Trough Not As Strong - early end to Season Not Likely

[gatorcane]

The type of front we are having is very similar to one you would see at the end of October that typically cleans out the tropics.

Possible record lows are expected in South Florida with lows in the 60s and 50s farther up the state.

Could this be a sign the season will be over early?

[HURAKAN]

I still fear a storm could from in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico, then Florida could be a target.

[hurricanetrack]

I suppose it could but then again, the GFS continues to show development out in the Atlantic though nothing ever gets past 60w. So maybe the season is already over as far as landfall worries. Hard to tell.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking at the upper-air synoptics, this front may not have much cooler mid-level air as expected as it reaches southern Florida. Also, last year - as well as numerous other years - featured weak to moderate surface fronts draped across southern Florida. I doubt this would help to shut down the year, if it even contributes at all.

If you're looking for something to slow down or weaken late-season activity, monitor the developing El Nino situation and Pacific subsurface ENSO processes, as well as current Pacific SSTs and related ENSO factors.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami:

IN THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS SW WINDS IMPORT
DEEP MOISTURE. LITTLE FORCING EXCEPT FROM AFTERNOON HEATING AND A PRE
-FRONTAL TROUGH THOUGH NO LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AS FLOW PARALLEL
TO PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ANY E COAST SEA BREEZE...IF IT DEVELOPS AT
ALL...WOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST ALONG THE COAST. A MINIMAL BREAK
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SOME STABILIZATION OVER LAND BUT WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING S FLA WED MORNING ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL
END LATE AFTERNOON NW CWA AND EXTREME SE CWA WED EVE. BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRIER AND COOLER THU WITH MAX TEMPS MID TO UPPER 80S
MOST AREAS. LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THU MORN IN
MANY LOCALES FALLING TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR LESS OF NEARING LOW
MINIMUM RECORDS. A FEW INTERIOR AREAS POSSIBLY MAY SET LOW RECORDS
FOR THE DATE. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL WED AFTERNOON.

[MiamiensisWx]

NWS Miami:

IN THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS SW WINDS IMPORT
DEEP MOISTURE. LITTLE FORCING EXCEPT FROM AFTERNOON HEATING AND A PRE
-FRONTAL TROUGH THOUGH NO LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AS FLOW PARALLEL
TO PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ANY E COAST SEA BREEZE...IF IT DEVELOPS AT
ALL...WOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST ALONG THE COAST. A MINIMAL BREAK
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SOME STABILIZATION OVER LAND BUT WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING S FLA WED MORNING ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL
END LATE AFTERNOON NW CWA AND EXTREME SE CWA WED EVE. BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRIER AND COOLER THU WITH MAX TEMPS MID TO UPPER 80S
MOST AREAS. LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THU MORN IN
MANY LOCALES FALLING TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR LESS OF NEARING LOW
MINIMUM RECORDS. A FEW INTERIOR AREAS POSSIBLY MAY SET LOW RECORDS
FOR THE DATE. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL WED AFTERNOON.

Looking at the upper-air synoptics, the degree of cooler overnight lows indicated by the Miami NWS from this entering surface front may be not as low as expected (it may be one to three degrees higher), though it may be close to the lows indicated. Look for a quick rebound of temperatures as quite probable after the weak to moderate surface front may stall just south of the tip of southern Florida.

Regardless, this will be a fairly significant early frontal passage.

[Frank2]

The old-timers always said that, though, I recall some years when the season kept going, even after a significant cold front passage or two.

Still, it does seem that Fall is making it's prescence felt very early this year (per what people in Chicago said to TWC yesterday) - it really seems that last years late October through December hurricane season will likely be very brief, if at all...

Frank

P.S. Also, per what Steve Lyons said last evening - another TD south of Hawaii (as of yesterday) is a clear sign of an El Nino in progress...

[hial2]

According to metereologist D Ortt, if this scenario were to occur, it would influence Helene's direction..I think Bermuda should begin to closely monitor this storm..if they haven't begun to do so...

[GrimReaper]

50's -60's HERE in FL???????? where did I miss that. I can't wait....yipee!!!!!!! woo hoo... the horses are gonna be wild!!!

[gatorcane]

50's -60's HERE in FL???????? where did I miss that. I can't wait....yipee!!!!!!! woo hoo... the horses are gonna be wild!!!

St Augustine Forecast:

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 83. Northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. North wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Northeast wind between 8 and 10 mph.

[MiamiensisWx]

The surface front, as indicated, has a decent signature and forcing mechanism mid-level ridging building in behind it; however, other surrounding synoptics, as indicated here, such as the movement of the ULL near the Great Lakes region in south-central to southeast Canada, may allow the southern portion of the surface front entering Florida to cut off and stall as it moves into southern Florida, potentially stalling just past the southern tip, especially due to the influence of the ULL off the Carolinas moving slowly before being absorbed by the mid-level troughing. This would bring in the expected lows and slightly cooler highs into northern and central to south-central Florida, but not as much into southern Florida, where temperatures may warm up more quickly after the passage due to this. If you want cooler temperatures that may be a bit more sustained, the best bet with this may be northern and central Florida through the coming few days, not southern Florida.

As evidenced in that loop, the ULL influence off the Carolinas, along with the mid-level trough about to enter the Eastern Seaboard, should aid in reducing Helene's risk to the U.S., but potentially allow a threat via close call to Bermuda.

EDIT - By "ULL influence of the Carolinas", I'm referring to 95L (mistakenly identified as an ULL). Just a brain freeze when in the typing (and thinking) process!

[wxman57]

That front just means that the pattern is what we would expect by late September. Typically, the first significant cold front moves out across the Gulf during the 3rd or 4th week of September. Doesn't mean the season is over by any means, just that we're shifting to a new pattern.

I made a climo map of every named storm passing within 200nm of 25N/83W in Oct/Nov from 1851-2005. What I was trying to show is that Florida's season is by no means over after the first front passes. In fact, the same front that you propose may shut down the Gulf may be the focal point for TC development (and a FL threat) once it stalls in the NW Caribbean.

[O Town]

Wow, looks like Oct. and Nov. have FL hit written all over it, IF something were to develope.

[Frank2]

There have been a few (dozen) that have passed this way...

[Derek Ortt]

No

Miami is often hit AFTER the first major cold front

[Evil Jeremy]

Must i mention that Wilma came in mid-october, and had many clod fronts before and after it!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Must i mention that Wilma came in mid-october, and had many clod fronts before and after it!

Wilma was a major cold front in herself!!!

[LaBreeze]

Don't forget a few years ago, we had Lili making her way across the GOM when a front picked her up.

[Scorpion]

How could anyone say the season is over after the first front? In fact, the chances inrease because that means its more likely we will get hit from the SW. It's alot easier for a cane to hit a trough and be steered towards Florida than a hurricane to traverse the Atlantic and not get picked up.

[westmoon]

I think the proper term here would be "-removed-". Not that I have anything against this season ending asap, just maybe I will be able to find an insurance company to write my homeowners insurance again