Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Dave C
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)

#21 Postby Dave C » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:16 am

Thanks, seems to be slower downloading, the price you pay for dial-up I guess.
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1749
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

#22 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:18 am

BTW Dave, do you use the new alternate sight of NOAA imagery?

A much better alternative to their sats.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#23 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:25 am

Image

Beautiful image!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2876
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

#24 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:36 am

Awwww, they look like they're holding hands!

Can you get floater 3 on the NHC site?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23011
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#25 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:41 am

Some revised Climo. I put in 23.2N/50.2W into the Coastal Services Center search engine. Set it to September-November and all storms passing within 65nm of that point. Turns out that only one named storm that was anywhere near Helene's current postition passed west of Bermuda from 1851-2005. That was Ethel in 1964 that recurved just west of Bermuda. No storm near Helene has ever reached the east U.S. Coast.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2016
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#26 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:46 am

hmmm how odd that helene back in 88 is one of the storms that fit the criteria for that graphic...

as always thanks wxman57
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#27 Postby storms in NC » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:49 am

[quote="wxman57"]Some revised Climo. I put in 23.2N/50.2W into the Coastal Services Center search engine. Set it to September-November and all storms passing within 65nm of that point. Turns out that only one named storm that was anywhere near Helene's current postition passed west of Bermuda from 1851-2005. That was Ethel in 1964 that recurved just west of Bermuda. No storm near Helene has ever reached the east U.S. Coast


you know the only sad part about history is? It can alway be broken. But not with this one. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:54 am

Image

Hell Helene!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#29 Postby artist » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:32 am

now is that an eye or what???

Image

your request is granted (not very good with lines - hehe)

Image
Last edited by artist on Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#30 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:39 am

Wow, thats just amazing...only thing missing is eyelashes and an eyebrow.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#31 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:51 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:Wow, thats just amazing...only thing missing is eyelashes and an eyebrow.

:lol: Hehe, anyone care to do the honors?

BTW, I agree with one of the posters above who said Helene's just following Gordon with her NNW jog... as she strengthens she's going to want to move poleward.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#32 Postby artist » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:00 pm

see above
I promise it won't disrupt the thread anymore! Socuts honor! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2016
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#33 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:05 pm

hmmm, even the most ardent EC hit people must have given up...cat 3 storm and we only have 3 posts in the last hour in this thread and heck we are discussing drawing eyelashes on a sat photo :bday:
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#34 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:21 pm

well... the UKMET has done a complete about face and is now sending it out to sea, instead of toward the west at the endof the forecast period

Models are now coming into agreement that this may even miss Canada
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#35 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:21 pm

12z UKMET now takes recurves it out to sea:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Looks like we may finally have some agreement here.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#36 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:22 pm

:boared:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#37 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:26 pm

gatorcane wrote::boared:


Steering currents can be very difficult to predict this time of year. Take a look at what hurricane Kyle did:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

This track surely must have had the models jumping around.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#38 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:28 pm

The models may be moving east, but on satellite she has jumped west.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#39 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:30 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:The models may be moving east, but on satellite she has jumped west.


Did you happen to read the latest disco?

"IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE IS
READY TO BEGIN THE WESTWARD TURN ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS."
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5343
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#40 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:46 pm

Hurricane Kyle LOL!

Four troughs to get him to recurve!

See for yourself.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, Google Adsense [Bot], MetroMike, SFLcane, SootyTern, Stratton23, Weathertracker96 and 130 guests