Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Evil Jeremy]

why is it in Backup mode? i saw that, too!

[AJC3]

huh????

Mike Musher, who did the 11AM package, is a forecaster at HPC. I suspect there was some sort of a test of HPC's backup capability to TPC today.

[TheEuropean]

Back to Helene: NRL now with 90kts, Cat.2

[wxman57]

Not that it matters much, but Helene is on track to miss the NHC's next forecast point to the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

Yes, Helene's a bit south of the NHC track, but she's running out of ridge. Should begin turning north pretty soon.

[Damar91]

Not that it matters much, but Helene is on track to miss the NHC's next forecast point to the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

Yes, Helene's a bit south of the NHC track, but she's running out of ridge. Should begin turning north pretty soon.

True. Let her go, I'm ready for our "cold front". Actually, even mid-80's would be a cool down right now!

[Evil Jeremy]

well, do you think that she will be weaker at the 5:00PM EDT advisory?

[Damar91]

Just imagine if that trough wan't there and instead there was a big ridge of high pressure. We are very blessed that isn't the case here!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg

[TheEuropean]

well, do you think that she will be weaker at the 5:00PM EDT advisory?

Yes, I think so.

[storms in NC]

From what I see and only IMO

The front is not what is going to turn Helene. 95L is what is going to turn her.
From the loop below you can see the front is splitting to me. Some of the front is going south and the other is going Northeast. What do you all think?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

[wxman57]

well, do you think that she will be weaker at the 5:00PM EDT advisory?

18Z models initialized at 95kts/110 mph. That's likely what the NHC will use at 4pm CDT.

[jusforsean]

From what I see and only IMO

The front is not what is going to turn Helene. 95L is what is going to turn her.
From the loop below you can see the front is splitting to me. Some of the front is going south and the other is going Northeast. What do you all think?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

forgive me for a stupid question but is that loop current as in what is happening right now or is it what will happen?? I do see it splitting at the end. Is that what was suppose to happen> and where does 95I come into play ??

[hial2]

From what I see and only IMO

The front is not what is going to turn Helene. 95L is what is going to turn her.
From the loop below you can see the front is splitting to me. Some of the front is going south and the other is going Northeast. What do you all think?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

It was predicted a couple of days ago...I THINK it was the UKMET, who created a divergence in the models...and a storm of activity here

[AJC3]

From what I see and only IMO

The front is not what is going to turn Helene. 95L is what is going to turn her.
From the loop below you can see the front is splitting to me. Some of the front is going south and the other is going Northeast. What do you all think?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

It's rather simplistic and really inaccurate to say surface cold "fronts" steer a TC. A front is nothing more than a boundary between two air masses. Not all fronts are created equal - the mid and upper level features associated with them can vary greatly.

TC's are steered my the mean layer flow. Hence, what you need to do is look at analyses and forecast charts from H85 on up to get the total picture in 3D of the mean steering layer flow. Take note of the large trough about to move into the western Atlantic. THAT is what is going to turn Helene northwest, then north and eventually northeastward.

Chris (wxman57) often posts some excellent examples of the mean layer steering wind analyses and forecasts.

[storms in NC]

that is right now you can go to this site and you can see. if you have dail up it will take a few min to down load.

As I said Only IMO

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[Frank2]

NHC's in backup mode likely due to routine el tech work, normally done during the weekdays, when that staff is on duty...

[storms in NC]

Chris (wxman57) often posts some excellent examples of the mean layer steering wind analyses and forecasts.

I know he does but I havn't seen any. It would be nice to see one. I know it is going to turn. There's highs up and down the east coast down pass Fla. The only way it can go is north Or south( but not). I have no troubles with NHC track.. I was thinking it would have been 95L that would make her turn. Thank you for your post it helped.

[wxman57]

wxman57 often posts some excellent examples of the mean layer steering wind analyses and forecasts.

I know he does but I havn't seen any. It would be nice to see one. I know it is going to turn. There's highs up and down the east coast down pass Fla. The only way it can go is north Or south( but not). I have no troubles with NHC track.. I was thinking it would have been 95L that would make her turn. Thank you for your post it helped.

How about these? Doesn't look like Helene can go west much longer. Time for the turn to start!

21Z today:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene33.gif

21Z Wednesday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene34.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

On this surface map, note the low system (95L) off the Carolinas, along with the surface front just behind the middle to upper-level trough about to exit the eastern United States coastline based on viewing water vapor. Note the upper-level trough, the interaction between the ULT and 95L, and the invisible surface front behind the ULT.

The interaction between 95L and the ULT, along with the movement and development of 95L, may make a big difference in Helene's movement, pace, and track within the next 36 to 48 hours. Currently, 95L is located under very weak - and nearly transparent now - surface ridging, which may erode in advance of the ULT. This, along with 95L's influence, strongly decreases the chance of Helene impacting the Eastern Seaboard, as the movement of 95L may help to block Helene and additionally open up a mid-level weakness in the advance of the ULT that may gradually sweep Helene out.

[Noah]

Not that it matters much, but Helene is on track to miss the NHC's next forecast point to the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

Yes, Helene's a bit south of the NHC track, but she's running out of ridge. Should begin turning north pretty soon.

True. Let her go, I'm ready for our "cold front". Actually, even mid-80's would be a cool down right now!

Ditto that!! its hotter than you know what...come on winter and all the fun holidays!!!!!!!!! Yippy

[recmod]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KTS

That is from the 5pm NHC discussion. There is absolutely NO WAY they can say this storm is moving WNW at 300 degrees. A simple look at the visible and IR loops shows a due west motion for many hours now. Both the 11am and 5PM advisories have Helene at 24.6 N.

While I am certainly not predicting any drastic altering of the future track, I think the NHC should call the motion as it currently stands. This storm is definitely moving south of the forecast points and has not YET begun any Northward recurvature.

--Lou