Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[SouthFloridawx]

I kind of thought the models may trend back to the East on this one.

[Pebbles]

I would agree with your point Pebbles in regards to what you are talking about . But you also have to consider everything as whole. Public perception are brougt into most matters. Especially when it pertains to global warming.

Some people within the scientifc community are trying to link global warming with the tropical intensity level rise (Some are questioning even if there has been a rise)

So this does have some relevance here even if some think that it is meaningless.

I totally understand where your coming from in regards to frustration when analyzing data later. What I would like to hope to believe is those that are planning to use data for research, and TRULY want to take the scientific approach to it, will go and look at the raw evidence/data provided (from sats and flights, and keeping their respective margins of error in mind) rather then the 'public advisories". Most often the data for the public is stated to be "estimates" which, as I'm sure you agree, understandably has a large margin of error. They are made with 'human' interpretation and thus not meant for research purposes.

Even then looking at the raw data we have to understand the constraints and margin of error that must be dealt with. Even though we have taken leaps and bounds in computer technology... honestly we are still in infant stages! We are pushing horizons never dreamed of 20 and even 10 years ago. Sometimes I believe we expect too much from our technical advances for the short time they have been developing.

I think asking the sat and model estimates to be perfect considering what a short time we have been using them in a such a way is maybe asking too much of technology we have acquired so far. There simply hasn't been ENOUGH TIME to do the research to get there yet. But I have no doubt that some point in the future, thanks to you and others doing research even with limited and flawed data, we will get there.

[Thunder44]

I kind of thought the models may trend back to the East on this one.

The 0z CMC shifted a little west of the last run.

[marcane_1973]

Helene sure does not look as good a she did yesterday. Her eye is looking a little ragged too. She should make a come back later today or tonight. I think she has a good chance of being a strong Cat 3 maybe real close to a 4 but I think her making it to a respectable Cat 4 storm is very slim at this point. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn.jpg

[SCMedic]

Helene sure does not look as good a she did yesterday. Her eye is looking a little ragged too. She should make a come back later today or tonight. I think she has a good chance of being a strong Cat 3 maybe real close to a 4 but I think her making it to a respectable Cat 4 storm is very slim at this point. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn.jpg

I hadn't realized there was such thing as an "unrespectable" cat 4 storm.

[Jim Hughes]

I would agree with your point Pebbles in regards to what you are talking about . But you also have to consider everything as whole. Public perception are brougt into most matters. Especially when it pertains to global warming.

Some people within the scientifc community are trying to link global warming with the tropical intensity level rise (Some are questioning even if there has been a rise)

So this does have some relevance here even if some think that it is meaningless.

I totally understand where your coming from in regards to frustration when analyzing data later. What I would like to hope to believe is those that are planning to use data for research, and TRULY want to take the scientific approach to it, will go and look at the raw evidence/data provided (from sats and flights, and keeping their respective margins of error in mind) rather then the 'public advisories". Most often the data for the public is stated to be "estimates" which, as I'm sure you agree, understandably has a large margin of error. They are made with 'human' interpretation and thus not meant for research purposes.

Even then looking at the raw data we have to understand the constraints and margin of error that must be dealt with. Even though we have taken leaps and bounds in computer technology... honestly we are still in infant stages! We are pushing horizons never dreamed of 20 and even 10 years ago. Sometimes I believe we expect too much from our technical advances for the short time they have been developing.

I think asking the sat and model estimates to be perfect considering what a short time we have been using them in a such a way is maybe asking too much of technology we have acquired so far. There simply hasn't been ENOUGH TIME to do the research to get there yet. But I have no doubt that some point in the future, thanks to you and others doing research even with limited and flawed data, we will get there.

Your 100 % correct as far as research goes but I am mainly talking about GW here and how the public views it in relation to these storms.

This is my point here about these higher calls. The same could be said if the exact opposite was occurring. (Which does not and the law of averages say it should. )

[cycloneye]

19/1145 UTC 24.5N 52.5W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean


No change in intensity according to SSD dvorak sat estimates.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060919 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060919 1200 060920 0000 060920 1200 060921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.5N 52.5W 25.2N 54.0W 26.3N 55.3W 28.1N 56.4W
BAMM 24.5N 52.5W 25.1N 54.1W 26.0N 55.6W 27.7N 56.8W
A98E 24.5N 52.5W 25.2N 53.9W 26.5N 55.3W 28.6N 56.2W
LBAR 24.5N 52.5W 25.4N 53.9W 26.4N 55.4W 28.1N 56.8W
SHIP 100KTS 101KTS 100KTS 103KTS
DSHP 100KTS 101KTS 100KTS 103KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060921 1200 060922 1200 060923 1200 060924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.3N 57.3W 36.0N 55.4W 41.0N 46.1W 46.3N 26.3W
BAMM 29.8N 57.5W 35.1N 55.0W 39.2N 45.5W 42.5N 27.9W
A98E 31.2N 56.4W 38.7N 52.8W 45.9N 41.9W 53.4N 30.8W
LBAR 30.0N 57.2W 36.8N 55.0W 44.5N 42.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 102KTS 97KTS 83KTS 62KTS
DSHP 102KTS 97KTS 83KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.5N LONCUR = 52.5W DIRCUR = 294DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.1N LONM12 = 51.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.9N LONM24 = 49.8W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 125NM RD34NW = 175NM

Intensity unchanged,100kts.

[Nimbus]

Nice tightly clustered models, only question is will she reach cat 4 before the trough shear starts?

[craptacular]

I wonder what happened to the NHC. The website is in backup mode and the 11AM EDT Helene advisories were issued by the HPC.

[x-y-no]

I wonder what happened to the NHC. The website is in backup mode and the 11AM EDT Helene advisories were issued by the HPC.

I think they're just doing one of their standard practice drills for the process of handing over to HPC should NHC/TPC go down.

[hial2]

I know it's temporary, but Helene is actually moving S/W at this time, according to the NHC forecast points...Oh. those models....

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what happened to the NHC. The website is in backup mode and the 11AM EDT Helene advisories were issued by the HPC.

I think they're just doing one of their standard practice drills for the process of handing over to HPC should NHC/TPC go down.

I know it is somewhat off-topic, but what happens if BOTH the HPC and NHC go down?

[jusforsean]

I wonder what happened to the NHC. The website is in backup mode and the 11AM EDT Helene advisories were issued by the HPC.

I think they're just doing one of their standard practice drills for the process of handing over to HPC should NHC/TPC go down.

I know it is somewhat off-topic, but what happens if BOTH the HPC and NHC go down?

Storm2k takes over

[CronkPSU]

I wonder what happened to the NHC. The website is in backup mode and the 11AM EDT Helene advisories were issued by the HPC.

I think they're just doing one of their standard practice drills for the process of handing over to HPC should NHC/TPC go down.

I know it is somewhat off-topic, but what happens if BOTH the HPC and NHC go down?

Storm2k takes over

elimination chamber death match between derek, JB, steve lyons, brick tamland and storm tracker jim cantore

[storms in NC]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 190228
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HELENE IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED TO THE
NORTH...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS
BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CENTRAL CONVECTION
IS COOLING AND THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS RATHER SYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM
ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 100 KT AT THIS TIME.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INDEED...GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF
THE INNER CORE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...
AND HELENE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.

HELENE IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...300/7. A MORE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL EVEN DEPICTS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN 12 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...A VERY
LARGE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN 3 TO 5
DAYS HELENE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERNPART OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE
GFDL...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 24.2N 51.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 24.6N 52.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 54.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 25.4N 55.9W 110 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 26.7N 57.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 31.0N 58.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.5N 56.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 39.0N 51.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


I like the wording here "Should". But it can't go much far west because of the highs. the onle thing "IF" it don't get picked up it would just stall?

[gatorcane]

Helene continues to move W to WSW...interesting...some ridge that is pushing it right now.

[Stratosphere747]

The GFDL showed a WSW motion and the NHC even mentioned it, so the movement is not all that surprising.

[gatorcane]

The GFDL showed a WSW motion and the NHC even mentioned it, so the movement is not all that surprising.

Actually I don't see where they mention it..

[Stratosphere747]

The GFDL showed a WSW motion and the NHC even mentioned it, so the movement is not all that surprising.

Actually I don't see where they mention it..

HELENE IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...300/7. A MORE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL EVEN DEPICTS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN 12 HOURS OR SO.

Per the 11pm disco by Pasch....