Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#41 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:02 pm

LOL - guess Kyle was a persistant little bugger huh? Hopefully it only takes 1 or 2 for Helene.

Website · #42 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:08 pm

gatorcane wrote::boared:

Same here! Thank God the Fall TV season starts tonight.

#43 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:10 pm

I have something of a question that's somewhat related to Helene... we have a cold front currently moving through our area... is this connected to the trough that's supposed to turn Helene out to sea?

#44 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:27 pm

are the new models in yet?

Stratosphere747 · #45 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:32 pm

Just glanced at the 12z GFS, and it continues to show Helene out to sea. Even futher to the east than before.

#46 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:37 pm

Brent wrote:
gatorcane wrote::boared:

Same here! Thank God the Fall TV season starts tonight.

Also good that college football has started.

artist · #47 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:41 pm

a question for the pro's here -
this staement - could it mean that Helene might miss the trough again if she justs meanders for awhile?

IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE LONGITUDE THIS WILL OCCUR. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS FROM THE LAST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY DAYS 4
AND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND HELENE WILL BE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1435.shtml

Website · #48 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:43 pm

Vortex was only 970 mb... this is probably just barely a Cat 3, if it is at all.

#49 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:43 pm

starting move more W based on latest sat images....

Stratosphere747 · #50 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:starting move more W based on latest sat images....

Which was forecasted.....

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:46 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:starting move more W based on latest sat images....

Which was forecasted.....

Yep she is right on the NHC forecast points.

#52 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:49 pm

18/1745 UTC 23.8N 50.4W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Based on sat estimates from SSD there are no changes in intensity but the NOAA plane found Helene with a more higher pressure (970 mbs) than the 11 AM Advisory that was 954 mbs.

Thunder44 · #53 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:18/1745 UTC 23.8N 50.4W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Based on sat estimates from SSD there are no changes in intensity but the NOAA plane found Helene with a more higher pressure (970 mbs) than the 11 AM Advisory that was 954 mbs

That was a VDM from yesterday's mission, Luis.

#54 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:53 pm

Yes,that was yesterday's VDM.But anyway todays 966mb that the plane found still is higher than the 954 at 11.

#55 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:07 pm

CronkPSU wrote:hmmm, even the most ardent EC hit people must have given up...cat 3 storm and we only have 3 posts in the last hour in this thread and heck we are discussing drawing eyelashes on a sat photo

Oh I suspect a few "un-named" members who consistently predict an EC or Fl landfall for most every storm; will pop up with their usual "it's going more west than expected" or " The 17 troughs may STILL miss her" or something like that!

These things you can always depend on!!!!

Thunder44 · #56 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:08 pm

603
WHXX01 KWBC 181849
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060918 1800 060919 0600 060919 1800 060920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.7N 50.7W 24.3N 52.0W 24.6N 53.4W 25.1N 55.0W
BAMM 23.7N 50.7W 24.3N 52.2W 24.7N 53.6W 25.2N 55.3W
A98E 23.7N 50.7W 24.7N 52.2W 25.3N 53.5W 25.4N 55.0W
LBAR 23.7N 50.7W 24.5N 52.2W 25.3N 54.0W 26.0N 55.9W
SHIP 100KTS 99KTS 102KTS 102KTS
DSHP 100KTS 99KTS 102KTS 102KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060920 1800 060921 1800 060922 1800 060923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 56.5W 31.6N 57.0W 37.4N 54.4W 41.8N 47.0W
BAMM 26.4N 56.8W 30.4N 57.5W 34.8N 55.0W 36.4N 49.3W
A98E 25.9N 56.4W 27.2N 57.5W 29.4N 55.6W 32.7N 47.7W
LBAR 27.3N 57.4W 33.4N 57.8W 43.1N 49.9W 43.6N 26.5W
SHIP 101KTS 96KTS 91KTS 78KTS
DSHP 101KTS 96KTS 91KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.7N LONCUR = 50.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 49.4W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 20.9N LONM24 = 48.9W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$

18z models initialized at 100kts with a pressure of 960mb

Website · #57 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:10 pm

fci wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:hmmm, even the most ardent EC hit people must have given up...cat 3 storm and we only have 3 posts in the last hour in this thread and heck we are discussing drawing eyelashes on a sat photo

Oh I suspect a few "un-named" members who consistently predict an EC or Fl landfall for most every storm; will pop up with their usual "it's going more west than expected" or " The 17 troughs may STILL miss her" or something like that!

These things you can always depend on!!!!

kevin · #58 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:18 pm

fci wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:hmmm, even the most ardent EC hit people must have given up...cat 3 storm and we only have 3 posts in the last hour in this thread and heck we are discussing drawing eyelashes on a sat photo

Oh I suspect a few "un-named" members who consistently predict an EC or Fl landfall for most every storm; will pop up with their usual "it's going more west than expected" or " The 17 troughs may STILL miss her" or something like that!

These things you can always depend on!!!!

One cannot call them "dream"casters but I do perfer 'location biased forecasters' because I can demonstrate that undeniably with statistics to those who post lat/long. I always find it amusing that people will cling to the slightest hope that it will hit their area. One has to wonder if they ever give up hope, even when the storm is by Newfoundland. :?:

MiamiensisWx · #59 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:20 pm

Viewing this visible loop, as Gordon pulls out with a mid-level trough and weak surface front just to the northwest of Helene, Helene may encounter a brief spurt of increased shearing through the next 24 to 36 hours; beyond 36 hours, however, as well as within the next 18 hours, this may help to enhance Helene's outflow and allow better eyewall and core/structural organization to occur, as evidenced in the initial stages by the aforementioned loop. As the mid-level trough and surface front pulls out beyond 36 hours, the same process may be enhanced once more briefly, depending on how the potential weak ULL developing off the North Carolina Outer Banks affects the mid-level to upper-level shearing over Helene.

#60 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:24 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
Looking at the 200mb Vorticity there seems to be a lot of upper level troughing off the east coast. This also extends down into the 500mb region. This could potentially be what is going to weaken the ridge to allow the 2nd trough to pick up Helene. GFS on the 06Z from what I saw pretty much out of the picture by 220 Hours or so.

Good analysis Capeverdewave

Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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