Powerful Pacific Jet (150 kt progged by 12Z GFS!) continues to keep this progressive pattern going.
Timing is still uncertain, but many models prog several mobile shortwaves to swing around a general longwave trough out west (SW FLOW). First one is weak and does not have much moisture to work with, but it should bring up moisture for the second, and much more potent, system, which is progged to arrive in the Midwest on Friday.
Dewpoints are in the 70's and the shear is going to be incredible. I see one limiting factor however - CLOUDCOVER. High RH's in the upper atmosphere, high PW's, and strong forcing are going to produce an incredible amount of cloudcover in the morning. This limits destabilization.
Large low-amplitude trough is going to ensure sufficient directional shear. With less cloudcover, this is clearly a synoptically evident day with the potential of a huge tornado outbreak from LA to IN.
ECMWF and GFS agree on a less potent shortwaves to follow for next week with active progressive pattern continuing.
Am eagerly awaiting on 0Z GFS... see if it trends back west or it continues with this potentially very volatile situation.
9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Fri Sep 22, 2006 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NEWeatherguy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 135
- Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:37 pm
- Location: Omaha
- Contact:
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WaitingForSiren
- Category 1
- Posts: 383
- Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2006 12:58 pm
- Location: Minneapolis,Minnesota
- Contact:
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
WaitingForSiren wrote:Now is probably the time to change the name of this thread, or delete it...lol. Looks like saturday is the day to watch now..but even that looks iffy.
LOL. I probably jinxed it... sigh. Leason learned: don't start a thread saying "major tornado outbreak possible" 4-5 days out.
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
The main models have not changed much although they have trended back toward a phase and thus a more potent event.
But the NAM - it has been consistent with the possibility of a major outbreak on Friday-Saturday. Don't know how much it can be trusted since it's one, very sucky model, but its consistence since 0Z yesterday intrigues me.
FWIW:
But the NAM - it has been consistent with the possibility of a major outbreak on Friday-Saturday. Don't know how much it can be trusted since it's one, very sucky model, but its consistence since 0Z yesterday intrigues me.
FWIW:
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WaitingForSiren
- Category 1
- Posts: 383
- Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2006 12:58 pm
- Location: Minneapolis,Minnesota
- Contact:
While I dont expect a tornado outbreak at any time today through saturday..a significant episode appears likely at least saturday. I think SPC is too agressive on the tornado threat today...nocturnal tornadoes are hard to get and...the destabilization zone with all that rain looks very narrow. Id say more like a 5% area...and in central KS ahead of the low.
friday is a little more potent but still not major IMO. low will close off in iowa with another emerging out of Colorado. Looks like there will be significant rain and cloud cover over the warm sector friday morning... and Im not sure if the low level moisture will be good enough. Id say Arkansas is the best bet for severe friday.
saturday the low emerging on Friday should really move northeastward and deepen a bit. I expect a low near 1000 mb in IL by saturday afternoon. Positive tilt of trough nature with a sagging front makes me believe the tornado threat wont be too high, but more of a line segment affair. Will opt to go with a broad 5% tornado threat on saturday, with a localization to 10...perhaps 15% on the day 1. If the cyclone is more intense than i am thinking, or an area of significant low level moisture/destabilization cooincide and develop together, a narrow moderate risk might become necessary. Will monitor this event..especially saturday.
friday is a little more potent but still not major IMO. low will close off in iowa with another emerging out of Colorado. Looks like there will be significant rain and cloud cover over the warm sector friday morning... and Im not sure if the low level moisture will be good enough. Id say Arkansas is the best bet for severe friday.
saturday the low emerging on Friday should really move northeastward and deepen a bit. I expect a low near 1000 mb in IL by saturday afternoon. Positive tilt of trough nature with a sagging front makes me believe the tornado threat wont be too high, but more of a line segment affair. Will opt to go with a broad 5% tornado threat on saturday, with a localization to 10...perhaps 15% on the day 1. If the cyclone is more intense than i am thinking, or an area of significant low level moisture/destabilization cooincide and develop together, a narrow moderate risk might become necessary. Will monitor this event..especially saturday.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 211748
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI/NWRN
INDIANA/IL/MO/NRN AR/NERN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SSWWD INTO NERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE NWD...WHILE SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND LARGER MID-LEVEL VORTEX. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
DUE TO SMALLER-SCALE COMPLEXITY WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF AN
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING NWD BENEATH A VERY STRONG/FAVORABLY-VEERING WIND FIELD
WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD THIS PERIOD.
...SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO NERN TX...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF AR/MO/IL/IA AND VICINITY...IN CONJUCTION WITH
STRONG/SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND BROAD/ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY
SUB-SEVERE...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS AR ON LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MOISTURE.
THOUGH THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION INJECTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE DAY 2 FORECAST...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT N AND E WITH TIME...WHILE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTS NWD ACROSS AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. THOUGH A STRONG MID-LEVEL FEATURE DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT THIS REGION...SMALLER/MORE SUBTLE
FEATURES WILL MOVE NEWD IN SWLY FLOW AROUND SERN FRINGES OF
LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS ERN KS/ERN OK INTO WRN MO AND NWRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LACK OF A PRONOUNCED SMALL-SCALE UPPER FEATURE...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN POCKETS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY. WITH VERY STRONG/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ABOVE VERY STRONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...DEGREE OF SHEAR
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE STRONG ROTATION. ALONG WITH
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCLS
COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY REGARDING
EARLIER CONVECTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO AND INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD AND EWD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH THIS WILL LIKEWISE ALLOW
CONVECTION -- AND SOME SEVERE THREAT -- TO EXPAND NWD AND EWD...MAIN
THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM IL SSWWD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI/NWRN
INDIANA/IL/MO/NRN AR/NERN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SSWWD INTO NERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE NWD...WHILE SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND LARGER MID-LEVEL VORTEX. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
DUE TO SMALLER-SCALE COMPLEXITY WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF AN
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING NWD BENEATH A VERY STRONG/FAVORABLY-VEERING WIND FIELD
WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD THIS PERIOD.
...SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO NERN TX...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF AR/MO/IL/IA AND VICINITY...IN CONJUCTION WITH
STRONG/SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND BROAD/ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY
SUB-SEVERE...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS AR ON LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MOISTURE.
THOUGH THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION INJECTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE DAY 2 FORECAST...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT N AND E WITH TIME...WHILE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTS NWD ACROSS AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. THOUGH A STRONG MID-LEVEL FEATURE DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT THIS REGION...SMALLER/MORE SUBTLE
FEATURES WILL MOVE NEWD IN SWLY FLOW AROUND SERN FRINGES OF
LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS ERN KS/ERN OK INTO WRN MO AND NWRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LACK OF A PRONOUNCED SMALL-SCALE UPPER FEATURE...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN POCKETS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY. WITH VERY STRONG/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ABOVE VERY STRONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...DEGREE OF SHEAR
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE STRONG ROTATION. ALONG WITH
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCLS
COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY REGARDING
EARLIER CONVECTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO AND INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD AND EWD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH THIS WILL LIKEWISE ALLOW
CONVECTION -- AND SOME SEVERE THREAT -- TO EXPAND NWD AND EWD...MAIN
THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM IL SSWWD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Yes indeed...we start early...
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA
KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM RSL - END - SPS. VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR ICT TO 2000 J/KG NEAR DFW. EXPECT
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
EXISTS GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES ACROSS AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...MCCARTHY
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA
KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM RSL - END - SPS. VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR ICT TO 2000 J/KG NEAR DFW. EXPECT
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
EXISTS GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES ACROSS AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...MCCARTHY
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 211932
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
TORNADO WATCH 782 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KSC001-011-015-017-019-021-035-037-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-
105-113-115-125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0782.060921T1935Z-060922T0300Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK
ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE
LINCOLN MARION MCPHERSON
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO RENO
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON
WOODSON
OKC001-017-021-027-035-037-041-047-051-053-061-063-071-073-081-
083-087-091-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-
133-135-143-145-147-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0782.060921T1935Z-060922T0300Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CANADIAN CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRADY
GRANT HASKELL HUGHES
KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TSA...OUN...SGF...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 782 TORNADO KS OK 211935Z - 220300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NE ICT/WICHITA KS/ - 20W MLC/MCALESTER OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /58NE ICT - 17W MLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
LAT...LON 38299491 34869455 34869772 38299823
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 782 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA
KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM RSL - END - SPS. VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR ICT TO 2000 J/KG NEAR DFW. EXPECT
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
EXISTS GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES ACROSS AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...MCCARTHY
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA
KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM RSL - END - SPS. VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR ICT TO 2000 J/KG NEAR DFW. EXPECT
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
EXISTS GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES ACROSS AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...MCCARTHY
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 211932
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
TORNADO WATCH 782 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KSC001-011-015-017-019-021-035-037-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-
105-113-115-125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0782.060921T1935Z-060922T0300Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK
ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE
LINCOLN MARION MCPHERSON
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO RENO
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON
WOODSON
OKC001-017-021-027-035-037-041-047-051-053-061-063-071-073-081-
083-087-091-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-
133-135-143-145-147-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0782.060921T1935Z-060922T0300Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CANADIAN CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRADY
GRANT HASKELL HUGHES
KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TSA...OUN...SGF...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 782 TORNADO KS OK 211935Z - 220300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NE ICT/WICHITA KS/ - 20W MLC/MCALESTER OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /58NE ICT - 17W MLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
LAT...LON 38299491 34869455 34869772 38299823
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 782 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
And another one...
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 255 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DURANT OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 782...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. SFC
DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER REGION AND SFC
PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO N
CENTRAL TX. SPECIAL 19Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWS RUC MODEL IS PRETTY
CLOSE IN ESTIMATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG E OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY ALSO OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES OUT AHEAD OF IT LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 255 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DURANT OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 782...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. SFC
DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER REGION AND SFC
PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO N
CENTRAL TX. SPECIAL 19Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWS RUC MODEL IS PRETTY
CLOSE IN ESTIMATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG E OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY ALSO OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES OUT AHEAD OF IT LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX/SWRN
AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF KS AND
OK AND NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
...ERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER WRN KS ATTM.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN KS INVOF THE
UPPER LOW...ALSO CENTERED OVER WRN KS. MEANWHILE WEAKLY-CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN NARROW WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S
CENTRAL KS SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO E TX.
AS DRYLINE PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM FRONT SHIFTS
EWD/NEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER -- PRIMARILY
FROM NERN TX NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK INTO SERN KS.
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/CELLULAR. GIVEN STRONG SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WHICH INCREASES/VEERS RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT 50 TO 70
KT AT 3 KM ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/PROFILERS...DEVELOPING STORMS
SHOULD VERY RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION. WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS
FAR N AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N CENTRAL TX/S CENTRAL OK...LOW
LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT...SPREADING EWD ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK THIS
EVENING. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE NWD
INTO ERN KS...FAVORABLE SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION.
OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.
WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE WRN HALF OF AR AND SWRN
MO...WITH HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD THE MS RIVER.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2018Z (4:18PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
MDT based on 15-hatched tornado risk.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX/SWRN
AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF KS AND
OK AND NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
...ERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER WRN KS ATTM.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN KS INVOF THE
UPPER LOW...ALSO CENTERED OVER WRN KS. MEANWHILE WEAKLY-CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN NARROW WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S
CENTRAL KS SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO E TX.
AS DRYLINE PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM FRONT SHIFTS
EWD/NEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER -- PRIMARILY
FROM NERN TX NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK INTO SERN KS.
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/CELLULAR. GIVEN STRONG SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WHICH INCREASES/VEERS RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT 50 TO 70
KT AT 3 KM ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/PROFILERS...DEVELOPING STORMS
SHOULD VERY RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION. WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS
FAR N AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N CENTRAL TX/S CENTRAL OK...LOW
LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT...SPREADING EWD ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK THIS
EVENING. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE NWD
INTO ERN KS...FAVORABLE SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION.
OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.
WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE WRN HALF OF AR AND SWRN
MO...WITH HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD THE MS RIVER.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2018Z (4:18PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
MDT based on 15-hatched tornado risk.
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