Tropical Storm Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[storms in NC]

I know that is what I had seen those highs Helene will not go to. And I see on the last map up is the only way. I thought there could be a small chance of going south. But with 2 highs below don't see Her going beween them.LOL

Thank you for the maps

[storms in NC]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KTS

That is from the 5pm NHC discussion. There is absolutely NO WAY they can say this storm is moving WNW at 300 degrees. A simple look at the visible and IR loops shows a due west motion for many hours now. Both the 11am and 5PM advisories have Helene at 24.6 N.

While I am certainly not predicting any drastic altering of the future track, I think the NHC should call the motion as it currently stands. This storm is definitely moving south of the forecast points and has not YET begun any Northward recurvature.

--Lou

They go on a Avg. not what it is going at the time of update.

[Evil Jeremy]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KTS

That is from the 5pm NHC discussion. There is absolutely NO WAY they can say this storm is moving WNW at 300 degrees. A simple look at the visible and IR loops shows a due west motion for many hours now. Both the 11am and 5PM advisories have Helene at 24.6 N.

While I am certainly not predicting any drastic altering of the future track, I think the NHC should call the motion as it currently stands. This storm is definitely moving south of the forecast points and has not YET begun any Northward recurvature.

--Lou

They go on a Avg. not what it is going at the time of update.

I was just about to point that out! it could just be the HPC and their thinking. remember, this advisory was not written by the NHC!

[Derek Ortt]

HPC used the wrong reduction factor

90% is not used at 850mb, that is used at 700mb. The 80% rule at 850mb better matches the SFMR data

[craptacular]

HPC used the wrong reduction factor

90% is not used at 850mb, that is used at 700mb. The 80% rule at 850mb better matches the SFMR data

Good point. They didn't mention it in the discussion, but I wonder if one of the reasons they kept it that high is that there was one dropsonde that found a 106 mph surface wind in the north eyewall.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

huh????

Mike Musher, who did the 11AM package, is a forecaster at HPC. I suspect there was some sort of a test of HPC's backup capability to TPC today.

They are upgrading some computer software.

[Stormavoider]

Shouldn't she have her right turn signal on now?

[Emmett_Brown]

Shouldn't she have her right turn signal on now?

Yes, any time now, we should start seeing the turn to the NW, then N. Pretty much due W at the moment. The trough heading her way is very deep, but it hasnt reached her quite yet:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Earlier i was wondering about a stall, which might make her miss the trough, but she is likely too far N for that to occur. So now, it is just a matter of time before she heads out.

[Zardoz]

Pretty much due W at the moment...

Yep:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Seems like Bermuda might be in for it.

[storm4u]

i say within 6 hours she starts to really make a turn to the north if not bermuda may have something to deal with but unlikely at this point!!

[superfly]

Triple concentric eyewalls ala Katrina at landfall

[marcane_1973]

Her inner core looks ragged again this morning. Looks like Helene has hit her peak and is starting the northern turn taking her out to sea. Gordon was such a better looking Hurricane at his peak with a perfect cleared out eye and that buzzsaw look. Farewell Helene and good riddance. You sure were a bore to look at and plot. Now lets see if we can get a more interesting storm closer to home in the next couple of weeks.

[Thunder44]

As of the 5am Advisory, she is now moving NW at 9mph.

[Jim Cantore]

Looks like an ERC going on here, at least from looking at what superfly posted

[Pebbles]

Farewell Helene and good riddance. You sure were a bore to look at and plot. Now lets see if we can get a more interesting storm closer to home in the next couple of weeks.

Don't listen to Marcane, Helene! I found you more then interesting enough to follow and plot. The "Great GFS vs GFDL" model fight will not soon be forgotten!

[Jim Cantore]

I wouldn't count Helene out yet, ERC's can make Hurricanes even more unpredictible, remember Katrina?

[cpdaman]

it appears that the first trof is weakening and lifting out (last nite u could see this troff represented as far south as 25n 70w to 30n 65 w on wv) and that as helene started her nw motion around 5am this morning it may be bending back to the wnw now (as that first troff's southern extent is weakening) which it may due for a good part of TOday, then the permanent turn northwest and then north and northeast should happen tonite as that troff clearing the east coast this morning is a monster

[storms in NC]

Her inner core looks ragged again this morning. Looks like Helene has hit her peak and is starting the northern turn taking her out to sea. Gordon was such a better looking Hurricane at his peak with a perfect cleared out eye and that buzzsaw look. Farewell Helene and good riddance. You sure were a bore to look at and plot. Now lets see if we can get a more interesting storm closer to home in the next couple of weeks.

Why on earth would you wish a Hurricane to come to the US. Just with TSE We had flooded homes. I had water around my house for 2 days a foot deep and went down to the back field and stayed there and didn't go back in it's banks till last Friday. Now we have mosquito that can carry the west Nile virus

The people that did lose there homes have to stay somewhere else till there home is dry and then they can rebuild. But they have to do it though their Ins if they had flood ins if not they are out of luck. FEMA did not call it here Because it was not over the $ amount they set. And that was just a TS.

I am glad to watch a fish storm and not have to worry about any happening here or any where We do not need any more for the US or Islands. WE have had enough. Just enjoy the fish storms

Off soap Box now

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006

...HELENE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAKING HELENE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[AnnularCane]

What happened to her pretty eye?