARLEY A HURRICANE AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES...
1025 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...32.0 N...53.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#54 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:41 pm

000
WTNT22 KNHC 170231
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 53.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 53.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.3N 53.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.3N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.4N 47.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.9N 41.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL NEAR AZORES
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 53.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#55 Postby P.K. » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:05 am

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

GORDON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 010/05. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL
GIVE GORDON A KICK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...PUSHING THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.

CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF GORDON'S
RAGGED EYE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C SEEN IN
POST-ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB...COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE
JUSTIFY MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
INTENSITY KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AT 12 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT
IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING
THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...SUGGEST THAT
GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE
GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GORDON
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS GORDON PASSING CLOSE TO THE AZORES AS A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AND INDICATES MERGER WITH THE
FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST REFLECTS THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WINDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE MORE
EASTERLY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
GORDON AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 32.6N 53.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 33.8N 52.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 35.9N 49.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 37.8N 45.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 38.7N 39.6W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38110
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#56 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:42 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 17 2006

...GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1495 MILES
...2405 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 53.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 53.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 53.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.2N 51.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.9N 48.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N 37.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...ABORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 53.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE
WITH AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT...AND
AFWA WAS 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 70 KT...
SINCE BOTH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND OVERALL APPEARANCE ARE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT OR TWO SINCE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 010/9...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
BEFORE. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
DEEP- LAYER TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES. THE FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED. A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24 HOURS IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FASTER MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT GORDON SHOULD BEGIN TO
OBTAIN EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HOURS...AND BECOME
MERGED WITH A FRONT IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 33.6N 53.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 35.2N 51.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 36.9N 48.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 38.6N 43.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 37.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/1200Z 40.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#57 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:44 pm

WTNT22 KNHC 180237
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 51.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 51.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 52.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.9N 49.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





WTNT42 KNHC 180237
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

AN EYE IS STILL EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES. GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH SSTS AROUND 26
DEG C. THIS REGIME SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MORE OR
LESS MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. HOWEVER AS GORDON
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...THE COMBINATION OF GORDON AND THE
LARGER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE LARGER CYCLONE WILL
DOMINATE...AND THEREFORE ABSORB...THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF
GORDON. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER IN VIEW OF THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE ABSORBING
SYSTEM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS
MODEL...THAT GORDON WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN EXPECTED HERE. THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
STORM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS..

THE HEADING HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 040...AT
12 KT. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS
GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL...U.K. MET...AND GFS CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY USING A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 35.4N 51.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 36.9N 49.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 38.0N 44.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 38.5N 29.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#58 Postby senorpepr » Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:55 am

WTNT22 KNHC 180844
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2006

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GORDON. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 49.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 49.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 50.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.8N 46.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.7N 40.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.9N 33.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#59 Postby senorpepr » Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:56 am

WTNT32 KNHC 180843
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006

...GORDON BEGINS TO MOVE FASTER...

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GORDON. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1245 MILES
...2000 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.5 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN


WTNT42 KNHC 180846
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD TOPS. DATA-T
NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED...AND
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 70 KT. HOWEVER...WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE
ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW SHEAR AND SSTS AROUND 26C...WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

GORDON CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 045/17. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ACCELERATION AS GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO
EXACTLY WHEN GORDON WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT
GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT
GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS
DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
BE REQUIRED. IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
AZORES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 36.5N 49.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 37.8N 46.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 38.7N 40.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 38.9N 33.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/0600Z 39.0N 26.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146126
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:53 am

WTNT42 KNHC 181450
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006

GORDON'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING IN VISIBLE...
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A COLD RING OF ABOUT
-60C CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WARM -6C EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 75 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB..SAB AND KGWC.
MOREOVER...THE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT.
THE INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED UP TO 80 KT. GORDON HAS JUST
PASSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER...BUT NOT COLD...WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HIGH LATITUDE
HURRICANES...HOWEVER...DO TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT RESISTANT TO VERTICAL
SHEAR. NONETHELESS...IT IS LIKELY THAT GORDON HAS REACHED ITS
SECOND PEAK IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN SOME WEAKENING SHORTLY.
THE INTENSITY PREDICTIONS ARE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GORDON IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH IS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A TURN TOWARD A DUE EASTWARD
TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS AS GORDON BECOMES STEERED BY THE
ZONAL WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITHOUT THE SLOWER
UKMET...AND NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANALYSES FROM THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF GORDON...THIS
TRANSITION IS DELAYED TO THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SPLIT AS TO
WHETHER GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL STORM OR
WHETHER IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF GORDON...THE LATTER
SCENARIO IS FAVORED WITH ABSORPTION OCCURRING AROUND 60 TO 72
HOURS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT
GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS
DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
BE REQUIRED. IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
AZORES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 37.3N 47.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 38.1N 43.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 38.5N 37.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 38.8N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/1200Z 39.9N 21.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, CFLHurricane, Frank P, hurricane2025, HurricaneBelle, islandgirl45, KeysRedWine, Lizzytiz1, prairie2, SFLcane, sunny and 85 guests