GOM/Western Carribean SST's!(Scorching Hot!!!)

[StormTracker]

Has anyone noticed how hot the SST's are in the GOM & the West Carribean(in comparison to the Atlantic)? Maan, if anything starts up or gets in there with all other conditions ripe, it could make for a hell of a storm! I guess it's time for this area to show us what it has to offer!!! Keep your eyes peeled people!(This post is not intended to wreak havoc, instill fear or ruffle anyone's feathers in the GOM states...)

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[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah JB has been all over this. He says that the Gulf states will have to pay for this heat eventually...whehter it be from the tropics, severe weather, or winter storm systems. All that heat will act as added fuel.

[Derek Ortt]

perfectly normal for this time of year

[Extremeweatherguy]

actually, according to this map the GOM is 1-3 degrees above normal.

http://www.ssmi.com/hurricane/RT_images ... a_anom.jpg

[StormWarning1]

perfectly normal for this time of year

There above normal, not a lot, but at least 1-2 F.

The reason for this is because there has been nothing in the way of tropical activity to mop up some heat. Not even tropical waves are getting to the gulf.

[Derek Ortt]

even if the GOM is ever so slight above normal in terms of the SST, what is the heat content?

Warm SST means nothing if we have that typical cold water just beneath the surface, especially for the stronger storms

[ROCK]

this map takes into account heat content.


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


By this map we can see a lot of heat content undisturbed this season.

[StormTracker]

this map takes into account heat content.


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


By this map we can see a lot of heat content undisturbed this season.

So ROCK'S map does show that the GOM & WC not only have high and or slightly above SST's, but pretty high temps in heat content? Am I reading the data correctly? The channel that all of fish have been taking show pretty high temps too!!!

[MGC]

Why would the GOM and W Cab not have a high ocean heat content? There has been nothing there to upwell any cooler water this summer......MGC

[Stratosphere747]

Too much is read into the SST's/TCHP.

In fact the NW Caribbean and parts of the GOM are cooler this year, than the historic season of last year. Even with nothing there to upwell the water.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5263go.jpg

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6261go.jpg

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, so there might not be enough heat content to produce another 897 mb hurricane. Instead we could see perhaps a 934 mb hurricane. Would that not be bad enough for people down there who have been through so much? Not every hurricane that forms in the GOM needs to be a cat-4 or cat-5 to be dangerous. I would be more worried about a cat-1 or cat-2 approaching land with marginal upper level winds and then they become more favorable and BAM! we get a cat-3 or cat-4 right at landfall. Is there not enough heat content for that to happen? If not, then I suppose there is little to worry about for the rest of this season.

[hurricanetrack]

And, according to the latest NHC Reynolds chart, which is a few days old, but not many, the water temps in a good portion of the GOM are not perfectly normal for this time of year:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

I only say this because of what the map shows. If it is not right and the temps are normal, then the NHC or whoever compiles those maps might want to take a look at their data. But- perhaps Derek is correct, the new normal may be these high GOM temps. Normal may be a thing of the past. Don't read too much in to my contradicting Derek's post- I am just checking to see if SSTs are normal for this time of year or not, and according to this map, they are not- for the most part.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, so there might not be enough heat content to produce another 897 mb hurricane. Instead we could see perhaps a 934 mb hurricane. Would that not be bad enough for people down there who have been through so much? Not every hurricane that forms in the GOM needs to be a cat-4 or cat-5 to be dangerous. I would be more worried about a cat-1 or cat-2 approaching land with marginal upper level winds and then they become more favorable and BAM! we get a cat-3 or cat-4 right at landfall. Is there not enough heat content for that to happen? If not, then I suppose there is little to worry about for the rest of this season.

and it isn't just hurricanes we need to be worried about. The warm GOM will also likely lead to more of a severe fall storm season, and winter storms along the gulf coast will be capable of heavier precipitation.

[Deputy Van Halen]

I'm not up to speed on all the ridges and troughs and ULL's and whatnot, so does one of you have any idea if a storm like this one has a reasonable chance of happening this year?

[Stormtrack]

Major hurricanes this time of year in Texas are fairly rare due to the cool fronts which we seem to be having one after another of this year. Last year the trough train was late thus enabling Rita. Average date for first front to reach Houston according to Dr. Frank-Sept. 13.

[LaBreeze]

As the fronts become cooler and colder, it should have an impact on the temps out in the GOM. It should start to cool that simmering pot of water out there. At the rate these fronts are marching through here, that shouldn't be very long.

[BayouVenteux]

As the fronts become cooler and colder, it should have an impact on the temps out in the GOM. It should start to cool that simmering pot of water out there. At the rate these fronts are marching through here, that shouldn't be very long.

That said, we've been in this current pattern of pronounced troughing digging into the eastern 1/2 of the U.S. since around the last week of August. IMHO, we're likely due for a change in the pattern, which usually seems to occur after about 3 weeks or so. It wouldn't seem odd to me if we revert to an early October version of the pattern we experienced earlier in the season, with a more zonal flow across the U.S. and a returning ridge over Florida and the Gulf Coast, albeit an early autumn version rather than the midsummer strength. This is certainly not to say that the fronts will cease pushing southward altogether, just not with the same gusto as we're currently seeing...that 58 degree reading at the house made for a SPECTACULAR morning.

Meanwhile, the water in the Gulf is definitely getting cooler along the continental shelf, while out in the deep we're still looking at plenty mid-to-upper 80's. So there's still fuel out there, but fortunately without some tropically-induced fuse, it's just going to calmly, gradually, keeping getting cooler and cooler.

Here's to the promise that the only season everyone's talking about continues to be...FOOTBALL! Geaux Tigers! LET'S GO SAINTS!

[gatorcane]

As the fronts become cooler and colder, it should have an impact on the temps out in the GOM. It should start to cool that simmering pot of water out there. At the rate these fronts are marching through here, that shouldn't be very long.

That said, we've been in this current pattern of pronounced troughing digging into the eastern 1/2 of the U.S. since around the last week of August. IMHO, we're likely due for a change in the pattern, which usually seems to occur after about 3 weeks or so. It wouldn't seem odd to me if we revert to an early October version of the pattern we experienced earlier in the season, with a more zonal flow across the U.S. and a returning ridge over Florida and the Gulf Coast, albeit an early autumn version rather than the midsummer strength. This is certainly not to say that the fronts will cease pushing southward altogether, just not with the same gusto as we're currently seeing...that 58 degree reading at the house made for a SPECTACULAR morning.

Meanwhile, the water in the Gulf is definitely getting cooler along the continental shelf, while out in the deep we're still looking at plenty mid-to-upper 80's. So there's still fuel out there, but fortunately without some tropically-induced fuse, it's just going to calmly, gradually, keeping getting cooler and cooler.

Here's to the promise that the only season everyone's talking about continues to be...FOOTBALL! Geaux Tigers! LET'S GO SAINTS!

How about Go Gators! Everybody? Florida ranked #5 now after taking care of the Vols....

Anyway, I think the pattern could change like you said as we have been in this troughiness pattern for weeks now.

[TampaSteve]

How about Go Gators! Everybody? Florida ranked #5 now after taking care of the Vols....

Hell yeah...Gators RULE!!!

What a picture perfect morning for Atlantis to come home, too!

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB, who was DEAD ON with the last front (saying it would be the coolest since last spring, which it was), is now saying he expects an even stronger front the first few days of October. He thinks this front may be strong enough to bring an early end to the growning season across the plains.