NW Pacific: Typhoon Shanshan (0613)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
whereverwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1109
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm

#61 Postby whereverwx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:14 pm

Wow! What island is that in the eye?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#62 Postby AussieMark » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:23 pm

it looks like either Lanyu (Orchid Island) or Green Island
0 likes   
Top
dwsqos2

#63 Postby dwsqos2 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:14 pm

0100Z Observation from Ishigakijima:

METAR ROIG 160100Z 23030G48KT 1000 +SHRA SCT007 BKN010 BKN015 25/18 Q0979

Observations from Miyakojima:

0100Z:

METAR ROMY 160100Z 16051G74KT 2000 R22/1100VP1800D SHRA SCT008 BKN015 FEW020CB 25/24 Q0985

0200Z:

METAR ROMY 160200Z 18054G77KT 2000 R22/0750V1200N SHRA SCT008 BKN015 FEW020CB 25/24 Q0986

Observations from Shimoji Shima Island:

0100Z:

METAR RORS 160100Z 16065G87KT 0600 R17/0450V1000D +SHRA SCT006 BKN013 SCT020CB 25/25 Q0982

0200Z:

METAR RORS 160200Z 17065G84KT 0300 R17/0350V1000D +SHRA SCT005 BKN010 SCT020CB 25/25 Q0982


EDIT-*Added 0200Z METARs*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#64 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:06 am

Track seems to be curving back towards Vladivostok at the end of the period. Also, 72h forecast is up to 65kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 26.0N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 31.0N 128.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 180600UTC 37.6N 132.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 190600UTC 40.2N 133.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#65 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:13 pm

Now down to 95kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 28.6N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 35.4N 132.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 181800UTC 39.2N 134.7E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 191800UTC 41.1N 137.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#66 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:28 pm

Now at 85kts, though forecast to maintain intenstiy well into the mid-latitudes.
Should be making landfall in southern Japan in about 12 hours.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 30.3N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 37.3N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 190000UTC 40.4N 135.1E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 42.3N 138.1E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

Image
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#67 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:50 pm

Wow, this could cause a lot of problems for Japan, North and South Korea, and possibly Russia as well. Sometimes the remnants of typhoons can be damaging in Russia. Typhoon Higos in 2002 claimed 15 lives in Russia.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#68 Postby P.K. » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:41 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 32.2N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 38.6N 133.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 42.4N 136.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 200600UTC 45.7N 141.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#69 Postby P.K. » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:15 am

This was 29km to the SE of the centre at 0900 GMT.

RJFU 170900Z 15077GP99KT 0300 R32/0350V1000D +SHRA FEW005 BKN010 OVC020 24/22
Q0953=
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#70 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:51 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 34.0N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 39.8N 133.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 191200UTC 42.6N 137.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 201200UTC 45.3N 143.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Image
Click for bigger picture.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#71 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:56 pm

Down to 65kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 35.8N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 40.9N 133.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 191800UTC 43.8N 139.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 201800UTC 48.4N 146.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#72 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:12 pm

Downgraded to STS, landfall forecast on Hokkaido in about 48 hours.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 37.0N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 41.3N 133.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 200000UTC 44.1N 141.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 210000UTC 51.1N 149.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#73 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:31 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 39.6N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 42.1N 136.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 200600UTC 44.3N 143.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
69HF 210600UTC 51.9N 149.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#74 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:55 am

Image

I know JMA is the official word here, but I have to agree with the JTWC that this is not a tropical cyclone.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#75 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:21 pm

Yes, often the JMA are late with recognizing ET transition, and they were easily two days late with Ioke, looks like Shanshan is no different. I'm not even sure if this still has 63kt (1-min) winds . . .


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 41.4N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 70NM NORTH 50NM SOUTH
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 45.1N 142.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 201800UTC 50.3N 148.2E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#76 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:19 pm

Down to a minimal STS.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 41.9N 135.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 46.8N 145.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#77 Postby WindRunner » Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:24 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 43.1N 137.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 48.9N 148.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#78 Postby WindRunner » Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:37 pm

Still tropical at 18Z. Needs to be ET at the 00Z advisory for the forecast two posts up to verify . . .

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 44.2N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 50.8N 148.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Image
Hopefully the last graphic for Shanshan.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#79 Postby WindRunner » Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:15 pm

Final advisory - no longer tropical.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 45N 145E
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests