Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[storms in NC]

I know the that it is on track. But I have a question? With a large hurricane can it make it own path? I know the NHC is right on with so far but I thought I would ask.

[hial2]

Well, the NHC took off their TFPs..Expecting new ones soon.this way, they're always right on!

[Stratosphere747]

The GFDL showed a WSW motion and the NHC even mentioned it, so the movement is not all that surprising.

Actually I don't see where they mention it..

It was also mentioned in the 5am disco as well as the 11pm.

THE GFDL MODEL
ACTUALLY FORECASTS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION TODAY.

Per BROWN/STEWART.

[storms in NC]

[img=http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/1792/tanal115acf21qd4.th.jpg]

See all thoes highs in front of helene? well the only way she can go is south now then north later if the front picks he up. From the update it said the south part Should pick her up

[jusforsean]

I am curious to see the models in 3 days out, not that they will change but to see if they shift at all because I always hear about front "fizziling out" and patterns changing, always wondered how that worked. If a front is suppose to be strong and doesnt make it all the way does that change things?

[gatorcane]

latest frames show even more of a WSW wobble....just food for thought.

[CrazyC83]

959mb with a 69mph surface winds = 953mb?

[cycloneye]

Vortex Message is at 958 mbs,meaning NOAA plane found a little bit stronger hurricane than the 11 AM 960mb.

[Sanibel]

The slightly WSW drift is just an eddy in front of the massive CONUS front.

[Derek Ortt]

it is obvious from the recon data the last 2 days that Helene is nowhere near cat 3 intensity and probably has not been.

it is going through an EWRC now, so don't expect uch increse in the winds for a few hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

what are the highest current recon wind speeds?

[craptacular]

what are the highest current recon wind speeds?

Highest I've seen are 98 kts (113 mph) at flight-level and an SFMR surface estimate of 76 kts (88 mph).

edit: A dropsonde also found an 88mph surface wind in the eyewall.

[craptacular]

New dropsonde found 106 mph at the surface in northern eyewall.

[Jim Hughes]

it is obvious from the recon data the last 2 days that Helene is nowhere near cat 3 intensity and probably has not been.

it is going through an EWRC now, so don't expect uch increse in the winds for a few hours.

I am asking you a serious question. Why should we believe Gordon's estimated strength during the past 2-3 days then ?

I guess the winds seen at the Azores will tell us a little bit.

[cycloneye]

A second Vortex message found a drop of 2 more Mbs,956.From the 11 AM Advisory estimated pressure of 960 mbs it has dropped four.

[Derek Ortt]

Gordon's true intensity is unknown... all we have are the sat estimates

However, I have no doubt that it is a cane now with its very rapid forward speed

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191522
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1130 AM EDT TUE SEPT 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

[b]THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
MAJOR HURRICANE HELENE[/b]...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA... AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES
ON HURRICANE GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES WEST OF LAJES AIR
FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


huh????

[Damar91]

Not that it matters much, but Helene is on track to miss the NHC's next forecast point to the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060919 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060919 1800 060920 0600 060920 1800 060921 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 53.7W 25.2N 54.9W 26.9N 55.9W 29.1N 56.3W
BAMM 24.4N 53.7W 24.9N 55.0W 26.2N 56.1W 28.1N 56.5W
A98E 24.4N 53.7W 24.8N 55.5W 25.7N 57.0W 27.0N 57.8W
LBAR 24.4N 53.7W 24.9N 55.2W 26.1N 56.8W 27.9N 57.8W
SHIP 95KTS 94KTS 96KTS 98KTS
DSHP 95KTS 94KTS 96KTS 98KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060921 1800 060922 1800 060923 1800 060924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 55.6W 37.6N 50.4W 43.2N 38.9W 46.2N 23.5W
BAMM 30.7N 55.7W 36.4N 50.1W 40.2N 38.7W 42.0N 22.9W
A98E 28.0N 56.8W 30.3N 53.8W 31.7N 51.4W 33.1N 44.1W
LBAR 29.8N 58.4W 36.2N 55.3W 42.9N 42.6W 49.2N 28.6W
SHIP 98KTS 95KTS 81KTS 69KTS
DSHP 98KTS 95KTS 81KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 53.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.3N LONM12 = 51.8W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 956MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 190NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 115NM RD34NW = 165NM

18:00z Models have intensity lower than 100kts.They start at 95kts.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191522
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1130 AM EDT TUE SEPT 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

[b]THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
MAJOR HURRICANE HELENE[/b]...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA... AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES
ON HURRICANE GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES WEST OF LAJES AIR
FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


huh????

The NHC site is in backup mode this afternoon. I don't know if that has anything to do with HPC taking over TPC products.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/