Tropical Depression 2-C in WPAC
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- cycloneye
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WTPA43 PHFO 200250
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006
TWO-C CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS EFFORT TO SPIN UP AND ATTEMPTS AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT RAINBANDS AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAVE THUS FAR FAILED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA AND JTWC ARE AT T1.5 OR 25 KT. SAB IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE HIGHER END AT T2.5. WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR GOVERNING THE TRACK OF TWO-C AND SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEYOND DAY 2 AND WILL SLOW DOWN TWO-C A BIT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN DYNAMIC MODEL OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND NOGAPS CLUSTERED TOGETHER DOWN THE CENTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER DAY 2 WHICH PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DATELINE BY DAY 5. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AWAY FROM MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR TWO-C REMAINS LOW AND THE SST IS AT A MORE THAN ADEQUATE 28.6C. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THERE ARE NO MAJOR IMPEDIMENTS TO INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...TWO-C CONTINUES TO FAIL AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ALL THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS NOW KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHILE THE GFS KILLS TWO-C BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST KNOCKS THE MAX INTENSITY DOWN A BIT TO HAVE TWO-C BARELY REACH HURRICANE STATUS AT DAY 4. ADMITTEDLY...THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE CURRENT PICTURE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 10.6N 161.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 163.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 11.7N 166.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.4N 171.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.1N 174.9W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 14.5N 178.1W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 179.0E 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006
TWO-C CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS EFFORT TO SPIN UP AND ATTEMPTS AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT RAINBANDS AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAVE THUS FAR FAILED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA AND JTWC ARE AT T1.5 OR 25 KT. SAB IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE HIGHER END AT T2.5. WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR GOVERNING THE TRACK OF TWO-C AND SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEYOND DAY 2 AND WILL SLOW DOWN TWO-C A BIT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN DYNAMIC MODEL OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND NOGAPS CLUSTERED TOGETHER DOWN THE CENTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER DAY 2 WHICH PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DATELINE BY DAY 5. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AWAY FROM MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR TWO-C REMAINS LOW AND THE SST IS AT A MORE THAN ADEQUATE 28.6C. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THERE ARE NO MAJOR IMPEDIMENTS TO INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...TWO-C CONTINUES TO FAIL AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ALL THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS NOW KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHILE THE GFS KILLS TWO-C BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST KNOCKS THE MAX INTENSITY DOWN A BIT TO HAVE TWO-C BARELY REACH HURRICANE STATUS AT DAY 4. ADMITTEDLY...THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE CURRENT PICTURE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 10.6N 161.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 163.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 11.7N 166.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.4N 171.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.1N 174.9W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 14.5N 178.1W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 179.0E 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
cycloneye wrote:Here they are.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (CP022006) ON 20060920 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060920 0000 060920 1200 060921 0000 060921 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.4N 161.2W 11.0N 163.9W 11.8N 166.2W 12.7N 168.0W
BAMM 10.4N 161.2W 11.2N 164.0W 11.9N 166.6W 12.7N 168.8W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060922 0000 060923 0000 060924 0000 060925 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 169.4W 14.4N 171.5W 14.8N 172.2W 16.4N 171.2W
BAMM 13.5N 170.6W 14.1N 173.6W 13.9N 176.2W 14.0N 178.1W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 57KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 161.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 158.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 156.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 70NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Thanks, but I was requesting a link for the site where these initialization runs are posted/issued. Can the link to the site for these runs be posted? I'm NOT referring to the graphical runs, but the initializations that are posted (like you just demonstrated above).
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
cycloneye wrote:http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/?C=M;O=D
Models text link.
That's what I was referring to. Thanks!
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- WindRunner
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
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WTPA43 PHFO 200856
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO HAVE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER VERY PRECISELY. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 EXCEPT 2.0 FROM SAB AND THE SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND. TWO-C WAS ON THE WEST EDGE OF A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 30 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND TWO-C REMAINS FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT. TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASED THE FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY TO KEEP IT IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR FROM ANY INHABITED ISLANDS.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM ADEQUATELY WARM...AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...AND SHEAR IS NIL...BUT TWO-C HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPING VERY RAPIDLY. WITHOUT ANY MORE CONVINCING EVIDENCE FOR MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 10.9N 163.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.6N 165.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 12.3N 167.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 170.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 13.8N 172.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 14.2N 176.2W 50 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 14.4N 179.3W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 14.8N 177.5E 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO HAVE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER VERY PRECISELY. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 EXCEPT 2.0 FROM SAB AND THE SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND. TWO-C WAS ON THE WEST EDGE OF A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 30 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND TWO-C REMAINS FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT. TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASED THE FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY TO KEEP IT IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR FROM ANY INHABITED ISLANDS.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM ADEQUATELY WARM...AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...AND SHEAR IS NIL...BUT TWO-C HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPING VERY RAPIDLY. WITHOUT ANY MORE CONVINCING EVIDENCE FOR MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 10.9N 163.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.6N 165.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 12.3N 167.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 170.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 13.8N 172.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 14.2N 176.2W 50 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 14.4N 179.3W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 14.8N 177.5E 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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No longer expected to develop...
000
WTPA33 PHFO 201430
TCPCP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.3 WEST OR ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...11.2 N...164.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
-----------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPA43 PHFO 201442
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.0...FROM JTWC...TO 2.5 FROM SAB AND THE SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND. WE HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 25 KT.
THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE. A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N 145W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING TO 22N 180. TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST TRACK UNCHANGED...RUNNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR FROM ANY INHABITED ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS STILL SHOW TWO-C STRENGTHENING...IT HAS BECOME HARD TO IGNORE AN OBVIOUS WEAKENING TREND. FEW TROPICAL CYLONES BECOME AS WEAK AS TWO-C AND THEN DEVELOP INTO STRONG SYSTEMS. DESPITE ANALYSES AND FORECASTS OF VERY WEAK SHEAR...THERE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH SHEAR TO PUSH DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF TWO-C. UNLESS SOMETHING HAPPENS TO REVERSE THIS TREND... TWO-C WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 11.2N 164.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.8N 166.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 12.6N 168.8W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 171.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/1200Z 13.7N 173.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 23/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
000
WTPA33 PHFO 201430
TCPCP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.3 WEST OR ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...11.2 N...164.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
-----------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPA43 PHFO 201442
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.0...FROM JTWC...TO 2.5 FROM SAB AND THE SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND. WE HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 25 KT.
THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE. A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N 145W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING TO 22N 180. TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST TRACK UNCHANGED...RUNNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR FROM ANY INHABITED ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS STILL SHOW TWO-C STRENGTHENING...IT HAS BECOME HARD TO IGNORE AN OBVIOUS WEAKENING TREND. FEW TROPICAL CYLONES BECOME AS WEAK AS TWO-C AND THEN DEVELOP INTO STRONG SYSTEMS. DESPITE ANALYSES AND FORECASTS OF VERY WEAK SHEAR...THERE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH SHEAR TO PUSH DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF TWO-C. UNLESS SOMETHING HAPPENS TO REVERSE THIS TREND... TWO-C WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 11.2N 164.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.8N 166.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 12.6N 168.8W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 171.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/1200Z 13.7N 173.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 23/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
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- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Yep . . . final advisory . . .
WTPA43 PHFO 202045
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS NEVER ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE MAKE IT OR BREAK IT POINT IT REACHED LATE YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ HAD WANED YESTERDAY INTO LAST EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH TWO-C FADED QUICKER. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A MINIMAL CIRCULATION WITH A FEW WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MORNINGS PASS AROUND 17Z SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN TROUGH. EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY LOOPS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THUS BY DEFINITION TWO-C IS NO LONGER A LOW OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLARE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMNANTS OF TWO-C GET PUSHED WESTWARD IN THE TRADE FLOW. WITH WARM SSTS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT... THERE IS STILL SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TWO-C COULD REGENERATE. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FILLING IN TO THE SOUTH OF TWO-C...THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST BARELY ABOVE ZERO. IN ADDITION 06Z GFDL RUN HAS REALLY BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEPS IT REAL WEAK THRU DAY 5. SHIPS STILL BRINGS IT UP IN INTENSITY BUT THIS IS SOLELY BASED ON SST POTENTIAL. ALL OTHER INPUTS TO THAT BASICALLY SAY STEADY STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM HOWEVER.
THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON TWO-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TWO-C WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN HISTORY WITH MANY OTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT FELL SHORT OF A PROMISING FUTURE. PROOF THAT DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY POWERFUL NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...IT TAKES A VERY DELICATE BALANCE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE ONE ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 11.3N 165.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/0600Z 11.6N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 169.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER NASH
WTPA43 PHFO 202045
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS NEVER ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE MAKE IT OR BREAK IT POINT IT REACHED LATE YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ HAD WANED YESTERDAY INTO LAST EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH TWO-C FADED QUICKER. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A MINIMAL CIRCULATION WITH A FEW WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MORNINGS PASS AROUND 17Z SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN TROUGH. EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY LOOPS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THUS BY DEFINITION TWO-C IS NO LONGER A LOW OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLARE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMNANTS OF TWO-C GET PUSHED WESTWARD IN THE TRADE FLOW. WITH WARM SSTS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT... THERE IS STILL SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TWO-C COULD REGENERATE. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FILLING IN TO THE SOUTH OF TWO-C...THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST BARELY ABOVE ZERO. IN ADDITION 06Z GFDL RUN HAS REALLY BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEPS IT REAL WEAK THRU DAY 5. SHIPS STILL BRINGS IT UP IN INTENSITY BUT THIS IS SOLELY BASED ON SST POTENTIAL. ALL OTHER INPUTS TO THAT BASICALLY SAY STEADY STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM HOWEVER.
THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON TWO-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TWO-C WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN HISTORY WITH MANY OTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT FELL SHORT OF A PROMISING FUTURE. PROOF THAT DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY POWERFUL NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...IT TAKES A VERY DELICATE BALANCE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE ONE ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 11.3N 165.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/0600Z 11.6N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 169.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER NASH
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146126
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
WTPA43 PHFO 202045
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS NEVER ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE MAKE IT OR BREAK IT POINT IT REACHED LATE YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ HAD WANED YESTERDAY INTO LAST EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH TWO-C FADED QUICKER. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A MINIMAL CIRCULATION WITH A FEW WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MORNINGS PASS AROUND 17Z SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN TROUGH. EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY LOOPS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THUS BY DEFINITION TWO-C IS NO LONGER A LOW OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLARE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMNANTS OF TWO-C GET PUSHED WESTWARD IN THE TRADE FLOW. WITH WARM SSTS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT... THERE IS STILL SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TWO-C COULD REGENERATE. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FILLING IN TO THE SOUTH OF TWO-C...THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST BARELY ABOVE ZERO. IN ADDITION 06Z GFDL RUN HAS REALLY BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEPS IT REAL WEAK THRU DAY 5. SHIPS STILL BRINGS IT UP IN INTENSITY BUT THIS IS SOLELY BASED ON SST POTENTIAL. ALL OTHER INPUTS TO THAT BASICALLY SAY STEADY STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM HOWEVER.
THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON TWO-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TWO-C WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN HISTORY WITH MANY OTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT FELL SHORT OF A PROMISING FUTURE. PROOF THAT DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY POWERFUL NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...IT TAKES A VERY DELICATE BALANCE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE ONE ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 11.3N 165.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/0600Z 11.6N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 169.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER NASH
The last advisory has been written.
WTPA43 PHFO 202045
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS NEVER ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE MAKE IT OR BREAK IT POINT IT REACHED LATE YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ HAD WANED YESTERDAY INTO LAST EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH TWO-C FADED QUICKER. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A MINIMAL CIRCULATION WITH A FEW WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MORNINGS PASS AROUND 17Z SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN TROUGH. EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY LOOPS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THUS BY DEFINITION TWO-C IS NO LONGER A LOW OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLARE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMNANTS OF TWO-C GET PUSHED WESTWARD IN THE TRADE FLOW. WITH WARM SSTS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT... THERE IS STILL SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TWO-C COULD REGENERATE. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FILLING IN TO THE SOUTH OF TWO-C...THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST BARELY ABOVE ZERO. IN ADDITION 06Z GFDL RUN HAS REALLY BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEPS IT REAL WEAK THRU DAY 5. SHIPS STILL BRINGS IT UP IN INTENSITY BUT THIS IS SOLELY BASED ON SST POTENTIAL. ALL OTHER INPUTS TO THAT BASICALLY SAY STEADY STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM HOWEVER.
THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON TWO-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TWO-C WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN HISTORY WITH MANY OTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT FELL SHORT OF A PROMISING FUTURE. PROOF THAT DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY POWERFUL NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...IT TAKES A VERY DELICATE BALANCE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE ONE ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 11.3N 165.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/0600Z 11.6N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 169.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER NASH
The last advisory has been written.
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- wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
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This was a classic example of the "Bust Effect".
Bust low - next time it will be overforecasted.
Bust high - next time it will be underforecasted.
It's usually how it works. Very rarely will a forecast be completely accurate.
Nash however, although his forecast was too bullish, did conclude this TD with a good "covering up the butt" - and I'm saying this as a compliment - since the last paragraph is very true.
Bust low - next time it will be overforecasted.
Bust high - next time it will be underforecasted.
It's usually how it works. Very rarely will a forecast be completely accurate.
Nash however, although his forecast was too bullish, did conclude this TD with a good "covering up the butt" - and I'm saying this as a compliment - since the last paragraph is very true.
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- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Well . . . dead to the public at least.
Models still coming out for it, as "Disturbance Two." Funny thing is that this is the most optimistic SHIPS has been since Two was upgraded to a TD.
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE TWO (CP022006) ON 20060921 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060921 0000 060921 1200 060922 0000 060922 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 166.5W 12.1N 168.7W 12.4N 170.7W 12.6N 172.7W
BAMM 11.6N 166.5W 12.1N 168.9W 12.5N 171.1W 12.7N 173.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060923 0000 060924 0000 060925 0000 060926 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 174.5W 11.8N 178.2W 11.0N 178.8E 10.5N 176.9E
BAMM 12.7N 175.5W 12.2N 179.9W 11.2N 176.5E 10.6N 173.8E
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS 64KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 166.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 163.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 161.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 55NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Models still coming out for it, as "Disturbance Two." Funny thing is that this is the most optimistic SHIPS has been since Two was upgraded to a TD.
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE TWO (CP022006) ON 20060921 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060921 0000 060921 1200 060922 0000 060922 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 166.5W 12.1N 168.7W 12.4N 170.7W 12.6N 172.7W
BAMM 11.6N 166.5W 12.1N 168.9W 12.5N 171.1W 12.7N 173.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060923 0000 060924 0000 060925 0000 060926 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 174.5W 11.8N 178.2W 11.0N 178.8E 10.5N 176.9E
BAMM 12.7N 175.5W 12.2N 179.9W 11.2N 176.5E 10.6N 173.8E
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS 64KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 166.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 163.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 161.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 55NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
06Z runs don't strengthenn it as much as before, but they are still bringing it up to a strong TS. Of course, that's still what they were doing when the CPHC dropped it . . .
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE TWO (CP022006) ON 20060921 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060921 0600 060921 1800 060922 0600 060922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 166.8W 12.8N 169.0W 13.2N 171.3W 13.3N 173.4W
BAMM 12.3N 166.8W 13.0N 169.3W 13.4N 171.6W 13.5N 173.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060923 0600 060924 0600 060925 0600 060926 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 175.4W 12.1N 179.2W 11.2N 177.9E 11.5N 175.6E
BAMM 13.4N 176.1W 12.6N 179.3E 11.6N 175.6E 11.7N 172.6E
SHIP 42KTS 48KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 42KTS 48KTS 55KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 166.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 165.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 162.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE TWO (CP022006) ON 20060921 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060921 0600 060921 1800 060922 0600 060922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 166.8W 12.8N 169.0W 13.2N 171.3W 13.3N 173.4W
BAMM 12.3N 166.8W 13.0N 169.3W 13.4N 171.6W 13.5N 173.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060923 0600 060924 0600 060925 0600 060926 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 175.4W 12.1N 179.2W 11.2N 177.9E 11.5N 175.6E
BAMM 13.4N 176.1W 12.6N 179.3E 11.6N 175.6E 11.7N 172.6E
SHIP 42KTS 48KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 42KTS 48KTS 55KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 166.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 165.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 162.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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- Category 5
- Posts: 1242
- Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:53 pm
- wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Now that it has reached the WPAC, it is looking a lot better:
Note that significant increase in deep convection.
An UL anticyclone is developing near it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... msshr.html
The CMC and in some ways the NOGAPS develop this. Although, due to its eastern position, I expect eventual recurve if it does.

Note that significant increase in deep convection.
An UL anticyclone is developing near it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... msshr.html
The CMC and in some ways the NOGAPS develop this. Although, due to its eastern position, I expect eventual recurve if it does.
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- P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Now a 1006hPa TD from RSMC Tokyo.
WWJP25 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 16.7N 108.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 50N 150E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 200
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 28N 137E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 46N 151E 55N 162E
50N 180E 43N 180E 43N 160E 46N 151E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 177E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 131E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 34N 123E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 38N 132E SE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 31N 170E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 40N 171E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 56N 177E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 133E TO 26N 135E 28N 137E 29N 140E 30N
146E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 39N 160E 35N 170E 34N 180E 34N
179W.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 980 HPA AT 37.7N 154.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WWJP25 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 16.7N 108.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 50N 150E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 200
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 28N 137E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 46N 151E 55N 162E
50N 180E 43N 180E 43N 160E 46N 151E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 177E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 131E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 34N 123E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 38N 132E SE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 31N 170E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 40N 171E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 56N 177E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 133E TO 26N 135E 28N 137E 29N 140E 30N
146E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 39N 160E 35N 170E 34N 180E 34N
179W.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 980 HPA AT 37.7N 154.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
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- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
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